עלי שלכת Profile picture
Biopharmaceutical chemistry patent practitioner 🧑🏻‍💼🧬 – Anonymous mainly for professional reasons 👾
12 Oct
Matt & Noah have pointed to this paper ('Effects of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio') as an example of an econ paper reaching a right-wing conclusion (incarceration of parents has positive externalities) the left reflexively opposes
aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…
Norris et al. try a real-world "quasi-experiment" based on sentencing disparities among Ohio judges

In the intro, the authors point to an Ohio-peculiar detail (in Ohio gov't aid isn't cut off from convicted felons) and a bleak remark about how prison increases TANF eligibility
The authors say they examined 1.9 criminal cases from 1990–2017 involving 670,000 defendants and their families

They conclude that children who are age 0–16 when a parent is first incarcerated are about ~5% less likely to later be incarcerated themselves

s3.documentcloud.org/documents/4641…
Read 7 tweets
30 Aug
Re-upping bc this is pretty comical—

the invention of the modern vice presidency was a comedy of errors

first, the Committee of Eleven comes up with the idea for the electoral college, but they're worried electors will always vote for candidates from their home state, so…
/1
…James Madison hatches the idea that every elector shall have two votes to cast for president, and only one such vote may be cast for a home-state candidate

Veep was basically invented as a reason to justify this two-vote method. The runner-up for pres would be veep… /2
…Further, veep was therefore thought the right position for presidential successor-in-waiting for vacancies because the veep would be the presidential runner-up

But what is the veep's job? The main reason they put veep in the senate is…they couldn't think of anything else…
/3
Read 7 tweets
28 Aug
I've taken a cursory look at the ivermectin phenomenon, and there's one figure who seems central to its initial rise: Sen. Ron Johnson /1
Hydroxychloroquine started trending almost immediately in the first week of March 2020. The spikes on Google Trends coincide with Trump tweets, (linked below)
There are also spikes for dexamethasone and regeneron around Trump's hospitalization

/2

thetrumparchive.com/?searchbox=%22… Image
Ivermectin first spikes in December 2020 coinciding with a committee hearing called by Ron Johnson, where ivermectin was discussed extensively /3

madison.com/wsj/news/local…

c-span.org/video/?507035-…
Read 8 tweets
11 Feb
It's fine, obviously, to look for some perspective and ask critically whether today's conspiratorial thinking is appreciably different from the past, but this doesn't hold up to even cursory analysis (beside that I think the attached graphic is bogus)
First, in Oct. 2020, Morning Consult found that 24% of polled adults thought Qanon somewhat accurate or very accurate. Among those who approve of Trump it was 42%, and among those who strongly approve it was 46% (28% say "very accurate")

assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/202…
Second, it's obvious that Qanon had and has major purchase in the Republican mainstream, including lawmakers and including *the last president* who left office three weeks ago. It's an eliminationist ideology that elicited an actual mob attack on the government itself
Read 5 tweets