Thread: Why don't Rugby teams use Motion more often?

Can rugby take something from NFL? We often talk about the show in NFL, but is there something far more fundamental that rugby can steal from an NFL tactic?

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What is motion? Well, in the NFL you can move one player sideways (not forwards) before the ball is snapped. It was occasional and is now seen on basically every attacking play. Very simply, it confuses the defence my moving the chess pieces around.

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https://twitter.com/EdwinSphere/status/1625222752780320769

Brief Thread: The Idea isn't the same as the Execution

I saw the below on the weekend and it made me think about how this would be treated at a grassroots club, and maybe at a pro club as well...

1) Cardiff make a great turnover here through Lopeti Timani. The ball ends up back with Jacob Beetham at 15 who doesn't really have any other options here. This is often the case after a turnover.

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Thread 1: Can you Measure Playing Style? In this first thread, I take a look at how it might be possible to measure a team's playing style and whether we can answer the question in the poll below.....

@Oval_Insights data used throughout!

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https://twitter.com/SamLStandsUp/status/1726587667746619438

I read this excellent article by @AFHStewart and @pwawrzynow a month ago. It made me think how we might be able to achieve this in rugby. Rugby is very early in these discussions, but we can still make a good start.

This is that start.

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analyticsfc.co.uk/blog/2022/08/0…

Thread: A Map of Rugby

There's a lot of terminology in rugby that is taken for granted and isn't always explained. I thought I would try and help.

Different teams/countries will use different language so this isn't a dictionary. But should help you find the way!

1) The Gain Line

Imaginary line across the pitch. Sometimes from where the ball is (black) sometimes the back foot of the ruck (pink). I prefer where the ball is.

Get over the gain line (good teams do it 50%+) and the defence moves back and are less able to be aggressive.

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Thread: What do the Stats Tell us About the Game of the Weekend?

I probe the stats provided by @Oval_Insights to take a closer look at that classic!

1) Wales last lost to Fiji at the World Cup in 2007. In that game in Nantes, they made the cardinal error of trying to match Fiji at their game plan.

In 2023 they were in danger of doing the same thing in a game of two halves...

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There's a lot grassroots rugby coaches can learn from Bazball.

It's not that you have to be super aggressive. Plenty of teams are successful without that. It's that you have to accept the risk you want....

1) If you setup to play a high risk game (attack from anywhere, offload, short chipped kicks, aggressive defence) then that's fine. But you have to accept that people will therefore make mistakes.

You can't setup to play like that and berate players when mistakes come.

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Thread: Why does the 'unseen work' matter?

I'll be doing a series of threads in the run up to the World Cup which look at parts of the game which often aren't explained. In this first one I look at what unseen work is and why it's important.

1) Unseen work isn't really unseen, after all, I'll be showing you examples of it in this thread. It's often not talked about though and rarely appears in the mainstream statistics we see. But it's vital and the lack of reporting means that some players get undervalued.

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Thread: Attacking the Blindside

What can you learn from the professionals to improve your blindside attack?

1) First of all, what is the blindside? The blindside is the side of the ruck/maul, or scrum, closest to the sidelines. In the below photo, the blue line signifies the blindside with the green line the openside.

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Thread: The Fragile Welsh Defence

In a poor contest, the Welsh defence has probably marginally edged out the Welsh attack. Against Italy, the opposite was true. Let's find out why.

1) In this thread I'll be using two terms a fair bit:

- Connectivity
- Line Speed

A good defence is connected. But, not connected as a continuous line. Instead, it's connected in overlapping groups of three defenders, like below.

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Stats question for you. I'm writing an article on penalties conceded. Two polls for you below.

First Question: Do you reckon where penalties are conceded matters more than how many are conceded?

1) Which pitch zone do you think the highest % of penalties are conceded in?

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A significant issue with rugby is people's inability to accept that great players can have bad games and decent players can have great games.

The same people who hated EJ for dropping young players are now calling for the dropping of young players.

