What do you do Saturday morning when you stand to lose 500k on US Open outrights if Bryson wins? Sometimes hedging to reduce a loss is the right move, even if you didn’t overbet the initial wager. Here’s my discussion with @JTDPeabody:





The spreadsheet in screenshots is a proof of concept for something I’m hoping to build for @UnabatedSports. A generalized portfolio management tool for multiway markets like futures. A bigger, badder hedging calculator.

Today, we went live with our Props 2.0 product (beta) at @UnabatedSports. It's built with the same data science I use to bet Super Bowl props. It's easy-to-use, intuitive, and really powerful. Here's how it can help you: 👇 What is it? At its most basic level, it's a tool to see and compare player prop offerings at US books. But if that's all you're using it for, you're not getting the most out of it.

"Failing well" is so important, in sports betting & in life. Found a major bug in my golf code recently, stemming from an update meant to improve speed. A misplaced line of code. Since it only affected new data, it went undetected 20 weeks with effects compounding over time (1/6) We risked 8 figures based on a model not functioning properly, and it cost me a significant sum. But I view this bug is a positive. Not only does it explain my subpar results lately (making me more optimistic going fwd) but I expect it to be +EV for me in the long run. (2/6)

Lots of discussion on media coverage of BIG BETS this week. They’re click-bait-y. Novel. Maybe there’s some envy or schadenfreude at play. But that’s not the real issue. The problem is how operators control media coverage.
👇 I don’t find big bets nearly as problematic as, say, coverage of someone hitting a 12-leg parlay, but the reason we are inundated with this type of coverage is the same: the operators are deciding what is newsworthy and what isn’t.

DraftKings happily watching this FanDuel debacle, but don't forget how badly DK mangled the Sports Betting National Championship and its aftermath.

If DK had the same issues as FD did yesterday, past experience tells me they wouldn't have handled it any better. IMO, the way both companies have handled these types of issues is incredibly short-sighted. They spend billion on marketing and lose hundreds of millions a year, all to gain market share, yet fail to understand the damage done by short-changing customers after an operator mistake

So... I have coronavirus. I got tested Tuesday and am awaiting my result, but someone I lived with tested positive (I likely gave it to her). Based on the timing of my symptoms (started Sat 3/7) I'm afraid I may have been contagious at #SSAC20... My symptoms: I felt very tired and worn out all weekend, which I thought was due to a combination of travel and a bad night's sleep. I woke up with an "eye headache" (and sore eyes) on Saturday. I think I had a low-grade fever on Sunday (3/8). By Tuesday I was back to normal.

This thread will go through some of the #CFBPlayoff scenarios using results from @MasseyPeabody simulations and our model predicting the committee's behavior:

(1) Favorites all win.

Likelihood: 33%

OSU/LSU/Clemson 100%
Oklahoma 60%
Utah 39%
Georgia 1% (2) OSU/Clem/Georgia win. OSU/Clem 100%
a) OU/Utah win (12%):
LSU 95%
UGA 94%
OU 7%
Utah 4%

b) Baylor/Utah win (3.2%):
LSU 98%
UGA 97%
Utah 4%
Baylor 1%

c) Baylor/Oreg win (1.3%)
LSU 99%
UGA 98%
Baylor 3%

d) OU/Oreg win (5.4%)
LSU 97%
UGA 95%
OU 8%