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https://twitter.com/SevaUT/status/1581435744794529794nukes have always been the ultimate defensive deterrent (hence “nuclear peace” arguments) But if nukes or nuclear blackmail become an offensive tool of territorial conquest we are now in a world in which:
https://twitter.com/DylanPrimakoff/status/1552073416185974791?s=20&t=KyLAGRNuW7Gr0cqEPfu7vQ
https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1502350142812340224as @adam_e_casey and I argued in early Feb., the increased personalism of Putin’s rule would lead to over-optimism, weak subordinates, and bad intel in case of an invasion. we are seeing all this and we will see more
https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1499061160460668945a week ago the guy that demanded an immediate Batman embargo on russia was roundly mocked. now it's just policy
https://twitter.com/IChotiner/status/1498808486955663360The unasked question: what is the actual existential threat to Russia? How does Ukraine joining NATO and/or EU actually threaten the *existence* of Russia? Do ICBMs stop working when they join? Do the tanks melt away?
https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1496852159455010818?s=20&t=sW1WojZbPSSrrJFMUws72Qa tightening and more aggressive inner circle, weak subordinates (witness the struggle session earlier this week), informational filtering leading to over-optimism and underestimating of costs. This is sadly all looking more likely.
https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1496842614070550530?s=20&t=yVaBkSvHqKDVpFHaxbT7wA
https://twitter.com/TheAtlantic/status/1460315944975278083the "West" is what makes global kleptocracy possible in the first place, or that Western firms regularly sell surveillance tech "to the bad guys". This is, in other words, a co-dependence and not a battle of good vs evil.