Today Tories accused Labour of wanting to make the UK “the dumping ground for many of the millions of illegal migrants that Europe doesn’t want”

This is because Keir Starmer has said again today he wants to negotiate a “returns agreement” with the EU, and the “quid pro quo” would be accepting quotas of migrants from the EU

Earlier in the summer, Rishi Sunak was attempting to negotiate his own returns agreement. Tim Barrow’s negotiation stalled (see @matt_dathan below) - and we don’t know the precise terms - but would almost certainly have involved UK taking a share of EU migration.

Some in the home office came across as less enthusiastic than No10 on this




In May at the Council of Europe in Reykjavik, Rishi Sunak pushed fellow leaders to discuss a new returns agreement.

However @matt_dathan reported in August the commission was not open to a UK-EU readmissions agreement.

The Times saw notes of a meeting between Bjoern Seibert, von der Leyen’s head of cabinet, and Sir Tim Barrow, Britain’s national security adviser and former ambassador to the EU

Bloomberg:

UK debt has risen 40% since the pandemic start, leaving debt now at 100.8% of GDP - and we are paying more to service that debt “than any other advanced economy”

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Only Japan has seen a bigger +rise+ in debt, though Japan, US, France and Italy nations have a bigger % debt to GDP

This is intriguing. Why is there just 1 Council out of 230 outstanding?

Redcar Council👇🏻 says that they’ve agreed to delay a *third* recount of Longbeck ward until Tuesday morning

According to Teeside Live, Longbeck ward is where CURRENT Cleveland Police and Crime Commissioner… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… This story from local journalists about Steve Turner is fascinating

It says Turner’s wife - who is leader of the Conservative group - was involved in selecting him as a candidate in the same word as her

gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-…

Arriving at the Elysee and Sunak and Macron prepare to talk small boats, VERY worth reading this Commons refresher on multiple cash injections to France so far….

More than £300m in UK to Fr payments since 2014

researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-… And the success rate of the French?

Stopped 42.5% of people, intercepted 53% of boats

I haven't read it all, but please feel free to highlight the best bits

P1-14 of Portland's How Labour Works

This exchange between Sky @KamaliMelbourne and minister Chris Philp feels significant

Philp sent out with careful phrases - PM "understood no outstanding tax issues at the time" of appointment.

And didn't know of "discussions"

This doesn't preclude Sunak knowing a fair amount Sunak could have known there was an issue - but was told that it had been concluded with HMrC and judged that it was resolved politically

And "discussions" formulation is so wide - what discussions wasn't he aware of? He wouldn't haven't been aware of the detail of them anyway

Swiss? This reads like Theresa May's Chequers deal may be back...

Time to dust off some old spreadsheets

thetimes.co.uk/article/d9a5bc… Historical note: Rishi Sunak voted for Theresa May's brexit deal each time

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamen…

Bloomberg report that the so-called black hole is £35bn

Understand this is broadly correct...

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1585235202124795908

NB - importantly this is not a £35bn/ £45bn a year gap that needs to be filled

It's over a longer timeframe - and comes after reversal of entire mini budget

So that's a MUCH smaller hole that needed filling just a few days ago

Downing Street denying any changes to mini budget but I'm told by sources discusssions underway over which bits might yet be junked give the scale of the concern

Looking at a return to the mandate from the leadership contest

No clarity on timing of announcement if it happens This follows this The Times @oliver_wright reporting this morning officials say she should rip up tax plans

thetimes.co.uk/article/5d2459…

Just look at today's💥Institute for Fiscal Studies report from a moment

It says you need 😬 £62 billion 😬 a year in cuts to stabilise debt - 50% more than Osborne in 2010

How?

