🧵 THREAD 🧵

The economist Robert Solow passed away a couple of weeks ago. So for my column this week I decided to write about... unconditional convergence. The idea that poor countries grow faster than rich ones. Does it happen in the real world?

😬

ft.com/content/e7e956… 2/ For centuries, the answer was NO. Poorer countries do NOT tend to catch up with richer ones. ☹️

BUT a couple of papers published in 2021 noted that the story changed. Starting around the 1990s/2000s there WAS a trend towards unconditional convergence... 😁

My special report on the new order of trade argues that trade policy is decreasingly driven by the simple goal of boosting trade/growth and encouraging efficiency. Now other objectives are becoming more important. (1/n)

economist.com/special-report… That is partly because of gridlock at the WTO.

It is also because of a growing American perception that greater economic integration with China and US security are not complementary.

economist.com/special-report…

My piece this week for @TheEconomist describes how the British welfare state is changing...

A temporary flirtation with insurance for people losing their jobs is now over.

economist.com/britain/2021/1… Would highly recommend this from the @resfoundation by @MikeBrewerEcon @KarlHandscomb and @Krishansays

resolutionfoundation.org/publications/i…

If you want some background reading on the G7 corporation tax announcement, do read my deep-dive here:

economist.com/finance-and-ec… This week I wrote about what poorer countries want from the talks:

economist.com/finance-and-ec…

Hello! I wrote a thing about that tiny topic that is the future of world trade...

featuring @kevinhorourke, @kdziczek, @jacob___parker, Mike Jette of @GEP_Worldwide, Pierre Sauvé of @WorldBank, Bernard Hoekman of @EuropeanUni and @BaldwinRE

economist.com/briefing/2020/… At one point due to an internal miscommunication I thought this chart might not make it in. Due to the [REDACTED] I spent on stata constructing it I nearly cried. But then it made it in and I was happy.

A thread of all the things that Trump/Lighthizer advertised as being part of the phase 1 deal, based on the October 11th meeting with Liu He...

(It isn't just ag purchases) 1. Intellectual property

2. financial services

Mnuchin: "opening up their markets to our financial services firms"

eg credit companies, banks and lending institutions.

Trump: "Financial services, I think, will be covered pretty much in its entirety."

White House exec order is out on autos imports threatening national security. First official confirmation that the report finds that imports DO threaten national security. I think the interesting bit in the order is the focus on AMERICAN-OWNED companies. Imports have apparently given FOREIGN-OWNED producers a cost advantage over AMERICAN-OWNED ones, which has hampered investment in the latter group.

Ehem. I have left twitter because I find it makes me unhappy and destroys my ability to concentrate. But I'm back (briefly) to promote a piece I wrote this week on women and econ. A year ago, I wrote this, which explores the problem of economics and women
economist.com/christmas-spec… Economists [think they] are special. They have a "sophisticated" way of thinking about the world, and they require REALLY good evidence before they overturn their priors. One common prior is that outcomes are the result of people making free choices.