As we read these polls, I thought it might bring some perspective to talk about what the numbers mean. First, well known candidates like both Biden and Trump have largely fixed images. People either like them or dislike them to a degree. Pollsters measure it by favorable and very favorable and Unfavorable and very unfavorable. I like to think that the very unfav, and the very fav are gone, decided. The unfav and very unfav are potentially movable, but hard to move. In this election there are two monster issues, overwhelming all others one for each

Note to my friends and others in the Press: After processing the shock of Howard Fineman's death, I started thinking. I had recently been impressed by Howard's outspoken opposition to Trump and MAGA on this platform. I jokingly reached out to him to congratulate him on his honesty and frankness and welcome him to the cause. Not knowing that he was terminally ill. Howard responded that he was Fineman "Unplugged" or "Unchained" (I can't remember which one). This is a gentle nudge to reporters out there to approach each story you write now like

Folks, your fellow Americans did not get these crazy ideas, about Qanon, about a cabal of pedophiles drinking children's blood, about Trump being godly, and the subject of a weaponization of law enforcement, that Russia our enemy is really our friend, that our future lies with ending American Democracy and becoming something like Russia, and Hungary and China. That abandoning our allies in Europe and the Pacific, and instead standing alone against China and Russia. No those crazy ideas did not come about by accident. Americans are being bombarded

Every so often in a campaign events give you permission to reeducate the voting public, and they are attentive to it. This is such a time. Given Trump's conviction now is perfect time to go over his long and sordid career of crime and near crime, of bankruptcy of cheating his banks and stock holders and bond holders, of stiffing contractors, of cheating on his taxes, of defrauding Banks and insurance companies, of his legal cases, fraud in Trump University, Fraud in his Charity, adjudicated of sexual assault and of defaming the woman he assaulted

I'm seeing a lot of calls for people to "do something" about Alito, Thomas, and the rogue court. Folks, there is not much to do other than to call the court corrupt and tell the public to refuse to follow their decisions. That will lead to further de legitimization of our key institutions. I know D's are reluctant to do that, but we may have to. Hearings would require either use of inherent contempt and arrest by Senate, or the DOJ to indict a sitting justice who refused to attend. I just don't think that is a solution. I heard Sheldon

There are many mistakes made by D Party in dealing with MAGA, but here is a central one. They approach each election cycle by doing a triage of winnable and non winnable states, they invest no money in the latter. This is on its face a good tactic, it is a bad strategy however. It means we never expand the playing field. We need to have a separate long term strategy on how to move lean R states to marginal, and marginal states to lean D states. In addition, while it is a waste of money tactically, investing and running campaigns in Heavily R states

What is the “Big Picture” emerging from NY Hush money trial? IMO, it reminded me of how Trump cheats at everything. Remember, he cheated by willfully accepting and encouraging help and support from Russia, our country’s enemy. They hacked the DNC, and used Wiki leaks to spread smears, they had bots and trolls that spread disinformation, Trump’s campaign manager had close ties with Russians, and he shared polling with Russian spy, not to mention Cambridge Anyleticia the targeting arm. The Hush money is the second and less egregious cheating in 2016

Note to Team Biden: this is what you are in for the rest of the way, a concerted unethical campaign where the other side uses all avenues to smear you. My advice, let everyone know that this is a fight to the finish, a knife fight in a back alley, and the time for playing nice is long past. Each cabinet secretary needs to be paid a visit, Starting with Garland and told to batten down the hatches, and go to battle stations. Yesterday the R’s ruthlessly abducted a DOJ function and used it to unethically make a gratuitous attack on The President. It

I've been tough on Merrick Garland, and DOJ, but let me be a devil's advocate for once and lay out what could be happening (not saying it is but what could be) 1) The apparent slowness in interviewing Trump associates stems from concerns that they will use executive Privilege to litigate the issue, and Garland wanted the issue litigated by Congress as the party not the executive branch. Makes for a stronger case, two branches of Government saying waive EX Privilege with opposing party being a non government former President, asking the 3rd branch for

40 or 50 years ago, a transition took place in political messaging. Television become the new technology that changed political messaging. Before TV, name recognition, billboards, endorsements, political party support was key, TV changed all that. I made a good living being in the second wave of Media consultants who dominated political strategy for decades of the 80's through early 2000's. But the rise of the internet, and especially broad band, and social media changed all that. Now TV only plays a less important role, while social media (less

