It's finally out! Pew Research's 2024 election analysis... Here's a 🧵of some hot takes: Trump's base has nearly doubled with Hispanics and tripled with blacks since 2016, decreased by 10 points among whites.

Democrats has decreased a total of 6 points among black and Hispanics... increased 4 points among whites

PA Absentee Ballot Request Update:

Dem: 1,177,242 (55.2%) +12,580 since 10/28
GOP: 685,011 (32.1%) +20,548 since 10/28
Indie: 271,702 (12.7%) +5,889 since 10/28

Change since 2022:
GOP: +396,341
Dem: +213,629

Change since 2020:
GOP: -76,713
Dem: -752,342

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1850940403417239911

Today is the last day of ballot requests, so I imagine tomorrow will be the last day of reporting.

Republicans are doing the best job they've ever done in a political cycle. And almost at 2020 levels, while Democrats are way down.

PA Absentee Ballot Request Update:

Dem: 962,256 (60.9%) +8,417 since 10/8
GOP: 435,862 (27.6%) +8,373 since 10/8
Indie: 182,359 (11.5%) +3,198 since 10/8

Change since 2022:
GOP: +136,598
Dem: -12,609

Change since 2020:
GOP: -336,456
Dem: -978,580

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1843658069554933829

Republicans are keeping up with Democrats on new ballot requests... something that they don't typically do.

I'm waiting till next week to see what it looks like with returns, where so far Democrats have a big advantage.

Twitter is really working hard on memory holing how bad polling was in 2020.

Yes, the RCP average for most of the Midwest was close right before the election but that's only because Traflgar and Insider Advantage moved the averages in PA and Michigan. In Michigan, the average was Biden +4.2 and he won by 2.8, but subtract Insider Adv. and Trafalgar and the polls were far outside the margin of error:

CNBC: Biden +7
Mitchell: Biden +7
Reuters: Biden +10
MRA: Biden +7
CNN: Biden +12
NYT: Biden +8
Fox: Biden +12
ABC: Biden +7

The trip to the border was eye opening. You really get the sense how little border enforcement there is.

I visited one migrant camp where about 100 migrants were waiting to get picked up. It was being run by Catholic Charities and had people from all over the world.





A local who’s been in the area knew about it. First thing I noticed was the migrants began recording me and my group the minute we showed up. It was about 80 adults and 30 children, the guy from CC said they were mostly fleeing from the cartel but that wasn’t true.

I understand that the establishment GOP media is trying to have this coordinated effort to takedown Trump… but they need to understand that no one likes them or trusts them either. Their pile on will make people more sympathetic to him.

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1590660593119162368

Also it cannot be stressed enough how bad the establishment GOP screwed up this election. If McConnell complains about not having enough money for Arizona, then he shouldn’t have spent millions in the Alabama primary settling a score with Mo Brooks

I read @pastpunditry’s oped in the Sunday Times about Pat Buchanan and was absolutely blown away at her lazy analysis of Buchanan’s political career. Rather than note he was the genius mind that convinced Nixon to try and court ethnic whites from the court and pushed Reagan to nominate an Italian-American to court to gain stronger footing with them. Or voice concerns about Japan’s attempt to put Harley Davidson out of business

When I attended Queens College, the school allowed an event called “How Islam Perfected Thanksgiving” where they invited the unindicted co-conspirator of the 1993 World Trade Center bombing as the speaker

https://twitter.com/madinatoure/status/1532360940993249280

The Muslim club also protested an event my College Republican Club held where we showed the film Fitna by Geerts Wilders. During a scene that showed the 9/11 attacks several members of their club laughed at the image of the Twin Towers being destroyed

(NBC News poll) is the country headed in the wrong direction/right direction

Wrong direction: 75%
Right direction: 16%

This is the worst number since the height of the financial crisis in 2008. Biden approval: 39%
Biden disapproval: 56%

Worst result in his presidency for an NBC News poll

(Monmouth poll - PA)

Democrat Senate Primary Favorable/UnFav:
Fetterman 68/5
Lamb 51/6
Kenyatta 51/6

GOP Senate Primary:
McCormick 51/15
Oz 48/37
Barnette 37/5
Bartos 28/6
Sands 25/4 Very Favorable/Very Unfavorable

Democrats:
Fetterman 42/2
Lamb 19/2
Kenyatta 12/1

GOP Senate Primary:
Oz 18/21
Barnette 15/2
McCormick 14/6
Sands 7/1
Bartos 5/1

The difference between the PA Gov debate and PA Sen debate is a world difference, the governor race is far more sober and the candidates are well spoken. The Senate race was a shit show My first criticism of Doug Mastriano is he shouldn't reference East Germany while dressing like a storm trooper

Most shocking part of the #PAdebate is that none of the Republicans are talking about deindustralization, opioids, China, raising wages, or immigration.

It's all I love Trump, natural gas, Biden is bad, Oz is a liberal.

Just really missing the mark on America First messaging The question is literally, "what does America First mean to you" and NOT ONE CANDIDATE mentioned immigration, China, declining wages, or opioids.

McCormick made a small remark about endless wars. Kudos to his team of 300 consultants who managed to teach him that.