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Labrador Skeptic Profile picture
Labrador Skeptic
@SaysSimulation
Seeker. Husband. Father. Populist. Producerist. USDA Zone 5B. Proudly Midwestern. Heartland Enthusiast!
14 subscribers
Jun 23 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
One of the biggest issues facing the US is that the "elite" groupthink / propaganda is so appallingly bad. Case in point, today's WSJ analysis of Iran trying to close the Straits of Hormuz (link follows).

By unanimous consent, the Houthis closing the Red Sea never happened.
1/ "The saber-rattling has conjured memories of the attacks on oil tankers traded by Iran and Iraq during their conflict in the 1980s. U.S. warships patrolled the region and eventually began escorting some commercial ships, in operations that turned deadly."
Jun 22 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
I'm seeing replies addressing right or wrong in this & related threads. Yes, this is how the justifications are presented, but this can't be seen in isolation.

The adult framing HAS to be how to use limited resources to navigate a difficult world with many challenges.
1/ Because of decades of military, political and economic decisions, the US finds itself wanting to act a global military superpower, but without the defense manufacturing base to back it up.
2/
Jun 22 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
I'm seeing a lot of silly talk about the US strikes on Iran's nuclear program. This isn't a one off, it didn't start or end here.

What matters is the global chess board over the next 5-10+ years, and whether a third front has been opened that will consume US strength.
1/ As I've written about in numerous threads, the US has some fantastic weapons that were only made in moderate numbers, and that it cannot currently manufacture at scale or quickly. If the US uses up too many of them too quickly, such as interceptor missiles, then the US loses.
2/
Jun 20 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
US national security in the medium-term is being dealt a devastating blow as a result of the political inability to say "no" to Israel.

As discussed in the thread below, and updated in today's WSJ (link later), Israel is running out of missiles, and the US doesn't have enough
1/ From today's WSJ: "U.S. Races to Defend Israel as It Burns Through Missile Interceptors"

"Short supplies of high-end defenses could lead to rationing as Iranian attacks continue"
2/
Jun 19 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The news from Israel is so good that it contradicts itself. Israel has total air superiority, and has devastated Iranian launcher capabilities. Also, Israel is intercepting 90% of Iranian missiles.

But - too many missile are getting through for both statements to be true.
1/ If Israel has devastated Iranian launchers then Iran isn't launching 100s of missiles daily - so a lot more than 10% are getting through.

If only 10% are getting through, then Iran must still have hundreds of active launchers, so Israel hasn't destroyed them.

Which is true?
2/
Jun 18 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Reality beats the Narrative, and that is true even during the hyperventilating propaganda of a new Mideast war. As I've been writing about for years, the reality is the US doesn't have enough missiles.

Per the WSJ (video link later), Israel is running out of Arrow 3 missiles.
1/ Israel uses a four part layered antimissile missile defense, and the Arrow 3s are the "crown jewels" of their system, the interceptors for long-range ballistic missiles.

As covered in the video, the Israelis claim to have shot down about 90% of the 370 Iranian missiles shot.
2/
Jun 13 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
As war in the Middle East heats up, with potential near term involvement for US forces, the biggest 2nd order effect in US history may be on the way.

The unified nationalist, patriotic US is gone - it's been murdered. Instead we have an extraordinarily powerful 5th column.
1/ The danger is fundamental - and deep.

Yes, there are likely thousands of explosive drone prepositioned near US military bases - it would be surprising if there weren't.
2/
Jun 8 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
"You may not be interested in civil war, but civil war is interested in you."

This is obviously insurrection, but it is also - effectively - the policy of the Democratic party. The LA & CA police are *allowing* this violence to occur, as they did in the "Summer of Floyd".
1/ Terrorist assaulting federal offices and facilities should have obviously been shot dead on the spot.

Instead, they are effectively enabled by the Dems, as this extraordinary level of violence is treated as a legitimate form of protest.
2/
Jun 3 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Zelensky knew about this when meeting with Trump in the Oval Office, as he knew about the drone airfield strikes in Siberia. For the record, Ukraine never, every had the slightest real interest in a ceasefire.

Choice made. By Ukraine. The US was not part of this.
1/ Two nations, that are not the US, are fighting it out. Their business. Ukraine has been losing on the battlefield, and has made the choice of asymmetrical warfare. They are going to try to hurt Russia as bad as they possibly can. Valid strategy, their choice.
2/
Jun 2 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Speaking of European delusions, Macron just gave a speech in Asia (WSJ link following), in which he appealed to Asian nations to ally with Europe in order to achieve "strategic autonomy" from the US.

This is an extreme case of the difference between Narrative & Reality.
1/ The Reality is that nations such as Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines face growing military threats from a rapidly militarizing China - right now.

Reality is that Europe can't defend itself, and has ZERO ability to project effective military power in Asia.
2/
Jun 2 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
Starmer claiming that the UK will build 12 new nuclear subs needs to be evaluated using one of my favorite themes, which is the Narrative vs Reality. This applies to European militarization in general.

