Bain AI data center forecast.

2019: 44GW
2024: 67GW (9% CAGR)

2030 Forecast:
Bear - 139 (13% CAGR)
Base - 163GW (16% CAGR)
Bull - 197GW (20% CAGR) 2020: 46GW
Hyperscaler self-build - 7 (15%)
Colocation (hyperscaler) - 7 (15%)
Colocation (non-hyperscaler) - 10 (22%)
Enterprise - 22 (48%)

2030: 163 GW
HSB - 69 (42%; 26% CAGR)
Colo (H) - 39 (24%; 19% CAGR)
Colocation (NH) - 24 (15%; 9% CAGR)
Enterprise - 31 (19%; 3% CAGR)

The typical architecture of an AI data center and comparison to traditional data centers Power infrastructure + cooling techniques

Ignoring some choice verbiage (e.g., DE&I or Climate), the AI Action Plan doc focuses on some ambitious goals related to ensuring America remains an AI leader.

Pillars I, II, III summarized:
i) Unleash AI: roll back EO 14110 regs, back open‑source/open‑weight, fund R&D & compute markets, grow talent.
ii) Build the stack: chips, DCs & power via NEPA/FAST‑41 fast‑tracks, grid upgrades, and new dispatchable geo/nuclear/fusion.
iii) Secure & lead globally: lock down frontier model misuse (bio/cyber), harden DOD/IC compute, police chip/export leaks.

Notable text from each Pillar below... Pillar I: Accelerate AI Innovation

-Support Next-Generation Manufacturing: Invest in developing and scaling foundational and translational manufacturing technologies via DOD, DOC, DOE, NSF, and other Federal agencies using the Small Business Innovation Research program, the Small Business Technology Transfer program, research grants, CHIPS R&D programs, Stevenson-Wydler Technology Innovation Act authorities, Title III of the Defense Production Act, Other Transaction Authority, and other authorities

-Support Next-Generation Manufacturing: Through NSF, DOE, NIST at DOC, and other Federal partners, invest in automated cloud-enabled labs for a range of scientific fields, including engineering, materials science, chemistry, biology, and neuroscience, built by, as appropriate, the private sector, Federal agencies, and research institutions in coordination and collaboration with DOE National Laboratories.

-Build World-Class Scientific Datasets: Direct the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) Machine Learning and AI Subcommittee to make recommendations on minimum data quality standards for the use of biological, materials science, chemical, physical, and other scientific data modalities in AI model training.

(1/9) New @BerkeleyLab @ENERGY shows dramatic changes in U.S. data center energy use. In 2014-2016, consumption was stable at ~60 TWh/year. But by 2023, it reached 176 TWh - over 4% of total U.S. electricity use (+up to 6-12% by 2028). The culprit? The rise of AI computing. (2/9) Looking ahead to 2028, data centers could consume between 325-580 TWh annually - up to 12% of projected U.S. electricity use. This massive growth is primarily driven by AI workloads and GPU-accelerated computing.

Incredible presentation. My favorite slides below. 🧵

Manufactured technologies (e.g., solar and wind) enjoy cost learning curves; (fossil) commodities don’t... which also means they grow faster. Even neutral actors modeled in linear terms. But change has been exponential.

Electricity is the largest supplier of useful* energy.

Useful energy is the total energy left after all processing and conversion losses.

I wish everyone that spouted off on the ICE vs. EV debate had to simply acknowledge first that most of the energy you put into a gasoline car is wasted and EVs are far more efficient at converting energy to motion. This is a simple, objective fact. While we're at it, this is also true for all combustion of fossil fuels. Most of the energy burned becomes waste heat! I wish more people knew that when arguing this stuff. Imagine on a first principles basis arguing that the optimal state is one that wastes 2/3 of the output.

This will be Decarbonization’s equivalent version of Mary Meeker’s landmark Internet Trends report. Incredible resource from one of the best minds on the topic. Check it out ⬇️

https://twitter.com/NatBullard/status/1624767603725029376

Some of the charts/visuals/points that stood out most to me.

The US uses 40% of its corn crop to meet 10% of its motor gasoline demand.

Two great macro pods that I'd highly recommend

1) @LeitnerJim on @breaking_fever on the relationship between levels of democracy and market returns.

2) @BobEUnlimited on @joincolossus @InvestLikeBest masterclass on how to think about macro/economic cycles.

Incredible orators. Financial markets, democracy, and power with Jim Leitner open.spotify.com/episode/2hfy3c…

Compiling some resources, charts, and company quotes on the impact the IRA is having on capital deployment, corporate strategy, and reshoring industries critical to our clean energy future. Let's visit all the announcements and commentary after 3Q/422 earnings season 🧵 First off, from a tends perspective, there were 2,500+ mentions in 3Q22 and 1800+ mentions of the Inflation Reduction Act for companies that reported in 3Q22 and 4Q22. Snapshot of the companies that mentioned it most - mix of clean energy, utilities, and auto companies.