1) Players are promoted on here off the back of a few good games. Then they make it into the squad. Don't immediately play like a World player of the year. Then people want him gone for the next guy who has had a few good club matches.

And the cycle starts again.

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Thread: How to Win the URC

I wrote this guide on how to win the URC using nothing but stats. Of course, it was a little facetious but two key things emerged from it; retaining kicks and 22 entries. Here I plunder @Oval_Insights data to find out more.

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unitedrugby.com/latest/news/ho… Let's start with retained kicks. On average, URC teams retain 14% of their kicks. Perhaps unsurprisingly, there is the start of a correlation between something as small as retained kicks and overall league position.

Why might that be?

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Thread: Which is the most important phase?

Oval Insight have yet again let me loose on their database to share some of the topics which I am most interested by. This time we're looking at which phase is most effective.

1) As per usual, we're talking Try Equivalents here. I've put an explainer below, but I'll also explain in brief here why I think they are best for exploring here.

https://twitter.com/SamLStandsUp/status/1517449602265493504

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Thread: The Third Set-Piece

Oval Insights have once again let me into the database to take a look at the third set-piece, the ever important kick-off. It was the only thing Scotland didn't do well on Saturday. How do teams approach it?

1) For starters, someone sent me some feedback from Reddit that my threads are overly repetitive. I wouldn't be a good analyst if I didn't take feedback of my own performance onboard so I am going to try and incorporate that moving forward!

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Thread: Teithio Amser in Welsh (Time Traveling)

In the 2018 Six Nations, Gatland's penultimate one, Wales beat Scotland by near enough the same scoreline Scotland beat Wales by yesterday. Now, I'm assuming we can use vids from that game. So let's look at something.

1) Off the back of the thread I did yesterday about the lack of options yesterday for Wales, let's look at what they were doing in 2018 from an almost identical attacking platform at an almost identical time of the match.

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Thread: Welsh Individualism

I'm going to assume vids will get taken down so I'll use screenshots for this. This is focusing on one attack in the second half from a Welsh lineout.

1) If you want to beat a modern defence, you need to cause them confusion. One way to do that is to have multiple options. Receive the ball and the opposition don't know if you'll carry or pass. They can never fully commit to any one option.

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Thread: The regular rebuke to the regular article regularly ridiculing data in rugby

Why data doesn't pose a threat to traditional rugby fans despite how much some of the traditional writers bang on about it.

1) Every year at least we get an article from a long standing rugby writer floridly explaining why data in rugby is a ridiculous concept. It always reads like something written by a man who hand builds cars, explaining why robotics is something shameful nerds do.

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Thread: The Most Effective Lineout

Oval Insights have given me the key to their database to look at the lineout. Can we find out what the most effective lineout is? Can we find tendencies?

1) I asked earlier what the most effective lineout is. As it stands, with 20 mins left, the results are as follows:

Maul - 34.1%
Fake Maul - 28.2%
Off the top - 27.7%
To Ground then Pass - 10.1%

We'll investigate if you're right later. But first, let's look at some basics.

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Thread: Did Wales kick too much in the first half against Ireland?

Feat: Why do teams kick? What types of kick are there? What does it mean to kick too much?

1) First of all, I want to make a bit of a broader point. The Six Nations brings a huge number of additional fans to the game. At least 30x more people watch 6Ns matches than watch Prem matches for example.

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Thread: Getting Involved

A Damian Penaud guide to influencing play without the ball and picking your moment.

1) On a rugby pitch you always have a job to do. Maybe that's something as simple as holding width or maybe it's a more active role like hitting a crash ball line. Regardless, if you don't have a job, you're not being effective.

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Thread: What should France do in the Six Nations?

How can they use their hybrid players to exploit advantages from the scrum? This is gonna require some open minded thinking....

1) You don't need to have your number eight at the back of the scrum, in fact, you don't need to have your number eight even in the scrum or any of your non-front row players. What happens if you mess around with this?

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