Subhadip Nandy Profile picture
Trader
vinay s Profile picture Puneet, IMT-Gzb, NCFM-Derivatives Profile picture Vijesh Profile picture nitin kumar tyagi Profile picture Selvakumar Profile picture 21 added to My Authors
15 Sep
How I trade these levels. See the BNF Balance at 36613. When BNF took support there, simply sold the 36600pe at 197 with SL 213 ( day high)
213-197 = 16 = 1R

sqedoff 50% at 171 ( 197-171 = 26 = 1.6R)
sqedoff 25% at 152 ( 197-152 = 2.8R)
rest 25% SL at 190
Now how much do you sell ?
Say you have a capital of 10 lacs and your risk per trade is 0.5% per trade = Rs.5000
5000/R = 5000/16 = 300 ( 12 lots)
You sqoff 6 lots at 171, 3 lots at 152 and keep last 3 lots with 190SL
This is the position management
Read 5 tweets
25 Aug
Maybe I am predicting a bit early, but the high of 16713 can be a top for sometime. Will get confirmation on closing ( today and tomorrow, 2 days of closings)and once this expiry gets over. Extremely dangerous negative divergences are shaping up on RSI and MFI
For TA enthusiasts, this is what I am seeing.
Negative divergences on MFI and RSI, MACD histogram.

Remember " a divergence is like a weather forecast that it may rain, but not a guarantee that it will rain. You prepare by carrying an umbrella when going out" - Martin Pring
oh sorry, missed the pic
Read 4 tweets
23 Aug
Received quite a large number of enquiries on the main option trading webinar and the live handholding group. Rather than answering individually, explaining the major points here .

First read this : quantgym.biz/workshop
This is a fully recorded workshop with 12+ hours of video. You also get access to all tools used in this workshop. System codes are on tradingview,
they are "invite only " indicators ( meaning you will be able to use the systems for lifetime, but the codes are locked )
You can subscribe if interested and start learning at your own pace. You will need a few weeks to understand and assimilate the concepts as they
are quite exhaustive and vast.
Read 12 tweets
21 Aug
My presentation on Money Management was based on a lot of sources as I mentioned. For traders interested on those sources , here they are
#OptimalF
Portfolio Management Formulas: Mathematical Trading Methods for the Futures, Options, and Stock Markets by Ralph Vince

The Mathematics of Money Management: Risk Analysis Techniques for Traders by Ralph Vince
Read 11 tweets
20 Aug
Today's freak trade on the Nifty 16450CE reminds me of a very recent clubhouse discussion I had. Explained a black swan risk and how even an intraday trader faces it unknowingly. By definition, a black Swan is such an unexpected event that you have no way to prepare
The person who has posted the screen shot of losing 2 lacs plus on 10 lots of 16450CE is an intraday straddle seller. His backtests did not account for 100 rupee sold options getting sqedof at 600 or 800
So, this risk was not modelled into his backtest. Hence this is a black swan for him. The funniest part is, even after this all backtesting softwares will show profits as stops will be shown at say 120 or so on backtests
Read 5 tweets
20 Aug
Ok, time for some analysis. 65% said they will wait for the SL as per eod close. 35% said they would sqoff intraday.
Who is correct and who is wrong ?
Those who said intraday, say Reliance broke 2078 and you sqoff the trade, then it immediately jumps to 2085. What do you do, re enter ? then again it breaks 2078, what do you do, exit ?

This can go on for quite some time
The logic of the intraday sqoff comes from this idea that if Reliance falls say another 10-20% from 2078 by the time market closes, you are facing a bigger loss.
This idea is correct in futures/cash, but not in options
Read 12 tweets
5 Aug
Ok, so completed the 4th day of live handholding today. We are doing positional as well as day-trading. Lots of old students repeating the handholding to practice. My methods are also getting sharper :)
Whenever some one asks me what returns they can expect after doing the course, my answer is " returns are a function of risk ". When pushed further, my standard answer is " around 3%", I never ever commit above this 😀
This is the actual performance of my day-trading calls. All trades explained with logic so that traders can now repeat the trades on their own.
Capital = 10 lacs. Returns given for 3 scenarios :
1% per trade risk, 0.5% per trade risk and 0.25% per trade risk
Read 6 tweets
5 Aug
Stock trade on @CNBC_Awaaz :

Reliance bull call spread
Buy 1*2100CE at 43 & sell 1*2200CE at 13
Net debit = 13 = Max loss
SL if Reliance fut breaks 2078
Technical charts on which this view is based , self explanatory
Nifty option strategy suggested :
Call ratio spread
Buy 1*16350CE ( 12 Aug expiry ) at 65 , sell 2* 16500CE ( 12th Aug expiry) at 26
Net debit = 13. Max profit at 16500
Unlimited risk > 16650
( disclaimer : we are already in this strategy)
Read 4 tweets
30 Jul
30th July ranges :

Nifty fut : 15952/15618
Balance = 15785

BankNifty fut : 35015/34425
Balance = 34720
Received quite a few questions on how to use these levels, so here are some basic rules

1. 85% of the days, the markets will remain within these levels
2. When there is a breakout/breakdown of any one side, expect a fast large move that day
3. Bullish above the Balance, bearish below it
4. If we are bearish, one can sell CALLs above the upper level and vice versa
5. If bearish, look for sells from your other indicators to buy options and vice versa
6. Expect strong resistance/support at the upper/lower levels
Read 5 tweets
29 Jul
When I started learning technical analysis, took me six months before I could draw trendlines correctly so that I could trust and trade on them.
RSI ?Divergences ? another six months😃
The way I use MFI ? 2 years 😃

Any TA tool like metastock, amibroker or tradingview has hundreds of indicators. Try mastering one at a time, you will master max 2-4 in the next few years
Let's say there is a very good swordsman. He has a very good sharp sword, perfectly balanced.

