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Joshua Salomon Profile picture
Joshua Salomon
@SalomonJA
Probabilistic optimist | Infectious disease, decision science, policy modeling, global health | Professor @StanfordMed | Director https://t.co/oOiHDwdlJ3
3 subscribers
Mar 1, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
1/ There's been much discussion on new CDC “COVID-19 community levels," anchored largely on predicted deaths.
How high will expected mortality reach before CDC recommends more prevention? Not specified, so @ambilinski and I decided to work it out.
Our inference: >1000 deaths/day. 2/ You’ve probably seen the new indicators already. You can find them on CDC’s site:
cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
Community levels are classified based on case rates, new COVID-19 admissions, and COVID-19 bed utilization.
May 13, 2021 • 6 tweets • 6 min read
3.3m COVID-19 deaths have been reported globally. How much higher is the true toll? Two sets of estimates out this month.
Last week @IHME_UW estimated 6.9 million total deaths (bit.ly/3boqAhT)
Today @TheEconomist estimated 7-13 million.
(econ.st/3w0hAYb)
Brief 🧵 2. At global level, @IHME_UW and @TheEconomist estimates of daily excess COVID-19 mortality are broadly similar, with the Economist cumulative mortality point estimate about 40% higher than IHME.

Sources
IHME: bit.ly/3boqAhT
Economist: econ.st/3w0hAYb
Sep 7, 2020 • 19 tweets • 6 min read
1. Did the latest @Ihme mortality forecasts making the media rounds - 410,000 deaths - seem high to you?

Yeah, me too. I wanted to understand what’s driving projections of 220K more deaths by New Years.

So, I tried to peek under the hood, as best I could.

Buckle in. A thread. 2. First observation: the methods really need to be easier to find and vet.

Optimally, publish all code.

At least, have every update point clearly to the technical document with full model details. Right now, the FAQ and results updates point to old model versions. Image