A thread with excerpts from Napoleon's Other War: Bandits, Rebels and their Pursuers in the Age of Revolutions by Michael Broers: Banditry-cum-guerilla warfare was endemic to Corsica, where local notables waged blood feuds and maintained networks of armed men. As a young man, Napoleon and his family had far more exposure to this kind of war than to "conventional" fighting of artillery and big battalions.

Machiavelli (in Discourses on Livy) on how difficult it is to change political institutions that have outlived their purpose. They can't be changed through normal politics (they *are* the normal politics) and someone willing to bypass them rarely has the public good in mind. A major challenge to a state moving from authoritarianism to republican government -- all of the hacks who "were prevailing under the tyrannical state" feel obligated to it, while those who prosper under freedom simply believe they are getting what they deserve.

Richard Pipes describes the Kievan Rus as initially resembling "the East India or Hudson's Bay companies, founded to make money but compelled by the absence of any administration in the area of their operations to assume quasi-governmental responsibilities."

Mongol influence has etched itself into the Russian language. It is the origin of numerous Russian words relating to administration or brutality, from money (деньги) to shackles (кандалы).

The NDS, the former Afghan government's intelligence agency, was actually quite good at infiltrating the Taliban, running agents inside Pakistan, and compiling evidence that the Taliban was backed by the ISI as part of a deliberate plot to destabilize Afghanistan.



The US dismissed this as an excuse to cover for the Afghan government's weakness and corruption.

Thread with excerpts from Phoenix and the Birds of Prey: Counterinsurgency and Counterterrorism in Vietnam by Mark Moyar: Local support for the Viet Cong was not motivated by nationalism or communism (which even many party members had a weak understanding of) but by village level grievances, especially support for land reform and lower rents and interest rates.

Thread with excerpts from the SIGAR report on the collapse of the Afghan Security Forces: sigar.mil/pdf/evaluation… Afghan troops went into "survival mode" after the US-Taliban deal in Doha, seeing it as a sign their government was on its way out. The US forced Afghanistan to release 5,000 Taliban prisoners, who subsequently became the core of their final offensive.

In the immediate aftermath of WW2 in communist Poland, low level secret policemen were recruited "wherever we could get them". Some were former gang members, had nothing else to do, or felt "important to carry a weapon." Many had to be taught to read and write in their training. Unsurprisingly they became known for casual violence, drunkenness, and looting, frequently at the same time.

Thread with excerpts from France: The Dark Years 1940-1944 by Julian Jackson Interwar France was obsessed with birthrates, seeing its decline in population relative to Germany and other states as a threat to its status as a great power. Cash prizes were offered to parents of large families and conservatives wanted to give them extra votes.

"The Okhrana [Tsarist secret police] devoted particular attention to stimulating and encouraging the activities of the Bolsheviks" who they believed weakened the revolutionary movement as whole, due to their unwillingness to cooperate with other factions. From The Russian Secret Police:
Muscovite, Imperial Russian and Soviet Political Security Operations 1565–1970
by Ronald Hingley

Rereading some of Orwell's essays (which are, in my mind, better than his better known books) and what he writes about H. G. Wells and WW2 could just as easily be written about a whole collection of 21st century liberals and Ukraine. orwell.ru/library/review… Also, imagine thinking that the antithesis of the rational, modern world state is . . . Napoleon.

The Pareto principle strikes again -- the median American consumes less than one alcoholic drink per week, but the top 10% consume an average of *73.85.*
washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2… That works out to "four-and-a-half 750 ml bottles of Jack Daniels, 18 bottles of wine, or three 24-can cases of beer. In one week."

Thread with excerpts from Blood of the Provinces: The Roman Auxilia and the Making of Provincial Society from Augustus to the Severans by Ian Hayes Much of the early work on Roman auxiliaries in the late 19th and early 20th centuries was explicitly conducted in the hope that it would provide insights for European colonial powers on managing native military units.

Saddam Hussein believed that both the Mongol sack of Baghdad in 1258 and the popularity of Pokemon were the result of a vast Jewish conspiracy against the Arabs. He also believed the US orchestrated the removal of the Shah in Iran in order to turn the Gulf Monarchies against Iraq.

In honor of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, a thread with excerpts from Chinese Tactics, the US Army's new manual on PLA (especially PLAA) doctrine.
armypubs.army.mil/epubs/DR_pubs/… Characteristics of the operational environment from China's perspective. (I'll note that I don't expect "continued liberalization" of the Chinese economy)

The first recorded instance of what would today be called paramilitary covert action: In the mid 13th century BC Tawagalawa Letter, Hittite King Hattusili III wrote to the king of Ahhiyawa (Mycenaean Greece) saying he knew he was supporting rebels in Hittite territory. The letter concerns an individual named Piyamaradu, an Anatolian rebel who was raiding into Hittite territory, and who was given asylum by the Greek King. Hattusili asked for him to be expelled, handed over to the Hittites, or at least prohibited from attacking Hittite lands.

People hate bankers but this if they can't get their loans paid back, especially because of violence, they're not going to make them (or only make them at exorbitant rates of interest) and the community will be harmed in the long run.

https://twitter.com/Partisan_O/status/1552115717952217093

Ordinary people depend on credit to do things like start businesses and aquire property. If those things are impossible without a giant stockpile of cash already at hand most people will not be able to.

This 2016 article on the CIA's and Pentagon's programs to fight ISIS and support Syrian rebels is a stunning parade of bureaucratic incompetence. sofrep.com/news/us-specia… Special Forces soldiers watched 30 of the guys they trained flee "three or four ISIS guys." CIA officers had to talk rebel leaders out of joining ISIS and one wanted the agency to reimburse him for an expensive suit he lost.

In Lebanon in 2006, Hezbollah fighters held positions during firefights of up to 24 hours without withdrawing. In some cases, they fought at extremely close quarters (less than 100 meters away) and were destroyed in place. press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/641/ Hezbollah attempted some counterattacks after their defensive positions were taken but they were sporadic and never above platoon strength.

Advice on organizing a guerilla band and collecting intelligence, from the WW2 British SOE's Partisan Leader's Handbook. archive.org/details/SOE_Pa… Advice on planning an ambush. The SOE recommends placing gunmen on both sides of the road, which most modern infantrymen would consider . . . ill-advised.

Indicators that China is preparing an invasion of Taiwan, from The Chinese Invasion Threat by Ian Easton A likely timetable for an amphibious assault on Taiwan.

A full list of US attempts at covert regime change during the Cold War, from Covert Regime Change by Lindsey O'Rourke. Somewhat striking just how ineffective it was against governments openly aligned with the USSR, as opposed to democracies and US allies. *"dissidents" includes giving support to insurgents or separatist movements.