I think AI is going to cause an explosion of noise and ultimately make markets less efficient to fundamental information. Focus, quiet, and discipline are going to pay more going forward.
Important to note the edge paradox plays still - people who gain informational edges often look at the market and say “wow this is irrational” and then the instant they are done buying/selling the stock, they get frustrated because “the market is being irrational.”
Feb 13, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
The bias in evaluating AI products is huge. For several years, believing in the hot new tech of the moment has generally ended poorly from a reputational standpoint. Based on that recent outcome data, people are heavily incentivized to not take shiny new tech seriously right now.
People are very focused on the current flaws in the products that are easily available, completely ignoring that those products are (a) already outdated, and (b) unrefined and refined versions are already doing much better.
Oct 3, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
What if:
1) the real time data is bad, getting worse, more and more things -YoY 2) inflation data starts lapping high prints and current data starts mixing in -> relentless deceleration 3) but earnings are indeed weak ‘23E 4) BUT market ignores ST earnings, trades on ‘24E, 25E
I continue to think inflation is really the only thing that matters and if it’s hot and earnings go down you get a double whammy but if it calms down IMO you don’t want to be short on NTM earnings.
Apr 6, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Is it possible inflation has already peaked?
Used cars, freight rates, chips, oil, etc. off high. goods -> services consumption pivot helping supply chains? Noodling
Feb 8, 2022 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Web3 explained: People see the world as rigged against them, and they see shills everywhere. They find it refreshing that the Web3 people are openly shills/scammers, and they hope they can get in on it.
It’s pure, honest cynicism without the false pretexts.
Or as a friend put it to me, “what if we marketed wars very deliberately as just sending young men to horrible death, and people still wanted to do it. No glory, just what it is. Is it different? Maybe?”
Oct 4, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
These new grocery delivery apps (Gorilla, 1520, etc) are amazing. I cannot for the life of me figure out how they will ever make money, but wow they’re awesome.
Personally, marginal propensity to cook goes way up with the ability to have ingredients essentially meet me at home (and at a discount) on the way home + ability to have those handful of things you forgot at the store show up in 15 is huge. +cart size changes a lot -> waste less
Sep 23, 2021 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Products tested
x
Products shipped
x
Product success rate
Obviously >0 tested & shipped better than zero but at low N actually requires insane success rate. Tricky when competing with companies who are testing thousands of things and shipping hundreds globally.
Certain value theses in tech unexpectedly morph into a binary bet on a single product’s success, often one that doesn’t exist yet, from companies with historical 10-50% hit rates. Which is why the multiple is justifiably stuck on the floor because the terminal value is ????
Jul 24, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Golden rule of social media:
It’s never actually you on the platform. It’s always a character you create, intentionally or not. People are perceiving this very limited set of information and creating a perceived character. It may or may not correlate with who you are.
The “creation” of the character by the observer is a pattern matching / extrapolation that introduces a lot of heuristics / bias by the audience.
Anon/Pseudononymous handles know this well. But this is not a new thing to social media. It is precisely the basis of stand up comedy
May 20, 2021 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
The increasing trend in technology is the creation of essentially video games you can’t not play if you want to be successful.
The public pitch of marketplaces and communities ignores a stark reality that if there were not serious game theory ramifications, those ideas would suck as businesses. In many cases they must be violent prospects in the philosophical sense.
Apr 19, 2021 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
Since I’m getting flamed due to @NeckarValue post. Emerging managers have a sub 5% *survival* rate. That’s not success, that’s survival. look within that <5%, success cases almost never were what one would call a start up. Institutional LPs, huge bank roll, just not $1B+ day 1
The exceptions to that are 0.1% of people, and they will privately tell you it was outrageous luck that they made it. Many big names were a week from closing when a big LP randomly came in. Some had to close 2-4 weeks early.
Feb 13, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Unpopular opinion: right now is a terrible time to backfit an investment process from wanting to be a long term holder. Seems like everyone says they want to be a concentrated 10+ year holder right now.
I don’t find bullish/bearish sentiment stuff valuable, but I do find stated time horizon preference a very useful sentiment indicator. When everyone is stating a super long term, super concentrated preference, 100% historical record of that being outed as a false preference.
Jan 3, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
👇👇👇👇
What is missed by nearly all fans of WEB is the distinction between lessons of how to rule vs lessons of how to conquer. WEB is a ruler, and his displayed lessons of how to rule are beyond elite. But they are not how you get to, or he got to, rule.
There was a recent podcast by @BillBrewsterSCG with @Greenbackd where I thought Tobias did an excellent job of talking about his learning process of what I would call the “eternal strategies” of ruling, going back to Sun Tzu.
Sep 29, 2020 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
Hot Take: “Value” in the way most people use the term is never coming back. Most of the factors people look to for a potential “return to value” (rates, inflation, regulation, etc) will actually amplify the competitive disadvantage most “value” companies have against competitors.
Gonna tip my hand on some of the stuff I’m writing right now that’s unpublished, but I think people sitting at spreadsheets do not understand the changes that have happened in competitive strategies and the tools available to businesses.
Sep 27, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
A friend sent me a copy of this. If you can look past the schtick there’s actually some really good stuff in here.
amazon.com/TB12-Method-Li…
Some commentary on the book tries to argue about particular beliefs Brady and his coach have (alkaline based diet views, seemingly odd views on which combinations of food to eat, etc.) that don’t replicate in studies (what does in nutrition? Impossible to get a consistent sample)
Sep 22, 2020 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Thanks to @RealVision for having me on again to talk about our views on a "social boom" post COVID, what we're looking at and our framework for doing so, and some single name ideas. Hope you enjoy!
- COVID ending is a when not if, this needs to be central to your thinking if you are an investor
- there will be volatility and specific instances of default and other liquidity issues, but we do not think anything systemic is going to happen
Sep 21, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Reminder: Never steal under a billion dollars or there will be serious consequences.
“If you owe the bank $100 that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that's the bank's problem.”
it’s also true that
‘If you steal $100 that’s your problem. If you steal $1 billion, that’s the government’s problem.’
Don’t rock the boat baby. Don’t tip the boat over
Sep 21, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
This is one of many examples of why @AnchorlessBD invested in @gazehq. Image recognition is everywhere but the systems around it are incomplete, problematic, and frankly terrible at anything that isn’t white people. And the systems will prioritize what they’re better at.
