This last week, going out on a limb with Starliner reports, has been stressful AF. I have good sources, but when there's no official confirmation, you *really* want to be right about things. And I try very hard to do so. Anyway, I want to share a bit of what it's like to report uncomfortable truths in the space community. There is a private Discord filled SLS stans who are 'haters.' These are not regular haters, but super haters. Every time I reported SLS delays they would lose their minds. I was wrong. Making shit up. What they don't realize is that I've had access to the Discord for years.

Yes, there’s a rocket out there. SpaceX webcast is firing up so here’s hoping … 🚀 As we get a little later in the morning the “seeing” should improve as relative humidity drops. But the viewing is much worse than Monday.

This week I published a story that looks ahead at what I think are five of the biggest stories in spaceflight for the rest of the 2020s. (link below). In this thread I provide a brief look at each of them.

arstechnica.com/science/2023/0… 1. Commercial space stations. If the 2010s were about finding a way for NASA astronauts to reach the ISS, this decade will be about finding a future destination in LEO. NASA wants to lease time, but will any private stations be ready to go when NASA is ready to buy in 2030?

T-10 minutes until four fine people go to space on a shiny new rocket.

Watch live: BLA5TOFF!

NASA and SpaceX have signed a space act agreement for a commercial mission to boost the Hubble Space Telescope. This will extend the lifetime of the telescope, and preclude emerging concerns about the need for costly end-of-life disposal. NASA will study the potential for commercial servicing of the mission over the next six months. Goal is to see what is feasible. One potential outcome is that @rookisaacman's Polaris Program would undertake this reboosting as part of its private spaceflight program.

NASA's Jim Free thanks NOAA and forecasters at Space Launch Delta-45 for their help forecasting Hurricane Ian's track and impacts. "We took every one of our decisions very seriously," he says of Artemis I and weather. Free says there were two "good weather" windows to roll the SLS rocket back: Early Monday morning and Late Monday night. Free: "We waited about as long as we could and still had a window to get the vehicle back, and safe."

NASA begins a Crew-5 briefing 25 minutes late, with seven participants, and says the briefing must end at the top of the hour, 35 minutes later. NASA's Kathy Lueders says the launch team is still working toward an October 3 launch date for Crew-5, but acknowledges that they have to work through weather considerations at KSC.

NASA says it will make a rollback decision on Artemis I today. While the forecast models did shift significantly west on Ian's track Saturday, that trend has stopped. In some cases models have moved back slightly east. In short, KSC still at risk for significant storm impacts. Another change is that the forecast for Ian's maximum intensity has worsened. Models showing Cat. 4, and @NHC_Atlantic has it at 140 mph on Wednesday morning. This would be strongest September hurricane in the Gulf since Rita in 2005, capable of major, widespread damage.

I've heard from enough NASA people over the last 12 hours to know that Tom Whitmeyer's comments at Friday's news conference are not representative of the agency's attitude toward tropical weather and meteorology. They're taking Ian seriously.

https://twitter.com/JimFree/status/1573463941186977793

The agency has a difficult call to make today regarding the SLS rocket. The forecast is trending slightly westward, and I expect the 11am ET forecast from the NHC to reflect that. However, KSC should still be squarely in the cone of uncertainty when they meet later today.

Working on an Artemis I weather story, and this comment from SLS chief engineer John Blevins really stands out: “And so, if we actually experienced a true hurricane, it would be my recommendation that we consider rolling back. Usually the footprint of those things isn’t as wide." It would be his recommendation that they "consider" rolling back. That's just insane. I'm sorry. It's taken NASA 12 years and untold billions to put this rocket and spacecraft on the pad. And they're going to risk it on order to kind of maybe make another launch attempt by 10/2?

The NASA briefing on the Artemis I mission is starting now. You can follow along live here:

nasa.gov/nasalive Sounds like NASA is pressing ahead toward a launch attempt on Tuesday, September 27, while keeping a close eye on weather. Briefing paused for technical issues with the livestream, however.

Weather continues to be a concern for NASA and Artemis I with the newly formed Tropical Depression Nine. Earliest arrival of Tropical Storm-force winds over Kennedy Space Center is now Monday night or Tuesday morning. A wide variance in outcomes remains, and TD Nine could take quite a bit longer to reach Florida (i.e. not until Wednesday). But the storm appears headed in that general direction, with a lot of the guidance suggesting it reaches at least Category -2 or 3.

NASA continues to troubleshoot a liquid hydrogen leak with the SLS rocket. A similar issue occurred with the first wet dress attempt this spring. There’s still a reasonable chance of a launch today, but this is suboptimal. Not great: NASA's initial attempt to resume flow of liquid hydrogen into the vehicle has not worked. Currently in "stop flow."

Just logged into the Pythom Space Zoom call and it's going pretty well ... A story in three parts.

NASA's update on the modified wet dress rehearsal test is beginning now. Listen in here: nasa.gov/nasalive NASA's Tom Whitmeyer on performing a wet dress test without fueling the upper stage of the SLS rocket: "We’re very comfortable with the path forward. We think it’s a great path forward."

Damn, Pythom Space has some work to do on their safety culture—this video is a masterclass in how not to do rocket science.

vimeo.com/690376951 Pythom Space has edited the video linked above, to deleted the few seconds of footage showing employees running from the expanding exhaust/dust plume.

Three Russian cosmonauts just launched to the International Space Station on a Russian rocket, from Kazakhstan. The color scheme of their space attire as they came aboard the station is rather striking. Here's the color of the flight suits worn by the most recent Soyuz mission to the ISS, which docked in December 2021.

ESA announced this week that Crew-4 will be a shorter mission to the International Space Station, and @AstroSamantha will no longer serve as commander because of the shorter on-orbit increment. I'd like to explain why so this is not misunderstood.

esa.int/Science_Explor… @AstroSamantha 1. This is not a reflection of Samantha, whom just about everyone I've spoken to about says is awesome. And my personal interactions with her have been great as well. This does seem to be purely a scheduling issue.

I’m here at Ellington Field in Houston for the astronaut class announcement at 12:30 ET (17:30 UTC). Sounds like there will be 10 astronaut candidates this time. The astronaut candidates have gathered by the side of the stage. They look young, brilliant and ready to fly! There are six men and four women.

It looks like Elon is on time. He's being introduced now.

Musk says, at liftoff, the Super Heavy booster will provide 2.2 or 2.3 times the thrust of a Saturn V rocket. SpaceX is aiming to complete the first orbital flight in January.

First FAA public hearing (virtual) on SpaceX's plans to launch Starship from South Texas is getting under way. "We do have a very large number of participants on the call." There is a 3-minute limit on oral comments this evening.