1/10
Does 🇨🇳China's recent public remarks about its opposition to use nuclear weapon mean a real limit to China-Russia "no-limits" friendship?

My short answer is: NOT AT ALL!

Why?

It is rather a Chinese game to score "cheap" points among the West

Let's me explain 2/10

it is worth focusing on
🔸the TIMING of Chinese remarks about nukes 🔸LANGUAGE/narrative China is using (see Chinese readouts!)
🔸and ARGUMENTS

1/12

The 🇨🇳 20th CCP Congress (二十大) is approaching
Two days left❗️

Where is China and CCP after 10 years of XJP?

What has changed, what is new?

What are main trends/processes/characteristics?

And what are the resons behind?

My few thoughts 🧶 2/12

🔷CONTROL &
🔷SECURITISATION of every aspect of life in 🇨🇳

🛠️Tools
🔸digital authoritarianism, surveillance
🔸tightening the grip on society
🔸deluge of security related laws & regulations

🎯Targets
🔸ethic & religious groups
🔸regions (香港)
🔸business
🔸Youth
etc.

1/10
Few thoughts about 🇨🇳Xi-🇷🇺Putin meeting

(based on Chinese & Russian readouts)

General observation:
🔸🇷🇺Putin was rather emotional, talkative & straightforward (do read the readout!)
🔸🇨🇳Xi was restained & reticent

This tells us who is in a worse (kowtow?) position... 2/10
Here we go

1⃣ 🇨🇳🇷🇺friendship is "solid as a mountain"

Putin said that:

the world is changing, but there is only one thing that remains unchanged: China-Russia friendship

1/9

Although the 🇪🇺EU-🇨🇳China summit ended up with no substantial deliverables, EU has made a very good job.

1⃣ EU focused on 🇷🇺Russia's agression of 🇺🇦Ukraine, putting 🇨🇳 in a very awkward postion, using Chinese own "weapon" (to some extent)

Let's have a look what I mean
👇 2/9

🔸🇪🇺unambiguous language about the war

❗️war-time, not-bussines-as-usual moment
❗️🇷🇺’s military aggression
❗️unjustified & UNPROVOKED INVASION of a SOVEREIGN ountry
❗️targeting civilian population
❗️BLOODSHED in Ukraine
❗️losses of civilian lives
❗️humanitarian disaster

1/9
Any noticeable change in 🇨🇳China's official narrative about 🇷🇺Russia's agression of 🇺🇦Ukraine:

🔸since Xi-Biden video call (18 March)
&
🔸just before the 🇪🇺EU-🇨🇳China summit (1 April)?

Nope❗️

But there are several expressions worth focusing on 2/9

1⃣ less Ukraine/war-related 🇨🇳remarks.

🔸 int'l community should focus not only on Ukraine ; there are other crisis, e.g. in Afghanistan (blaming the West?🇺🇸US?)

国际社会不能因关注乌克兰问题而忽视阿富汗问题 (...) 帮助阿人民渡过难关 [to help 🇦🇫 ppl]

1/7

Is change of 🇨🇳China's stance on 🇷🇺Russia's invasion of🇺🇦Ukraine likely?

YES... (with big BUT❗)

China is under unprecedented global pressure (US intelligence leaks, regardless whether true or not, is a perfect example of immense 压力) due to its explicit pro-🇷🇺narrative 2/7

Horror of civilians, including children, that are shelling and killing, pictures of devastated🇺🇦Ukrainian cities put China in an extremely awkward position.

It is almost impossible to pretend that this does not exist. Not in today's world, despite firewalls and censorship.

1/8
In 🇨🇳 narrative about 🇺🇦&🇷🇺, one may easily find Russia-led notions/phrases.

China is extensively using Russia's slogans in its official remarks and readouts.

Especially interesting is this expression:

🔸安全不可分割原则
principle of the INDIVISIBILITY of SECURITY 2/8

1⃣ First of all, it seems that this is a rather new phrase/expression in 🇨🇳Chinese political playbook (correct me if I am wrong...)

