0/ $BTC finished the year +85.4% which is actually the “worst” positive year on record (slightly edging out 2015’s +88.1%). Gains were entirely driven in the Feb-June time period with 2H19 decidedly negative (-33.3%) with 5 of 6 months closing in the red. 1/ If we look at total tx vol & daily tx vol '19 fell below both '17 & '18 levels at $768bn / $2.1bn respectively (using adjusted tx vol per @coinmetrics The theoretical cost basis of $BTC for all holders closed the year +21% to go along with that 85.4% increase in price.

0/ The divergence in $BTC positioning indicators between @BitMEXdotcom and @bitfinex is at the wides and haven't heard any good rationale as of yet as there are no obvious carry trades to be had between the two. 1/ If we look at $BTC funding rate on Bitmex Dec is on track for the lowest "high" since March and consistent with Nov for the tightest range since February.

0/ $BTC closed the month of October +10.5% snapping a 3 month losing streak into what historically has shown some strong seasonality for the crypto markets. 1/ Historically 4Q is the best quarter of the year for $BTC (followed by 1Q) last year was the first down 4Q since 2014 and the first down November since 2011.

0/ $BTC finished September down (13.5%) marking the third consecutive negative monthly close for the 12th time in 105 months. 1/ This meant $BTC finished 3Q (23.5%) the 5th worst quarterly performance dating back to 2012. Perhaps this shouldn’t have come as a surprise as this following 2Q’s +163.5% or the 3rd best quarter of all time

0/ $BTC finished it's 5th consecutive positive month in June which is the longest streak since July-November 2013. It had the best 3 month period since 4Q17 and the 4th best all time. 1/ The difference between the theoretical $BTC cost basis and current value is now at a 100%+ premium back to levels not seen since Jan '18. At the start of the last rally these are levels first seen in December of '16.

0/ Last week was the 8th best weekly performance for $BTC going back to 1/1/18 (top 11%) while it was the 11th best performance for $ETH (top 14%). Volume was down vs the prior week while the average close was the highest in two weeks with the lowest L/S ratio since 5/6-5/12. 1/ Looking at other top weekly $BTC performances during that time the subsequent weekly performance skews slightly + (57%) with the monthly performance negative (57.1%) that said 2 of the 8 weeks happened within the last month and those occurrences in '19 have been positive

0/ $BTC was +58.6% in May the best monthly performance since Nov of ’17, the 4th best month since 2013, and the 10th best month since 2011. 1/ Following a top performing month, $BTC subsequent performance skews surprisingly positive in the 1-3 months post which is likely attributable to the reflexivity of the asset class with these outlier months kicking off bull runs (or happening within them)

0/ $BTC funding rate on Bitmex has reached the top ~15% of observed periods over the past 5 days and currently stands there close to its' 7D average (of 0.23% / day). It reached the highest level since 5/4-5/7 of 2018 (when it was 0.45%-0.85%/day) 1/ Looking at historical $BTC funding periods >0.35% there's been 107 such occurrences with the overwhelming majority occurring in 2017 before Bitmex had any real market impact (for some reason May has been the most popular month with 25 observations or ~23.4%).

0/ February was the first positive month for $BTC performance since July of ’18 snapping a 6-month losing streak (the longest on record). And only the 3rd + month in the last 12. 1/ Notably $BTC vol was ~50% annualized over the course of the month. The lowest volatility month that had positive $BTC performance since April ’17 (+32.5% and / 31.2% annualized vol).

0/ As we look at $BTC price performance January was the 6th consecutive negative monthly return (and 8 of the last 9); surpassing the previous record streak of ~5. 1/ Looking at $BTC adjusted transaction volume January of ’19 saw the lowest average daily volume since April of ’17 at ~$1.3bn/day

0/ As we approach the end of January the average daily $BTC funding rate on @BitMEXdotcom will have it’s lowest ever high on a monthly basis of 0.0192% (Dec was the previous low of 0.03%). 1/ This is notable as it we’re starting to very slowly see signs of @Bitmex's influence retreating which should lead to a healthier spot market. Jan will mark the lowest % increase in the $BTC insurance fund since January of ’18 (when it was at 2,720 BTC vs. 21,600 last).

0/ The $BTC @bitfinex levered L/S ratio declined ~12.5% yesterday DoD a bottom ~5.0% move since the data was made public in Aug '17. This was driven primarily by long liquidations w/ a small uptick in shorts. At 1.294 last it's in the ~50% range over that period. 1/ Looking at prior instances where the ratio decreased that much on a % basis the subsequent 1-3D period skews slightly positive while the ~5-20D post continues the downward trend in $BTC price action.

0/ A look back at '18 which was the worst calendar year on record for $BTC (-70%) ended w/ 5 consecutive down months and 7 of 8 only the 3rd such time that’s happened June-Oct of ’14 & July-Nov of ’11. 1/ Looking @ $BTC's realized cap (thanks again @Coinmetrics) we saw the greatest divergence in mid-Dec b/w RC & spot price since the end of the bear market in Jan ’15 both bottoming -30.0% (this isn’t to suggest the selloff is done yet as ’15 bottomed at -43.3% vs. ’18 -30.7%).

0/ Thanks to @coinmetrics for rolling out their "Realized Cap" data. While definitely an imperfect measure it can also be used as a decent approximation of average cost basis of current holders. Let's look at $BTC below: 1/ At present the $BTC market cap is ~30.0% below the realized cap which is a bottom 0.3% of observed periods going back to 2013. The only periods of greater divergence was during January of 2015.

0/ $BTC continues to exhibit historic levels of underperformance- in the bottom 0.5% cumulative 20- & 30-day trailing returns back to ’13. The only period of worse cumulative 30D performance was earlier this year 2/3-2/6 where it was -48.9%, -57.8%, and -52.8% respectively. 1/ The market has a much different feel when that performance is off of previous YTD lows as opposed to the ATH. You continue to see near ATH levels of $BTC “turnover” which would seemingly suggest some signs of capitulation.

0/ $BTC positioning continues to skew short with Bitmex on track for it's 10th straight negative funding rate day and 18th out of the past 21 (since we broke $6K) w/ an avg daily funding of -0.21% over that time. 1/ This coincides with the @bitfinex L/S ratio in the bottom ~12.0% of observed periods down to 0.76 last.

0/ A thread on "Open Finance" post the @ShapeShift_io news yesterday. It seems like more and more people are holding onto the idea that $ETH will empower an era of Open Finance as the decentralized world computer vision hasn't quite worked as anticipated. 1/ Unfortunately this idea has been coined by a bunch of technologists that have never spent a day on Wall Street or in traditional Finance. The Finance Industry is the most regulated globally and for good reason. Let's take the US as a prime example.