The Narrative is awesome, but the physical Reality is likely to be vapor.
1/ The Narrative is the official version of the Truth. It is what the average person is told is reality, and it is spread by the govt, academia, business & all media. There is no dissent allowed, and average citizens disagreeing with the Narrative can lead to imprisonment.
2/
Jun 1 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Repeat after me... this is a proxy war. As has been admitted by numerous US & European politicians, "our" side is using Ukrainian soldiers & Western weapons to damage Russia militarily.

What "our" proxy just did, was to unleash a Pearl Harbor event on Russia's nuclear bombers
1/ What did Pearl Harbor lead to? It led to the utter destruction of Japan, and it turned a European war into the most global war in history.

Do we in the US really want another Pearl Harbor? Are we genuinely seeking WW III?
2/
May 30 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
We have a fascinating time ahead of us, that will also form an evolutionary bottleneck of sorts.

With every passing month, it will be ever harder to tell AI posts, images & video from the real thing. We think we can do it now, but every 3-6 months the illusion will be better.
1/ Sites can attempt to gatekeep, but it will get ever harder, by an order of magnitude, at least once a year. And who's really trying now?

We will come to the place where everything, every digit we receive online, must be suspect as a likely lie.
2/
May 29 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
The salient question for the coming years is whether the rapid imperial decline of the GAE can be reversed.

Some are hoping that Trump can do so, but having a judicial tyranny by 677 Federal judges, would not only stop this, but would radically accelerate the rate of decline.
1/ What the Dems, their supporters, the media and the permanent govt have in common is that they are demonstrably dumber than f*ck. When they want something badly, likely overturning the 24 election, they just go for it without thinking of the 2nd or 3rd order effects.
2/
May 27 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
This is a good example of the increasing Complexity vs decreasing Competence trend that defines our world.

Let's think of Competence as being societal, rather than individual. The dysfunction in what prevents building is growing much faster than the ability to build.
1/ Since then, we've had 60-70 years of Civil & Mechanical Engineering progress in terms of design, materials and machinery. We've also had the entire computer revolution - the original Interstate system was hand drawn on drafting tables, using slide rules for calculation.
2/
May 26 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
The rapid rise of China was not natural or inevitable, but was enabled by Leftists like this Atlantic writer at every step, as they try to destroy Heritage America.

Chinese students never subsidized anything for American students. Rather, they enabled administrative bloat.
1/ The costs of college rose at a rate far exceeding the official rate of inflation for 25 years. If we want to talk about facts - college was much more affordable for Americans before the big wave of Chinese & other international students began.
2/
May 25 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
Elements of the Federal judiciary are considering moving from an effective judicial coup to an actual coup (WSJ link follows).

In a stunning overturning of the Constitution, judges want the US Marshalls to report directly to them, and to arrest Executive branch members.
1/ "Amid rising tensions between the Trump administration and the judiciary, some federal judges are beginning to discuss the idea of managing their own armed security force."
2/
May 18 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Civil war is coming back on the table, and the Supreme Court would be responsible - but, they are too out of touch to understand the danger.

The judiciary is pure elitism, always has been. As high elites, the SC see Trump as a renegade, controlling the populace.
1/ When I say they are elite - that is their entire world. Lawyers, academics, politicians, reporters, other judges - they have nothing to do with ordinary people

Deep inside the elite echo chamber, the judges don't realize just how angry the people in their tens of millions are
2/
May 6 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Leftists taking over quaint small towns needs to be seen for what it is: a deliberate process of conquest & cultural annihilation.

I was in an old West Virginia mining town last year that was right in the heart of being gentrified. Beautiful, whitewater river, numerous hiking
1/ & biking trails through the mountains in the public lands all around the town, but yet still a reasonable distance from DC & the Eastern megalopolis.

The town was still likely more than 50% heritage population, as could be seen at the grocery store, homes, cars & so forth.
2/
May 5 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
On May 2 the Ukrainians launched an assault in the Black Sea area including:

47 air drones
14 sea drones
11 cruise missiles

Some of the sea drones carried anti-aircraft missiles, it seems at least 1 Russian fighter was shot down

What if it had been the US Navy under attack?
1/ People get very excited about rapid advances in military technology, such as sea drones shooting down airplanes, but the US & Western navies should be very concerned.

The US has the most powerful fleet in the world - but it is based on fighting past wars.
2/
May 2 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Unfortunately, it goes much further than this. While a credentialed Leftist would be upset if harsh words are said about blacks & immigrants, they love nothing more than punching down on poor whites, particularly from rural areas.
1/ If you want to see just vicious contempt, trying listening to a MN liberal talking about poor whites from Alabama, Arkansas or Missouri. It's allowed hatred.

The poor whites are not accidental victims of the Leftists, they are deliberately kicked in the stomach & head
2/