Positional analysis on Nifty. These are just pointers from charts and indicators which should be kept in mind for the rest of this March expiry Negative divergence on RSI and MFI
Volatility divergence on Bollinger Bands
MACD is sell signal, raw MACD line sloping down

Nifty puts added OI from 22000-22000 which is normal as Nifty went up, so is the cut in the 22k ce OI.
What is abnormal is the cut in 22500pe, that should have added OI by the same logic.
So we now watch two strikes :
Nifty bullish if 22500pe trades below 310 and 22000pe trades below 80.

Nifty bearish if 22500pe trades above 392 and 22000pe trades above 150


On BNF , two strikes stand out. The addition on the 47k ce ( thrice that of 47k pe) and addition in ITM 46500ce.

So we will watch these two strikes
BN bullish if the 46500ce trades above 1175 and 47000ce trades above 870
BN bearish if 46500ce trades below 850 and 47000ce trades below 580.

What's very interesting is the OI behavior on the 46500ce , the sellers kept on selling even when BN went up without any fear.

Makes me say they know something which makes BN much more bearish than NIFTY

BankNifty had an almost 28% increase in COI today. This COI increase in a large range day ( up or down) would have been justifiable, not in a range day like today. The only logic can be the coming RBI MPC meet from which someone is expecting something very very big So I went back for the last couple of years and tried to check how BN behaves after such and increase in COI

Thanks to everyone who enquired about my well being. For the last almost 2 months, suffering from probable long covid symptoms.

1. I am a type 2 diabetic. Sugar etc was always under control. Now sugars, cholesterol etc have all shot thru the roof. HBA1C at 9 , ACR is 130 2. Joint pains at shoulder , xray-usg-mri does not find any physical reasons

3. Huge fatigue. Getting out of bed or going out is a chore.

Why am I saying this, the explanation 🧵

https://twitter.com/SubhadipNandy16/status/1584379436597915648

First, some basic statistics :

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68%E2%80%…

One question which I often get asked is what is the minimum capital one requires to trade options .

Here is my take on this topic : A 🧵 The least notional value contract as of now is a lot of Nifty.
50*18000 = 9 lacs approx

investopedia.com/terms/n/notion…

One trade so far on #sentient . waited out the morning as no signals, bought the reversal after the selloff as per setup, out now This was the trade as per setup. Logic explained, booked partial as per money mgmt rules, targeting explained

Not a clean bull case YET. I would be careful around this region. This weekly expiry might belong to bulls, but positionally a strong hurdle ahead BTW, on candlesticks we had a BULLISH KICKER PATTERN. Rare and difficult to trade. But guranteed you won't get a boring market for next few days. Read 👇

therobusttrader.com/bullish-kicker…

This setup was shared on #Sentient on 23rd morning as a positional target for BNF And this for Nifty fut. The chart/setup is self explanatory and I have openly explained this on twitter hundreds of times. This indicator combination is my bread & butter template

This is actually an interesting question and a correct observation. Many people before you also have made this observation, so I am going to explain this the best I can

https://twitter.com/vaibhav2631/status/1573300093947899904

I am trading since badla days. There being long meant you had to pay badla / interest and being short meant you received badla. Similar to an options buyer having theta burn and an options seller being theta positive. So the bias among pros were being short bit

Current update of these 55 min charts. Scenario looks precarious

https://twitter.com/SubhadipNandy16/status/1571893053446852609

For people commenting on that thread that " bola tha" or " you are wrong", kindly get a lesson in basic comprehension

Showing a simple data analysis, mainly OI/COI analysis to show how I pick up direction from OI. This pic is of COI ( cumulative OI of 3 months added) of BNF. See that huge COI buildup yesterday. OI = net longs = net shorts at end of day. Question is, who is winning ?

What's up ITC ? Disclaimer : running positions from lower levels. Whenever I post about ITC, please assume that I have positions

Good question. Let me explain this with the data I was watching. Will explain the current scenario too.

First read this :
investopedia.com/terms/a/a-d-ra….

https://twitter.com/mayank_1500/status/1537346075798908929

This is the NSE total AD line. See the move from march 2020 and the exhaustion from dec 21

The sharp dip/selloff in March 2020 was followed by an equally sharp bounce-back and a bull market. Traders who have not seen a true bear market think that that's how markets operate.
Problem is that bounce-back was financed by money printing by all the central banks of the world This bias I am seeing in a lot of tweets where people are jumping over each other in providing lists on what to buy. Everyone thinks that by being the first to suggest buys, they would be lauded as heroes when the market finally goes up ( it always ultimately goes up, right?)

As of now

https://twitter.com/SubhadipNandy16/status/1528064617410605056

BITCOIN

Jokes apart, let's see what the charts say. I normally do not open systems on a Saturday, but this friday move, SGX dance and finally the fuel excise cut made me curious. Do read with a pinch of salt as my decision might be clouded by the fact that I am carrying longs 😎 Positive divergences on RSI and MFI

In early 2000s, we traded a stock called Ramco Systems. The stock was purely operator driven with regular buying and selling freezes. Such volatility attracted us daytraders like moths to a fire. The bullish ones amongst us as well as the bearish ones, all lost money whatever we did. It was that kind of absurd moves, this was one operator whom we absolutely failed to decipher. So someone amongst us came up with a theory .

Hey cryptobros, see 29k on Bitcoin ? see it well, jee bharke dekh lo :)

This time I am actually shorting bitcoin. The time for "tawk" is over. Action now ! Short from 29628, trailig SL now at 29422

All ye option sellers all over the land,
Dont criticise what you don't understand.
For the times they are a changin...

( with apologies to Bob Dylan 🤣 ) In 2019, I traded 5 live expiries in front of 100-250 people. Was profitable in every one of them. 3 of them were open. Traders Carnival at Delhi and Goa, Kotak PCG at Mumbai.
Returns were 2 to 5%
I would like to see the gyanis of twitter do that freaking once, just once.

Since I am a firm believer in technical analysis, this is what I see on bitcoin2. You may differ if you are not a believer. As long as bitcoin trades below 29k, the following scenario is what is projected by the charts. View invalidated on two weekly closings > 29k This is the chart. Do note the narrowing of the Bollinger Bands, this is symptomatic of a large move. Charts are suggesting a major breakdown