I've checked
- CNKI database. Zero!
- Baidu: plenty of "安全不可分割原则" but... since 2022 & with reference to🇷🇺/Putin

1/10

When it comes to 🇨🇳China's narrative about 🇷🇺Russian invasion of 🇺🇦Ukraine, it is worth thoroughly analysing what China is talking about:

1) 🇺🇦Ukraine
2) 🇷🇺Russia
3) West (🇺🇸USA, 🇪🇺Europe, NATO)

👇 2/10

In a nutshell:

1) 🇺🇦:not fully independent country, Russia's sphere of influence

2)🇷🇺: a sovereign country, with legitimate security concerns

3) 🇺🇸🇪🇺: responsible for the current situation; is trying to drag 🇺🇦 to the Wester. This violates🇷🇺sphere of influence

1/6
What is 🇨🇳's official narrative abt🇷🇺's invasion of 🇺🇦?

🔸🇷🇺Invasion [俄罗斯入侵乌克兰]?
🔸War [战争]?

Nope!

Is there any noticeable change in the course of the days, bearing in mind that 🇷🇺Russia's targets of shelling & bombing are civilians?

IMHO, none!

Few phases👇 2/6

🔷25 Feb,🇨🇳Xi-🇷🇺Putin📞

🔸乌克兰问题
🇺🇦Ukraine issue

🔸乌克兰局势
🇺🇦Ukraine situation

🔸乌克兰东部地区局势急剧变化
Sudden changes of situation in eastern 🇺🇦Ukraine

🔸俄罗斯在乌东部地区采取特别军事行动
🇷🇺Russia launches special military operation in eastern 🇺🇦Ukraine

1/10

There are a lot of misunderstandings or misinterpretations when it comes to 🇨🇳China's remarks about sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of 🇺🇦Ukraine.

Let's see what 🇨🇳China exactly says about it (based on Chinese readouts in Chinese) 2/10

IMHO:
🔸🇨🇳China purposely uses very vague language to make us misinterpret its remarks about 🇺🇦Ukraine and fall into 🇨🇳 traps

🔸to put it bluntly: 🇨🇳China refrains from explicit support for 🇺🇦Ukraine when it comes to territorial integrity, sovereing. & indepen.

Let’s go:

1/9
During ongoing 🇹🇼Taiwan delegations' visits to 🇨🇿🇸🇰🇱🇹 & hints about further destinations such as🇪🇺 and 🇵🇱 I would like to recall my paper published by @9DashLine few weeks ago about why CEE may play, or already plays, a vanguard role in strengthening ties with 🇹🇼

Thread 🧵👇 2/9
📌As former members of the socialist block under Soviet Union influence, the CEE countries know from experience what it is like to be living under the shadow of coercion from a big, influential, and authoritarian neighbour.

1/7
🇵🇱minister of foreing affairs @RauZbigniew about Poland's stance on 🇪🇺🇨🇳#CAI

https://twitter.com/PISM_Poland/status/1349856962851319811

2/7
👉We should have first discussed 🇪🇺 political goals toward 🇨🇳, thereby searching for a democratic consensus on this issue. On this basis, we could have renewed the EC’s mandate to negotiate #CAI

1/4
The fact that 🇨🇳China is preparing 17+1 online summit confirms my thesis about the role of the format in 🇨🇳China's foreign policy presented in the @NBRnews report edited by @RollandNadege

nbr.org/publication/an…
👇 2/4
👉🇨🇳 portrays the 17+1 formula as a useful political tool for projecting power (including through agenda-setting), promoting its values and norms, and safeguarding its core interests.

scmp.com/news/china/dip…

1/10
Why concluding promptly (👉this year) the 🇪🇺-🇨🇳 Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (#CAI) is not a good idea

Two main arguments
1)📍 it goes against the latest EU's sharpen China policy 👉 "Strategic Outlook", outcomes of the latest EU-China summits, etc. 2/10
2)📍& it gives China a win when it comes to the PRC's goal of preventing/undermining close transatlantic copperation on China (as the #CAI negotiations might be finalised before Biden's inauguration)