The latest @nytimes @SienaResearch poll is out, showing the presidential race tied.

Looking under the hood reveals a significant anomaly that should give all reporters pause, especially @Nate_Cohn, @ShaneGoldmacher & @RuthIgielnik

A BLACK THREAD
1/ The poll shows Harris receiving the support of 79% of Black voters. That is the glaring anomaly that should cause some reflection about what's going on 2/

The "post-mortems" about @staceyabrams's career have already begun, and as someone who has known and partnered with her for a decade now, I have a few thoughts THREAD 1/ All of us who believe that America should be a multi-racial democracy and not a white nationalist autocracy owe Stacey and are forever in her debt. We are all living in the house Stacey built - @JoeBiden, @SenSchumer, and anyone who has benefited from any policy in past 2 yrs; 2/

Given the widespread media pessimism about @staceyabrams' chances in Georgia’s gubernatorial elections, I decided to do a deep dive into the data.

THREAD (as promised)

https://twitter.com/StevePtweets/status/1587932137998626817

I braced myself for bad news, but what I found instead was a far more competitive — and winnable — race than almost anybody in the media is reporting. 2/

THREE big takeaways from last night's primary elections in NY & FL. 1/ The biggest "wake the kids, call the neighbors" result was @PatRyanUC's surprise win in the special election for @DelgadoforNY's old seat in NY's 19th district. 2/ time.com/6208259/pat-ry…

A recent question from a white major Democratic donor featured in this @axios piece by @alexi about whether Black candidates can run and win statewide races is the latest example of the dangers of implicit bias in politics. 🧵1/ axios.com/democrats-ques… First off, the passive voice masks the real issue/question—Will white voters back a Black candidate or will they defect to the R’s just because the Dem is Black?

Let’s call a spade a spade here.

The question isn’t “electability,” it’s racism. 2/

50-year @Browns fan here. Deeply, deeply disappointed in team's pursuit of @deshaunwatson. The lack of moral compass is jaw-dropping. All indications they’re simply calculating can they get away with it, not what this says about their core values THREAD 1/ Kevin Stefanski, Andrew Berry seem like decent people. Family men. Beyond how they explain this to their own families and children, what message are they sending to all Clevelanders and Browns fans everywhere? 2/

I have a lot of respect for @reidepstein, which is why I was surprised by his latest piece, "The Democratic Turnout Myth Unravels."

With all due respect, Reid, the article is WAY off the mark, and I have some thoughts. THREAD 1/ nytimes.com/2021/11/04/us/… Since the stakes are so high (literally, control of Congress in 2022), it’s also time to be blunt with my fellow Dems.

So apologies in advance for tone, but the comments of some D’s in that piece are quite alarming, and we absolutely must engage this debate. 2/

Will def have to write more on this but, for now, a 30K foot/sweep of history.

(Been working on my book for @thenewpress about how the Civil War never ended, so I’ve kinda got a 156-year time horizon on the brain.)

THREAD 1/
nytimes.com/2021/10/08/opi… In the piece linked above, @ezraklein lifts up @davidshor and his arguments and posits two fundamental theses.

First: The “Dem Party lost touch with the working-class voters of all races that it needs to win elections.” 2/

While @staceyabrams credits me & my wife w/ investing in GA "before it was logical," the signs were there if you knew what to look for. The question now is who's next?

In my latest for @thenation, I point to 4 factors for turning a red state blue. THREAD thenation.com/article/politi… 1.) Favorable demographic trends

Texas has the second-largest pool of nonvoting people of color (after already blue CA), and the numbers of potential voters of color far exceeds the margin of difference in statewide elections. thenation.com/article/politi…

#Veepstakes are underway & while everyone has an opinion for @joebiden there’s little actual data. Donors of Color Action released only poll thus far asking voters how they'd feel abt specific VP picks. It has important & overlooked findings A THREAD 1/ donorsofcoloraction.org/wp-content/upl… Poll was conducted by Merriman River Group from 3/23-4/5, in Midwestern states of Wisconsin (N=842) & Michigan (N=798) & asked voters abt @amyklobuchar @SenCortezMasto @staceyabrams @GovWhitmer @KamalaHarris @ewarren @RepValDemings @SenDuckworth 2/

@AsteadWesley offers excellent insight into dynamics of Iowa, Black voters & Obama in this @nytimes piece. There is indeed enormous misunderstanding (and, in the case of white candidates seeking to emulate O, wishful thinking). Two, maybe contradictory observations 1/

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1222565114987139074

One, it is absolutely true that Black voters were thrilled about and ready for Obama long before Iowa cast ballots. My college classmate @TreyEllis wrote this awesome August 2007 piece saying every Black Amer was going to back Obama huffpost.com/entry/no-matte… 2/

As Democrats gear up to spend $1 billion in 2020, we need to have a candid & constructive conversation about strategy and spending. 1/ THREAD Towards that end, I wrote a piece for @thenation where I tried to break down exactly who *is* the Democratic Party so that we could identify the decision-makers controlling the hundreds of millions of dollars 2/
thenation.com/article/democr…