🥶 15% Whitehall cuts outside NHS / Defence
🥶Raise benefits by inflation
🥶Cut investment spending Here IFS warns the Office for Budget Responsibility might come under enormous political pressure to soften forecasts - eg by scoring benefits of tax cuts and reforms more generously than they would be inclined

At Tory conference, cabinet anger at OBR methods easy to find

💥Sky / YouGov focus group💥

One month of Truss: what the Blue Wall think

Seven 2019 Tory voters spoken to in depth by YouGov and filmed by @SkyNews

Organised by @TomLarkinSky @PME_Politics

This 🧵is 10 themes it threw up 1. None of them said they were certain to vote Tory

Andy Burnham tells @SophyRidgeSky that in government, a Labour administration +should+ reverse the income tax cuts announced on Friday.

That goes further than shadow cabinet ministers, who say they'll oppose the 45p rate abolition now but support the basic rate cut @SophyRidgeSky The Mayor of Manchester says the income tax cut isn't targeted enough.

But the Labour frontbench have said they'd vote against 45p rate abolition but not 20p.

They want to wait until they've seen economic forecasts until deciding what happens in government / manifesto

As politics reaches warp speed and The Truss makes big announcements, heres five things we're finding in my big read:

1. New ministers telling their predecessors they got it wrong 2. Who are the new A-Team getting to work

Full analysis

There are five big unknowns about Liz Truss's energy plan - and they could determine her political future

news.sky.com/story/there-ar… Analysis - overview of a plan which poses lots of big questions

ITV Leadership debate first half

** Sharper, rougher disagreement on the economy. Sunak’s “taxes choke economic growth” says Truss. Truss “socialist economics” says Sunak. Mordaunt suggests third way
** Liz Truss goes up a gear attacking Sunak, admitting “not a slick presenter” ** Badenoch the only candidate to suggest a different approach on strikes - rather than “be tough” Truss message, she says more respect for unions is needed

** Tugendhat focuses on military service when facing questions on lack ministerial experience

There’s an Urgent Question underway in the Commons on the story 👇👇I wrote about Eadie and the NI Protocol Bill for the Politics Hub last night

(I’m on the train to a Boris Johnson speech so not in Commons to watch)

1/

https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1534598295305261056

2/ Lib Dem spox Alistair Carmichael says it's matter of "fundamental import" to this House and has put the First Treasury Counsel in "an almost impossible situation".

I’m at Welsh Tory conference today where the party emerged bruised from the local elections

and the debate reflects Senedd not national politics so Tories present themselves in opposition to Labour

No-one is calling for the PM to go for #partygate - but it’s not terribly upbeat

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1527624263842275328

The PM and Welsh Secretary Simon Hart are the only cabinet members here today, with a smattering of MPs and the hall just over half full.

So is there a division in government over the Northern Ireland protocol? If so what is it and who is on what side?

There’s an intriguing clue in @ChrisMasonBBC analysis last night

He writes this: It’s from here: bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…

This is an interesting line. A controversial one

It suggests some things on HMG wish list are higher priority than others, making negotiation much easier

But there was no sense of this two tier approach from Liz Truss in the Commons..

Exclusive: YouGov model results for 16 key council races

First up London: YouGov say Wandsworth voters “leaning” Labour and they might pick up others reaching new highs compared to 2018 Then the South of England

Southampton leaning Labour say YouGov - which would be a big win - but other councils like Crawley which ought to be on a Labour wish list too close to call

Ahead of tomorrow’s council election I’m in Peterborough today - a Tory minority controlled council

- Are own label foods an answer to the cost of living, as a cabinet minister suggests
- Are claims about Keir Starmer having beer and curry mid pandemic cutting through? 2/ The run up to these local elections have had lots of twists and turns.

Will the events of the last week make a difference? Or local issues dominate?

Will be popping up through the day with guests

Exclusive:

Rishi Sunak has donated over £100,000 to Winchester College

Donations to the school where he was head boy have continued in his role as as Chancellor

Donations mean he is in the “Wykeham Benefactors” club

Latest Winchester College magazine:

More/ 2/ Chancellor’s spox:

“Rishi and his wife have donated to numerous charities and philanthropic causes for many years and will continue to do so.

“These donations are made to help fund scholarships for children who would not otherwise have the opportunity to go to Winchester.”