Stock Market peaked in October 2007 while the Fed started to lower rates in September.

That's the tweet.

Insightful 🧵pulled from DM with @GraphFinancials
1/8 Remember:

New Century mortgage originator filed for bankruptcy in April 2007.

6 months before.

2/8

My Bloomberg Interview Notes - "Can The Rally Hold?"

Bloomberg hosts, Vonnie Quinn and Abigail Doolittle, have invited me on to talk about the macro backdrop I see forming as we head into the 2nd half of 2024.

In a 7 minute segment, no way can I get my perspective across, but in preparation for the interview Tuesday, I put together the following notes which I had sent to clients.

Here's the interview; Below the notes 🧵

What’s Bullish For Markets Into Year End?

1. Forward earnings growth. Actual earnings have been basically flat for 6 quarters, but EXPECTATIONS have triggered a closed loop of equity outperformance. Stocks have risen on strong forward earnings which are strong because analysts expect a strong economy supported by higher stocks.

I watched all of this interview and felt it was balanced/professional enough to recommend you watch as well.

Absent public health interventions... Dr Gabriel Leung Dean of Medicine in Hong Kong offers the following best-guess projections: 1/4

Dr Leung... 2/4

1. Fatality rate of 3-5% is underestimated (SARS was 17%). Data needs time to track from Infection to Symptoms, Diagnosis, Treatment + Result (recovery or death).