1/ $TMDX TransMedics is in deep trouble per online posts claiming a large workforce reduction, as well as LinkedIn data. Retail enthusiasts posting faulty Q4/Q1 flight data on this platform are missing the real story. Meanwhile, $TMDX competitor OrganOx, with a near-identical device at 1/3 the price, appears to have doubled its headcount and is hiring people at a rapid clip, suggesting rapid erosion of TransMedics market share. A thread: 2/Posts on TheLayoff indicate a workforce reduction in late November, well into Q4. A Nov 20 post says 70 staff were eliminated and claims a hiring freeze through Q1. A Nov 28 post says 170 were eliminated. A Jan 15 post says “looks like more to come.” These posts are anonymous and we make no representations as to their accuracy. We think it’s more likely than not that they’re accurate, as 1) the posts have some specific details; 2) the claims are consistent with LinkedIn data. The alleged layoff strikes us as massive and highly material versus total headcount and we do not recall an 8-K from the company.

Source: thelayoff.com/transmedics

1/7 We remain short $TWST Twist Bioscience. Today, we highlight the undisclosed related-party revenue and potential round-tripping that we believe is driving most of its recent incremental “growth.”

We intend to publish a series of research updates and deep-dives to update our Nov 2022 short report, as we think Twist is a late-stage fraud where the backbends are becoming increasingly desperate to keep the story going. Investors who have recently piled in are in for a rude awakening. 2/7 See related-party footbote (attached) from the 10Q filed Friday, which leads us to question how real or sustainable the incremental revenue is, given that it is driven by this undisclosed related party.

The growth is so small as to be meaningless, but the stock was left for dead as of a year ago. The incremental revenue however minor has led investors to fall for a "turnaround' story and the stock has rebounded.

Background: We published a short report on Twist in Nov 2022. The stock fell from $38 to a low of ~$12 in mid-2023. Quarter to quarter revenue was basically flat in 2022, stuck around ~$55-60MM. Sales hit a wall and the stock reflected it.

Starting in Sep 2023, quarterly revenue began to creep up again. The gains have been incremental, on the order of $3MM to $6MM sequentially. However, they were sufficient to propel the stock back to a recent high of $60, given the tailwind from the explosive rally in low quality and highly shorted stocks, that began in Nov 2023.

25/[Full thread cont’d] Struggles at other customers, such as Samsung, Marvell, and Global Foundries, the latter ridiculing the quality of Lasertec’s EUV tool and ceasing new purchases in 2021, calling it “just unacceptable” with a “problematic light source.” Global Foundries blasted the tool as “not as sophisticated or as capable as the classic [DUV] KLA mask inspection tools; mocked their A300 announcement by saying “no question…it sounds sketchy”; and confirmed that other customers are equally “frustrated and disappointed” and are refusing to take shipment. 26/As a sign of Lasertec’s urgent situation, Global Foundries stated that “senior technical people” from Intel and Samsung recently flew to Japan to express their “concerns with the equipment.” Marvell stated it also has no interest in further ACTIS purchases; that ASML “echoed the same problems that we are seeing”; expressed skepticism of the A300; revealed that Lasertec offered them ~75% discounts in a desperate attempt to offload inventory; and that they recently saw high levels of inventory piling up at Lasertec, leading them to question their inventory valuation and accounting.

1/[Full thread] We are short Lasertec Corp (TSE:6920) $6920, one of the largest corporate frauds in Japanese history ($23B market cap) and easily the largest outright fraud in the world by average daily volume. 330 page presentation now live in English and Japanese at :
 
Japan’s Most Actively Traded Stock Is A Colossal Fraud And Ticking Time Bomb, Reminiscent Of Olympus, Toshiba, And Other Infamous Accounting Scandalsscorpioncapital.com 2/Depending on the week, Lasertec’s trading volume is in the top ten globally at $3-4B/day, on the leaderboard with Nvdia, Tesla, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta, making it one of the biggest bubble stocks on earth. Volumes have recently abated but remain ~$2B (3 month avg) and $1.2B in the last week.

Our thoughts on Berkeley Lights $BLI Q3 prelim results yesterday. Red flags abound. We remain short. Tweet thread: 1/9 BLI's underwriters continue to promote a buy the dip opportunity, yet we haven't seen a single insider step up to buy "cheap" shares since our report. Presumably the same underwriters who gifted insiders an early release from lock up at ~$90. Down ~80% since. Caveat emptor.

1 We are short $DNA. Ginkgo Bioworks is a colossal scam, a Frankenstein mash-up of the worst frauds of the last 20 years. At $23B market cap, it is rare to see a related-party scheme on Ginkgo’s scale in the US markets – it is, quite simply, the US version of the “China Hustle.” 2 Ginkgo’s business model is based on a dubious shell game. Most of its foundry revenue, an absurd 72% in 2020, and ~100% of its deferred revenue are derived from related-party “customers.” Investments into these entities by Ginkgo and its investors are round-tripped back.

1/6 We are short Berkeley Lights ($BLI): Fleecing Customers And IPO Bagholders With A $2MM Black Box That's A Clunker, While Insiders and Silicon Valley Bigwigs Race To Dump Stock. Just Another VC Pump At 27X Sales. Target Price: $0. Report now live at scorpioncapital.com. 2/6 Even in an era of fraudulent “black box” IPO’s that reveal scant details and mesmerize investors with fancy jargon and sky-high TAM’s, BLI stands out for the number of nonsensical phrases, newly-invented words, and drivel it uses to describe itself.