He gives you that sword, will you be able to fight as good as the swordsman ?
Read 8 tweets
29 Jul
Markets are dynamic, so your analysis should also be dynamic ( change as new data comes in)

BNF now
see the MFI attempting upside breakout before price. So now if price breaks out , that will be a confirmation
I am ready now for an upside spike
Read 10 tweets
24 Jul
A short thread on #MFI

The basics here :

school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=te…
Technical analysis says two things :
1. Momentum precedes price
2. Volumes precedes price

So, if an indicator includes momentum and volume analysis, it will be a leading indicator to some extent. This is the crux why I am so much confident on MFI
The indicator can be used for swing as well as day-trading. I use a period of 10 as I have seen that being our responsive to our markets here
Read 10 tweets
20 Jul
I had this theory that if #Bitcoin went below $30k , this time it probably won't go up again. Let's see
1. I had earlier posted a distribution analysis for bitcoin
2. Traders have been primed by the price action of the past few months where it goes below $30k on weekends and then bounces back. This dip should see heavy accumulation from retail and thus a perfect distribution point
If this is not distribution, I don't know what is. If I were trading this, would have shorted below $29k with a stop at $31k and then progressively trailed stops
Read 8 tweets
20 Jul
BNF
NF
One can have any view looking at anything. Question is, do you trade your view ?
Read 9 tweets
20 Jul
Spread initiated at 2.60, now at 6. A loss of 3.40 per lot. Waiting with the spread, no adjustments as of now
#hcltech
Loss as of now is approx Rs.2300 per lot
If this loss crosses 10k, will sqoff the position and book losses. Else will wait.
Read 4 tweets
19 Jul
The lines win :)
Day's job done 😋
MFI reached 3 within the bar, extreme oversold. So sold 15800PE
Read 5 tweets
19 Jul
Results trading is one of the biggest plays on options markets worldwide. The theory goes like this :
Before results, IVs shoot up as both bulls and bears buy options expecting a major move in their chosen direction.
Now, it has been a proven theory that IVs "generally" overstate the actual move that happens post results. This has given rise to the famous results trades for options sellers where the sell straddles or strangles in order to capture the volatility crush post results.
Their trades are based on a higher POP per trade but less absolute profits per trade. Some results obviously are totally against any market expectations and the stock makes a huge move. This gives a major delta loss as well as sometimes when IV goes up, also a vega loss whammy.
Read 12 tweets
18 Jul
Tomorrow we should see extreme volatility given the ongoing newsflow
before pouncing on the ndtv link, learn to do some basic research, else you won't survive long in the markets. See washington post and this :
Read 5 tweets
17 Jul
Received a lot of queries on this as majority of the view that "IV generally drops post results", so any long vega strategy will lead to a loss and it's better to sell straddles/strangles.

I know that options selling to capture IV crush is a worldwide strategy :)
But what none of the responses have seemed to remember that there is also "generally" a vol expansion before results, generally starts 10 days before results declaration or earlier.
Look what happened to HDFCBANK IVs this time
Simple question : If there has been no vol expansion, can there be a further vol crush ?
Answer can be yes or no, both things possible. But the probabilities favour zero or minimal vol crush. Also remember, the theory of vol crush post results are "generally" , not a surety.
Read 9 tweets
16 Jul
Start with R multiples, profit booking becomes mechanical without emotions. I will explain.

Enter at 200, SL 195. Risk(R) = 5. Risk per trade = Rs.2000
Qty = 2000/5 = 400
1. Book profits on 50%( 200 qty) at 1.6R or greater ( 208) and modify SL to 200 ( entry price) (1/n)
2. Book profits on next 25% ( 100 qty) at 2.5R( 212.5) and modify SL to 208
3. Last 25% continue chasing with a R trail of 1R below current price

You may change initial book to 2R also. But minimum profit booking has to be 1.6R or above
even if you are 50% correct on your trades, this money mgmt logic will give you net profits. Now the system/logic you are trading must have that edge and that R expectation of minimum 1.6R on a trade. Below that, you won't win in the long run
Read 5 tweets
16 Jul
Perhaps you have the idea that calling me " 1 lot Nandy" is somehow derogatory and a easy poke at me. Allow me to explain why I look at this moniker as a badge of honour
I have traded 1 lot continuously twice in my life. The first in 2003 after I blew up on my INFY trade. I traded 1 lot ACC fut consistently and made 50k in a month
The 2nd time in 2013. When I suffered continuous losses for 5-6 months due to a variety of psychological issues. Then I traded 1 lot Nifty options consistently for 3 months. After that 2 lots for next 1 month and slowly increased
Read 8 tweets