Right now:

VW stake in Porsche = 45 billion euros.
VW stake in Traton = 14 billion euros.
Total: 59 billion euros

VW market cap: 46 billion euros

VW's ownership of Audi, VW cars, Skoda, Seat, Cupra Lamborghini, Bentley and Ducati: free

(We're long $VWAPY) Lamborghini ALONE has to be worth around 15 billion euros. That's around 30 euros/share = $3 per $VWAPY ADR. And they could probably sell it for that price first thing Monday morning, lol.

I've been seriously involved in markets for nearly 30 years and I've never before seen this environment where both fundamentals AND bearish technical indicators were so meaningless relative to what stocks are doing.

I've seen many bubbles, but the technicals CONFIRMED them! In my experience, when markets were "staying irrational" the technicals told me they would CONTINUE to stay irrational so don't get too bearish, but not now.

The best daily markets columnist is @johnauthers and today's work is terrific, with plenty for both greedy bulls AND cautious bears:
Left unsaid though is that this market may be scaring the sh*t out of a Fed that doesn't want (& won't allow!) another 1999bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… Yes, I know that since the '90s the Fed only wanted HIGHER markets but this week even the doves there seemed hawkish. I think they're genuinely scared of throwing fuel on a tech-bubble fire and looking like idiots TWICE in their careers (after throwing fuel on the inflation fire)

I just sold all our $GM in the $36s. We had a modest profit on the position, but that's irrelevant.
Even though access to $TSLA chargers benefits $GM greatly (a reason to buy GM rather than Tesla) I won't own a company with a CEO who'd do business with that criminal.
cc: @mtbarra A lot of people seem to be missing an important point here:

“Moral issues” aside, I don’t TRUST a CEO who would do business with that criminal!

1) With 84% of S&P 500 companies having reported as of February 15th, Q4 GAAP earnings came in at just $38.38/share, which annualizes to $153.52.

A 16x multiple on that would put the S&P at just 2456.
TTM GAAP = $171.52. 16x that = 2744. 2) If you prefer "operating earnings," Q4 is coming in at $49.73 = $198.92 annualized. (TTM operating = $196.31.)

A 15x multiple on $198.92 (reasonable for "operating" when you can get a guaranteed 5% on 6-month T-bills) puts the S&P @ 2983. 16x puts it @ 3182. It's now @ 4079.

1) $TSLA-related email, from a friend:

"A couple I know... bought a Tesla in 2013 and in email after email I couldn't stop hearing about how they raved about the car and the stock...The battery died in 2019 and was replaced..."
(continued) 2) "Now, the replacement battery is dead and Tesla wants $15k to replace it again. The car went just over 50k miles the first time, and less the second time...They now think Tesla's quality and business practices are a joke..."
(continued)

1) Last Wednesday at 5:59PM I had a brief (if you blinked you missed it!) slot on Fox Business to talk about EV tax credits being an egregious waste of money.

This was NOT $TSLA-specific, and in fact I'm long more $GM & VW combined than I'm short Tesla and GM would benefit most. 2) Here's my point-by-point argument, stated simply & concisely:

a) There are around 1.4 billion cars & light trucks in the world.

b) All 1.4 billion cars & light trucks combined contribute only around 12% of man-made CO2.

(continued)

1) Berkshire reported this morning. Want to see something funny?

Its OPERATING CASH FLOW for the first 9 months of 2021 is almost EXACTLY equal to $TSLA's automotive REVENUE for the same period. 2) And oh, Berkshire had $204 billion of total revenue vs. just $36 billion for Tesla, while $TSLA's market cap = 2x Berkshire's.

Assuming the Apple hiree is CJ Moore, I can understand why Cook would hire him: he's honest, and wasn't afraid of speaking truth to Musk: arstechnica.com/cars/2021/05/t… He hasn't changed his LinkedIn yet, but I bet this is the guy: linkedin.com/in/cj-moore-56…

There's this rapper tonight at Summerstage named Kenny Beats. Every 10th word out of mouth is "the N word."

Can someone please explain to me why this isn't a terrible societal double-standard? By the way, of the other 9 words out of every 10, "b*tches* and "p*ssy" seem to be pretty popular for this guy too, lol.

The funny thing is, between the raps he sounds like a nice, articulate, funny, likeable guy!

1)Ways & means published its proposed BEV tax credit. I *doubt* this is approved anywhere CLOSE if the $3.5 trillion is slashed, but it proposes:
$7500 per car +$4500 if built in a U.S. *union* factory + $500 if >50% content + the batteries are U.S.
p.282: waysandmeans.house.gov/sites/democrat… 2) Basically, this puts non-union $TSLA (or anyone else) at a $4500/car disadvantage to any UAW factory.
There's also a $55,000 price cap for sedans, $69,000 for SUVs and $74,000 for pick-up trucks, and a JOKE of a household income limit of $800,000 (or $400,000 individual).

1) Yesterday Musk Tweeted that a stock Plaid ran 7:30 @ the Nürburgring. I (& others) immediately found photos from Motor Authority of a red car Tesla was testing there that wasn't AT ALL "stock" as it had a normal steering wheel, bigger brakes & possibly a stripped out interior. 2) Today Tesla released this video of a seemingly different red car with what it claims to be an official lap of 7:35 (not the 7:30 claimed by Musk):

1) Here's a back-of-the-envelope thread on how I believe $TSLA's warranty under-provisioning + fraud (calling warranty repairs "goodwill" repairs and burying them in "Services and other") may have boosted Tesla's Q2 earnings & automotive gross margin by over $300M... 2) For most of its cars Tesla provides a 4-year standard warranty + an 8-year/100,000-mile full powertrain warranty. (For the S&X the powertrain warranty is unlimited.)

1) I've been thinking about Biden's proposed $100B in EV tax credits relative to $TSLA. TL;DR version: even if it were passed with that much money (and it likely won't be), in the best possible scenario it would only be worth a ONE-TIME $12.40/share to Tesla. Read on... 2) Let's say it's unlimited per manufacturer (unlikely), limited to cars <$50,000 (likely) and $7000/car (likely). Thus: $100B/7000 = 14.3M cars get the credit.

Now let's say $TSLA sells 1/3 of those cars (3x its European market share).

Thus 14.3M/3 = 4.8M Teslas

Read on...

1) Thread on gold/ $GLD...

I own a little $GLD but a lot more $SLV due to solar & and electronics)= demand. Here's why I recently cut our $GLD position:

If gold is "money," what matters is how much you can buy with it vs. fiat currency... 2) I believe that at gold's current price, a MASSIVE amount of future CPI inflation/dollar degradation is already priced in. Here's why:

Eyeing the long-term price chart, from 1989 to 2003 (plenty of time to establish price stability), gold opened & closed @ around $350...

This new song from "The Pretty Reckless" is the greatest "James Bond theme that isn't a James Bond theme" that I've ever heard! Wow, on second listen, this is the best new song I've heard all year-- it has a totally timeless sound to it!

She is friggin' GOOD!
papermag.com/the-pretty-rec…