Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Sai Profile picture
Sai
@Saiarav
Some funny mix of Hindutva and liberalism| Pro free markets| pro FOE| Energy markets| Fan of Ilayaraaja! N̶a̶h̶ Bruyat Satyam Apriyam| I block liberally!
Jun 8, 2024 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
The understanding of many of these RW handles about Modi govt's performance and its impact on the common man is so utterly superficial, it beggars belief.
Modi govt track record has been decent, but FFS don't delude urself that it was transformative for the poor. These jokers can't think beyond road construction (which is a good thing, no doubt) but how does it meaningfully impact the life of an avg person, enough for him to vote for Modi?
Consider this...in 2019, the median adult was probably earning 3-4k per month, that's it. Over the
May 25, 2024 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
This Piketty is the genius who concluded that inequality in India dropped during 1971-81 as the income of the rich grew relatively slowly. Do you know how he arrived at this conclusion? By looking at income disclosed by the rich to income tax dept. It didnt cross his mind that tax rates of 97% meant that the rich would pull all stops to minimize their taxable income! I'm not joking, you can read up the methodology - he specifically says the analysis doesn't factor in change in level of income disclosure in response to taxation policies.
May 4, 2024 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
Now that taxes on auto sector are a talking point, let us take a step back and look at the overall taxation structure of the Indian State.
Total taxes collected by centre and states put together should be in the 50-55T range - roughly 17-18% of GDP - which is actually pretty good for a country at our stage of economic development. I think China is around 20%.
Of this, fuel taxes contribute ~6T (i am talking of all this from memory, but I am directionally right). My rough estimate is GST on vehicles add ~3T and road taxes, perhaps ~1T.
Apr 27, 2024 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Long thread alert!
Whenever I state that the Muslim community needs to do more to repair the H-M faultlines which was greiviously widened due to partition, I keep getting two kinds of pushback: A) this is a loyalty test and B) why should Ms of today be held responsible for the acts of their forefathers. We can get the loyalty test part out of the way upfront - the founding fathers of this Republic had given a categorical promise to Ms that they will be equal citizens of this nation and it is our solemn duty to uphold it, a Bheeshma pratigya, if u will.
Apr 25, 2024 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Sheer dishonesty from the economic commentariat since the time Modi has taken charge has led many centrist folks and those in the Cong, who are RW on economics, to be sanguine abt economic policies under a future Cong regime.
I am willing to grant that some of the most extreme policies will not be implemented.
But please understand that, even then, it will represent a massive shift in the economic philosophy that underpins policy.
Most people do not realise the pernicious long term impact to policy from the Socialist ideas of Sonianomics which
Dec 18, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I have got some bad news for Yogi fans. There is nothing really in the GDP growth data which as of yet, points to Yogi being an economic miracle man. In fact, in his first 3 years , his record was arguably worse than Akhilesh 's.
And no, UP hasn't overtaken TN become #2.
Image One day, it will, as it should given its population is >2.5x of TN but currently it's not.
With the kind of unprecedented support the state is getting from centre and given its low base, UP should be growing 2-3% higher than the national average.
Nov 21, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
So Scroll wrote an entire piece abt poor fin of Railways w/o once mentioning biggest cause - salaries/pensions eat up 2/3 of revs. Its right there in PRS report the article copied half of its analysis from.
This is why one cant take seriously fin/eco pieces from communist rags.
Image The original PRS piece is a much more comprehensive one on the state of Railway finances.
Contrary to what Scroll claims IR poor finances hasnt been a prob In funding it's capex which has surged in the last 9 yrs.
But interest costs are going up due to extra budgetary financing Image
Aug 1, 2023 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
I have read the full report now and I am truly amazed at the level of torture of data done to arrive at a preset conclusion.
Let me first summarize the claim of the paper:
A) BJP won 41/58 LS seats in 2019 where the margin of victory was <5%. The normal expectation wld be that it wld win 50% or 29 seats, so BJP's strike rate is a 12 seat outperformance
B) The o/p can be attributed to either better electoral mgmt or electoral manipulation. The paper seeks to prove it is due to manipulation
C) There are two types of possible manipulation - deletion of
Jul 7, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
There is this playback singer Kalpana Raghavendra,daughter of famous actor Raghavendra. She converted to Christianity while in college. Her younger sister followed suit. In a few years, her grandmother was converted while in her deathbed. How did it all begin? Well, it started with some Christian groups coming to her house when she was young. Raghavendra allowed it, because, you know, all "religions are same". She slowly got influenced by this and by the time she was in college, had secretly become a committed Christian. By the time the dad found out
Jul 7, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
This budget from Siddharamaiah only again underlines what a set of political nincompoops Bommai and co are.
It appears that Siddhu has been able to make good on all his poll promises costing ₹52K cr but fiscal deficit is up by only 6K cr. How?
