@hannahddennis and I have a new @CNASdc report out today examining whether the DoD is investing enough in precision guided munitions (PGMs) & posture to deter China & Russia. This is a good news bad news story 1/
cnas.org/publications/r… The good: the services recently started buying more long-range PGMs, which would be needed in a war against China or Russia 2/

1 A no-fly zone over Ukraine is a bad idea that is highly escalatory and not likely to significantly help the Ukrainians. A 🧵 2 No-fly zones gained popularity after the Cold War when U.S.-led coalitions patrolled the skies above Iraq & the Balkans to stop ethnic killing. Vs. weaker adversaries than 🇷🇺, these were still demanding operations that required many American aircraft to enforce them for years.

If you don’t have the time to read the @RANDCorporation history of the Air War vs. ISIS, we’ve made a cliff notes version with many graphics 1/7
rand.org/pubs/research_… The ISIS "caliphate" would not have been destroyed without airpower.

Airpower provided critical intelligence and firepower and “put steel in the backs” of our Iraqi and Syrian partners 2/7

1/6 The US just announced that it is planning to remove 12k troops from Germany. Here are my initial thoughts <thread> wsj.com/articles/penta… 2/6 Germany is what I call an enduring partner—a nation that hosts US bases b/c of shared interests—& provides the most dependable peacetime & contingency basing access. From an access standpoint this is not a good move. rand.org/pubs/research_…

Long thread on wargaming:

This is an important piece written by @edmcgrady, one of the most thoughtful & experienced wargamers, in @WarOnTheRocks that anyone interested in wargaming should read
warontherocks.com/2019/11/gettin… Ed gets a lot of things right: that wargames are widely misunderstood; that they have limitations; they are “unrepeatable, chaotic, vague, & messy events” & do not provide precise quantitative answers