Khamenei is dead. Good.

But I have family in Iran. My dad is there right now. And I'm not celebrating yet. Here's why.

Iran built the most layered contingency plan on Earth for this exact moment. Four levels of succession for every key position. Pre-authorized military strikes. Regional commanders who don't need orders from Tehran to act.

As you read this, there is already a new Supreme Leader. We just don't know who.

This isn't Maduro. The government didn't get overthrown. The system absorbed the hit. That's what it was designed to do.

Every credible intel assessment says the same thing: a post-Khamenei Iran is more likely to get harder, not softer. More IRGC. More dangerous. Potentially worse for the Iranian people than Khamenei himself.

Don't breathe yet. There's a long way to go. So what happens now?

My best guess:

1. New Supreme Leader named. Probably already picked

2. Killed quickly. Same intel that found Khamenei finds them

3. Next one goes underground. Misdirection about who's in charge

4. Foreign intelligence has enough moles to figure it out fast

5. More assassinations

6. Repeat until someone accepts the terms

The terms? Nuclear program. Missile program. And the big one nobody's talking about yet: the IRGC gets gutted

Not dissolved. We learned that lesson in Iraq. You don't disband millions of armed men who control 20-40% of the country's economy. That's how you get something worse than what you started with.

Reform and rebrand. Strip the nukes, the missiles, the economic empire, the proxy networks. Fold what's left into a conventional military. Let the new leadership save face. But the IRGC as we know it is done.

End state: less theocracy. Same regime underneath for now, but structurally defanged

Pahlavi comeback? Lowest likelihood imo

This ends when someone in Tehran decides survival matters more than ideology

I’m seeing a crazy rise this year of prospective tenants applying with fake pay stubs, references and bank statements.

It’s happening on a weekly basis with us and we’ve never come across it so frequently.

Some thoughts and my idea for something that doesn’t exist yet

🧵/1 It’s never been so easy to get fraudulent documents. It’s all over the place, do a quick Twitter or Facebook search and within seconds you’ll find multiple people offering their services

P.S. It’s illegal to use faked docs for income verification when applying, it’s fraud.

/2

Closed on my smallest deal today.

1BR condo for $77,500

Short term plan: Rent it for $1,1100/mo

Long term plan: Buy more in the same complex, gain intel on HOA by attending meetings and ultimately buy the entire complex as a deconversion

1 down, about 200 to go. Patience. Bought it Monday, tenant signed lease at $1,125 today.

Used @HelloAvail to list the unit, screen tenants, draft lease and collect the security deposit and first month rent. Great experience!