Economist. Mainly UK economy. Also US & Euro Area. Macroeconomics, house prices & other stuff. Partial to fun charts. And fear, apparently. All views mine.
Nov 5, 2018 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
1. Some rougher-looking data on the UK economy this morning. Starting with new car sales, down -2.9%y/y in October. Growth figures have been hit by a couple of events over the past couple of years: the new VED regime and the more recent new emmissions testing regime. 2. As Howard points out here, the impact of the new emmissions testing regime is still working its way through the figures.
1. Sixth (can’t get enough!) in my series of threads looking at recent UK economic performance, from a national accounts viewpoint. History, not forecasts. Today is #Budget2018, so let’s take a peek at government spending's contribution to GDP growth.
2. The government spending that I’m going to focus on here – spending on newly produced goods and services (government consumption) and government gross fixed capital formation (government investment). This is only part of total spend. It excludes stuff like pensions and benefits
Sep 12, 2018 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
1.Fifth (on a roll now!) in my series of threads looking at recent UK economic performance, from a national accounts viewpoint. History, not forecasts. Today – housing, Help to Buy, the FPC & the economic growth boom in 2014.
2.The backdrop – the financial crisis and the huge fall in housing transactions, driven first by a crash in house price expectations followed by a massive tightening of credit standards by mortgage lenders.
Aug 21, 2018 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1. (Work in progress) – recent UK economic history from a national accounts perspective. A meta-thread. History, not forecasts. Will try to update reasonably regularly.
2. In which I set the scene and take a look at what’s driven growth since 2010, from net trade in 2011, to the investment surge in 2014 to the household spending slowdown in 2017 & 2018.