Have you ever been curious about how public asset managers are trying to figure out implementing Net Zero across portfolios? Bunch of approaches all with their own nuances and pros/cons. GFANZ portfolio alignment released updated guidance - 140 pages. Here are some highlights.🧵 4 categories of alignment metrics: In increasing complexity, they are 1) binary, 2) maturity scale alignment, 3) benchmark divergence, & 4) implied temperature rise (ITR)

Metrics should be simple, transparent, science-based, broadly applicable, aggregable, and incentive optimal

I have been harping on Scope 3 a lot, but it's important and recent comments and research further push the issue(s) into the spotlight.

1) Unilever CEO says 'no idea' how they will meet Net Zero b/c of Scope 3
2) AlixPartners finds most food & bev. cos behind schedule on targets "[CEO] said it would require significant changes in consumer behavior & action from governments, including the adoption of much higher use of renewable energy worldwide. Unilever focuses on advocacy to help promote the changes needed as part of overall carbon reduction strategy"

From @IEA Global EV Outlook: [Global] "Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) doubled in 2021 from the previous year to a new record of 6.6 million. Back in 2012, just 120 000 electric cars were sold worldwide. In 2021, more than that many are sold each week"

Driven by China per below

https://twitter.com/IEA/status/1531262914618871811

More from executive summary: "The simultaneous electrification of road transport and the deployment of decentralised variable renewables such as rooftop solar will make power grid distribution more complex to manage."

Some interesting facts/charts from the wonderful report by @energy_said @rob_by_robwest this AM:

Energy security: the return of long-term contracts?
thundersaidenergy.com/2022/04/14/ene… Commodity prices=inelastic "oil as an example, a price elasticity of -7% means that a doubling of oil prices is statistically associated with a 7% reduction in demand. Or stating it the other way around, a 1% loss of supply should increase prices by 15% (1 ÷ 7%) (15x multiplier)"

Interesting data on consumers/sustainability from IBM and National Retail Federation that I'm seeing for the first time. Data from 2020 on 18,980 consumers in 28 countries.

ibm.com/downloads/cas/….

50% of consumers rank "brands that offer 'clean' products" as very important Of that subgroup of consumers that rank clean products as very important, ~77% of consumers are willing to pay a premium

I think WG3 is interesting b/c of the breakdown of sources of emissions by sector and mitigation options by sector.

Some quotes/facts/charts that were worth looking at from my view 🧵 GHG emissions rose across all sectors and subsectors, and most rapidly in transport and industry. 2019 splits:
-34% Energy
-24% Industry (34% w/ indirect)
-22% from Agriculture, Forestry and other Land Use (AFOLU)
-15% from Transport and
-6% Buildings (17% w/ indirect)

Got through the summary report of @McKinsey's Net Zero economy report.

Very well done. Read enough of these and you eventually get the same points (sectors, themes, everyone do their part, etc.) so will focus on some of the underappreciated/new points.

mckinsey.com/business-funct… Cumulative spending on physical assets for Net Zero between 2021 and 2050 would be about ~$275 trillion. Means it will rise from ~$5.7 trillion today to an annual average of $9.2 trillion through 2050, an increase of $3.5 trillion.

Substantially higher than other estimates.

Some kind people pointed out typos so re-sharing to ensure the information shared reflects the article appropriately

Article's claim: Can get 70x the distance driven from one acre of solar vs. one acre of corn. Math here -freeingenergy.com/math/car-ev-dr…

Tried duplicating w/ recent data

https://twitter.com/JohnSmillie42/status/1484382116972568576

1. Corn -> ethanol -> gasoline

USDA - 1 bushel of corn = 2.5 gallons of ethanol fsa.usda.gov/Internet/FSA_F…

174.6 bushels per acre - 2021 nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/2021/…

1 gallon ethanol = .66 gallon gasoline
ers.usda.gov/data-products/…

2.5*175*.66 = ~290 gallons of gas per acre of corn

1/n
Fantastic post by @MLiebreich on Peak Emissions and the "Renewable Energy Singularity". He's always great at being an optimist and presenting research/predictions from a lens of growth & progress grounded in reality, which is refreshing compared to most writing on climate 2/n
-IPCC calls for 20% cut by 2030 to keep temperature rises <2C (45% for 1.5C); these are out of reach
-Over past decade, global emissions have risen by 15%
-From '13-'16: emissions flat for the first time ever outside recessions
- Since '17, emissions growing by ~1.2% per year