1. I see @afneil is asking supporters of an iScotland what currency they’d use and is yet to get an economically sensible reply so let’s look at the options.
2. The SNP would most like to keep the £ and still have some say or influence over monetary policy and the ability to print money. For obvious reasons this is not going to happen.
May 28, 2020 • 9 tweets • 1 min read
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Oct 2, 2019 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
1. Can’t believe I’m having to do this over 3 years after the ref, but there’s still a popular narrative amongst the more extreme Remainers that the ref was only won due to lies and sinister uses of technology by the Leave campaigns. So let’s have a look at the big picture.
2. Since the first ever election or vote, candidates and proponents have used a wide variety of devices to try and win. Bending the truth, propaganda, twisting facts, favourable interpretation of data and putting out dubious forecasts have been widespread.
Sep 3, 2019 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
1. As we can all see, Remainers are saying, as if it’s a fact, that a no-deal Brexit would be a disaster, a catastrophe for the U.K.
Where has this assertion come from all of a sudden? Does it have any substance? Is it in fact, a fact?
Let’s take a look.
2. There have been several forecasts from HMG, NIESR, Panmure Gordon etc modelling the impact of a no-deal Brexit over the next 12 years or so.
They estimate that a no-Deal situation would result in the GDP of the U.K. being around 5-8% lower than if we had remained.
Apr 3, 2019 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
1. It’s funny. As I go about my day to day life around this country I see a fantastic nation. Yes it has its faults, but it’s full of kind, humerous, hard-working, tolerant people. Genuinely one of the least racist and xenophobic places on the planet.
2. I see our world-class expertise in areas such as finance, law, technology, education, arts and media. I meet truly inspiring entrepreneurial people creating top class companies and businesses. I think of our strong linguistic and cultural ties to many parts of the world.
Feb 28, 2019 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1. Shoot me down if you want but I’m seeing two different stories here. On the one side we’ve got politicos, media commentators, academics, luvvies etc grasping inaccurate forecasts based on hopelessly outdated and innacurate methodologies to rubbish the UK economy.
2. On the other side we’ve got businesses, the employers and wealth creators having to massively up their game in the light of change and uncertainty, with an eye to still being there in the future.
Nov 30, 2018 • 19 tweets • 3 min read
1. A short thread on economic forecasting. I used to work as a trader at some well known financial institutions. We were bombarded daily with forecasts and predictions from some very well known economists. As traders who wanted to keep our jobs we learnt to mainly ignore them.
2. A good case in point would be the USA non-farm payrolls, a very important economic indicator that would move markets. Every month Bloomberg would publish 100+ economists forecasts for last month’s figures. Every month 100+ economists would get it wrong.
May 9, 2018 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
1. How Economic forecasting works. A. Construct grossly simplistic model, otherwise factors like emergence, fat tails, black swans etc make model unworkable. B. Find historic data set that fits model. C. Ignore correlation=/= causation arguements. D. Extrapolate to future.
2. Ignore date that shows economic forecasting is grossly innacurate and worse than random at time-scales of any significance. Ignore the fact that Economics is the only science whose Nobel was won by a non-specialist: a psychologist.
Jan 30, 2018 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
1. Have friends who run a medium size financial services business. UK based but recently they’ve looked to expand globally.
2. They’ve said that SM in services doesn’t exist and passporting is a red herring. What matters is that in each country you have to deal with that country’s regulators, employment and tax regime etc.
