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Shaun Ratcliff Profile picture
Shaun Ratcliff
@ShaunRatcliff
Pollster. Political scientist. Sometimes university lecturer. @Accent_Research. @Sydney_Uni.
Feb 17 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Yesterday, the News Ltd papers published the first in a series of RedBridge / @Accent_Research key seats tracking polls

This showed a 3% two-party swing towards the Coalition in 20 key battleground seats Image These polls are designed to provide voters with information normally reserved for major party campaigns, giving readers a window into what the campaigns see that others do not

Here is the estimated primary and 2pp vote intention in these key seats Image
Sep 9, 2024 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Eight months out from the next federal election, and we are firmly in minority government territory

The latest @Accent_Research | RedBridge MRP estimates Labor is on track to win 69 seats and the Coalition 68 if an election were held now

Read on for details on the results Predicted winners for each electoral division. Gains are shaded lighter to highlight where seats are changing hands, and those that are too close to call are shaded grey. These results are estimates from a model-based approach called Multilevel Regression with Post-stratification (MRP), fit to data from a survey of 5,976 Australian voters conducted between 10 July and 27 August, 2024.
May 27, 2024 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
Twelve months from the next election a minority federal government is a live possibility

According to work by @Accent_Research and the RedBridge Group, a hung parliament and a Labor majority are almost equally likely outcome. Image Covered in the AFR this morning, this research found there is essentially zero probability at this stage the Liberal-National Coalition will win more seats than Labor

afr.com/politics/feder…
Image
Jan 28, 2024 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
This article by John Burns-Murdoch is interesting. It shows that in a number of affluent democracies, young women (aged 18-29) have become increasingly left-leaning compared to young men.

It got me (and others) wondering if something similar was happening in Australia (a thread) Looking first at self-reported ideology, we can see that young women in Australia have become more liberal (or progressive) than young men since the mid-1990s. (Cont.) Self reported ideology (on a left-right scale) of voters aged 18-29, by gender. The curve shows the net progressive share. This is those of each gender saying they had a left ideology minus those with a right ideology. Those with a centrist position or who did not answer the question were excluded. Data are from the Australian Election Study (AES), 1996-2022.
Oct 16, 2023 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
Much has been written about why No won the Voice referendum but a lot of this is opinion

to provide some data Octopus Group & Accent Research ran a survey on how/why Australians voted incl their attitudes towards racial discrimination (pictured below)

this is what we found 🧵 Image Support for the Voice was highest among Greens and Labor voters, and lowest with Coalition voters. It was higher in inner metropolitan electorates, and lowest in rural and provincial areas Image
Jun 8, 2022 • 25 tweets • 7 min read
The 2022 election result was stunning, and while it is true that there was a realignment at the electorate level, claims that the Coalition represents poorer voters and Labor 'elites' is massively exaggerated

🧵 Economically advantaged voters --- those with higher incomes and who own their own homes --- are still more likely to support the Coalition. Those with lower incomes are more likely to vote for Labor, minor parties and independents 

theaustralian.com.au/commentary/wea…