First, Bommai budget was very conservative on revenue receipts - factoring in only a 6% nominal increase. Siddhu's budget estimates a 12% increase - that's 12.5k cr more than Bommai's. 2nd capex budget has been cut by 7.5k cr vs Bommai's budget. Third, revenue exp is increasing only by 25k cr which means they
May 30, 2023 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
Here is the full report from Recession Rajan. I think, by now, RR has sufficiently demonstrated he is as much of an eminent economist as YoYa is an eminent psephologist. Media reporting this shoddy piece of shd at least mention that RR was part of BJY.
linkedin.com/posts/raghuram… RR's primary argument is that mobile manufacturing is low-value add, ie mainly assembling. No one really disputes that. But he then dishonestly comes up with a headline number that net imports of mobile and mobile parts hv gone up from $13bn to $21bn btwn FY 17-23. PLI Fail! ImageImage
May 28, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Ok, I was intrigued by this framing and read the piece.
And in contrast to Dagalti, i think this is what is fundamentally wrong with Jemo's critique of Savarkar and Hindutva. Fundamentalism is NOT a modern concept. It was a major force of the mediaeval era and Hindus were one of biggest victims of one of the most barbaric versions of that fundamentalism.
Hindutva is only a rearguard action of Hs who have been at the receiving end of fundamentalism of the semitic religions. The article is a farce because it doesn't mention, even in passing, to this issue
May 27, 2023 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
A close friend called me to explain the meaning of this poem called Kolaru Pathigam written by the great Thirugnanasambandhar (the one who was breastfed by Mother Parvathy as a child) . I really don't have words to describe it. I am totally unfit to explain this hymn - i hope someone with a deep knowledge of Tamil and Shaivite Bhakti tradition does justice to it. But for my own satisfaction, I will do a thread explaining the background and summarize the meaning.
First of all, all of you need to know
May 18, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Very honoured that the IT Cell has turned their benign attention on this non-entity and is explaining to me repeatedly about the wonders Modi govt has achieved on LPG cylinder distribution. ImageImageImage ImageImage
May 18, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
It doesn't give me any great pleasure to dunk on Nirmala S, but really what her credentials for arguably the second most impt job of this country - managing a $3.5T economy while taking on a highly dysfunctional, of not downright, diabolical babudom? Its an intensely political managerial, diplomatic and technical job.
Compare with other FMs
- MMS, a career bureaucrat and renowned economist
- YS, career bureaucrat
- PC, an inarguably brilliant mind, a top shot lawyer, a politician for decades and a minister from 1980s
- AJ, ditto as PC
- Pranab, ok, lol
May 17, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Some LPG math. The international LPG prices are now almost same as what they were in 2017, ie around $500/mt. But then why is even the unsubsidized price almost 70% higher?
Well, a big part of it is just Rupee depreciation. Then we have Rs.50 of tax grab via GST. Image But even after all this, my est for per cylinder price is around Rs.950. So why is the price at Rs.1050? Maybe I'm underestiming other costs and it is
close to 250. Other possibility is OMCs hv to recoup losses made over the last yr when prices had gone up to as high as $800.
May 16, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
LPG sales volume annual growth.
The govt removed subsidy in 2020 IIRC. On a per capita basis, 2022-23 growth was negative. The growth has slipped into negative territory in recent months.
Cong strategists picked the right issue for KA. Image Between 2004-05 and 2014-15. LPG consumption grew at an annual pace of 5.8%. Let's say 2% per year due to pop growth and rest ~4% due to increased penetration. We should be doing 4% at least every year since the penetration is still low.
May 8, 2023 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
A thread on actual voting figs in 1946 provincial elections in which Muslim League swept >90% of M seats as it ran on a single point agenda of partition.
And how Rupa has indulged in pathetic statistical jugglery.
TLDR: Number of Ms eligible to vote was way >14% First of all, these are provincial elections where Brits had direct control, ie it excludes the princely states. The pop of the provinces in 1946 was 30 crores. 41 crore adults were allowed to vote which translates into 28% of the adult pop. Now it is possible that the % of Ms Image
Feb 22, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Tambrahms as a community have been hugely successful - educationally and economically - meaningfully outperforming Brahmin communities from rest of india as well. What are the social and cultural factors behind this success? On the face of it, high value placed on education a disciplined lifestyle, importance given to religion and family, a strong sense of social identity and pride appear to a few factors. But this would have been true of many other B communities as well, no?
Feb 22, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
There is this argument that 2024 is a do-or-die battle for Cong & co and they will throw everything but the kitchen sink at it.
IMO it's wrong.
2024 is not the end. It's the beginning. They will keep getting more and more extreme with each election cycle.
And a big part of Bjp's defense consists of banking on Modi's stature. Will that continue into 2029? Will bjp get a successor half as charismatic post-M?
The only way bjp can continue to be a bulwark against anarchist forces is by delivering strong eco growth and much higher overall governance outcomes.
Feb 21, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
So Indians are now mocking fellow Indians by calling them Pajeets?
These pajeet fellows are beyond redemption. Online casteist trad mofos are literally the worst sentient beings on this hellsite and by God, it's not due lack of competition. Absolute POS.