Start with the premise that Trump is good at one thing: committing crimes and avoiding being prosecuted for it. Now imagine he wanted to win at all costs, stay in power regardless of law and ethics. He would set a two part strategy, 1) Try and cheat to win at ballot box. That took several avenues, encourage your voters to vote in person, condition them not to fear the virus, knowing D's would be afraid of the virus and be fearful of voting in person. He would try to stop vote by mail, with legislation, and by enlisting DeJoy to slow the mail. 2) as

I just finished "I Alone can Fix it" a couple of observations: 1) It is a great read, well written and compelling, if you haven't read it you should. 2) many around Trump were more concerned with telling a story that observed them from responsibility than in really telling all, 3) Everyone cast the blame on Trump for incompetence and bizarre behavior, but were careful not to reveal criminality, 4) you would think that the events on Jan. 6th were totally a Trump/Giuliani shit show (this obscures the financing and planning and of course any contact with

Note on Sidney Powell filing tonight: I have always felt that the focus on the insurrection was obscuring a broader conspiracy. Trump planned to cheat to win, first by taking Russian disinformation, both from Ukraine, and then Giuliani smearing Biden, then he planned to limit voting, curtail mail in voting knowing D voters more virus fearful, and downplaying the virus then encouraging his voters to vote unperson. All the while filling law suits to limit voting before and after the election. All the while plotting to claim fraud if he lost so as to

I'm no immigration law expert, but here is my understanding of the problem. Asylum law allows those who present at border a right to hearing. Most of those presenting at border don't and won't qualify for asylum but they must be housed or released prior to hearing. Problem is there are not enough courts, judges, lawyers to process the cases in an expeditious manner. Here are my solutions, (and I welcome any comment or criticism from those more informed). I would try to rent some land on the Mexican side of border, and build an embassy off shoot to

I know the sedition statute is narrow, and that court cases have made prosecution problematic, but that said I think we are all looking at the trees in the forest regarding Jan 6th and not the forest itself. My theory is that the entire Trump effort has been seditious starting in 2016 when there is ample evidence that he accepted and welcomed Russian help, and much evidence that he conspired with Putin. His inexplicable actions and subservience to Putin through out his administration. The active participation in the 2020 Russian intel op by

As a former Political consultant, I feel people are missing the big picture by focusing only on the insurrection event at the capital. Here is what I think happened, and why I think this is a far larger conspiracy at sedition that should be investigated and legally dealt with. I think Trump set up a dual campaign strategy, First, try and win it in the traditional way, but with the wrinkle that he enlisted DeJoy to try to slow down the mail in vote. He did this knowing that D's would because of covid be more inclined to vote by mail. Then in order to

I'm seeing a lot of debate about who gets the credit for this win, minority voters, or swing and Republican never Trumpers. For months I've been saying that D's can't win with just one group, we cannot win most races is swing states by merely increasing turnout. That said, we could not have won this race without the support of African American voters, LGBQ voters, asians, native Americans Latinos and others in our base. Their contribution was more than instrumental it was fundamental. They are the rock of our party. Job one going forward, is to

I have been having a twitter debate this morning with an old friend who I respect greatly @repckelly, I thought it important to set out my position in more detail. It is an important debate if and only if democracy survives this period, which is still in doubt, First, there should be no political prosecutions, no false charges, no Andy McCabe cases, no Durham investigations. That said, I feel that what has transpired in the last 5 years has been an anomaly in American Democracy which we cannot turn a blind eye to. If we simple turn

Folks, think with me for a moment. Goal #1 is to defeat Trump, that means resources are deployed to those states with the best chance to win 270 electoral votes. It requires discipline. But goal #2 is to defeat not just Trump but Trumpism, so that we do not have to go through this again, in 2024 or at anytime in the future. Drive a stake in the heart of the evil, neo nazi, racist, white supremist, Qanon, nut case fringe that has captured the Republican Party. The smartest R's understand, @ProjectLincoln @RVAT2020 the military leaders, the foreign

We are about to see a massive attack on Joe Biden, from paid advertising, from hidden digital, paid ads and troll bots. There are many theories on how one handles these attacks, and disputes about what is correct strategy. At the root of the dispute, If one allows an attack to go unchallenged, it runs the risk of being believed as true, but if one tries to answer and dispute the attack, one risks "losing the definition", (most political strategists believe like military strategy, that if one can choose the battle field, one has a better chance to win

I've worked with a lot of Politicians over the years, before becoming a media consultant, I managed campaigns. While the US government is far bigger and more complicated than any campaign, I think I have some insight into management style that is creating problems for Trump and his administration. 1) As a manager or Chief of staff or cabinet secretary you only have as much authority as the candidate or President gives you. Without the authority to act you can't do anything, it slows you down, and can grind a campaign or administration to a halt.