Quick thoughts on today's spectacular Ukrainian #drone strike on Russian airbases:

1) This was a highly successful -covert- operation -- and those tend to be hard to replicate: Once the (potential) target knows the weak points, they can patch them. So.... /1 2) ...this doesn't mean drones have rendered long-range manned aircraft obsolete in war. But...

3) ...US airbases are absolutely vulnerable to the same type of attack, at least once. We need to disperse aircraft, install nets to stop small drones, & anti-aircraft vs big ones. /2

THE CUT THAT NEVER WAS: So the 8% annual cut that @SecDef Pete Hegseth was reportedly about to order at the Pentagon… turns out not to be a cut to defense at all. Instead, as my editor @AaronMehta wrote last night, the plan is to -reallocate- 8% of spending -within- …/1
…the DoD budget from “legacy” programs to Trump priorities. You can read Aaron’s full story below, co-written with my colleague @ashroque13.

I know this news is disappointing to those on both the left and right who think the US spends too much …/2

breakingdefense.com/2025/02/pentag…

PHYSICS IS STILL A THING, DAMMIT. Normally I wouldn't pick on Gen. (ret) Mark Milley & Google (ret) Eric Schmidt, who've done a ton to drag the US military into the 21st century, but their @ForeignAffairs piece out today makes a mistake people KEEP MAKING, and I am LOSING IT. /1 @ForeignAffairs Don't get me wrong, drones are amazing...but the catch-all term "drones" (or UAVs/UAS/RPAs) conceals a trap, because it makes it all too easy to make mistakes like this one, where Miley & @ericschmidt compare a $400~ FPV hobby drone, a $30~ MILLION MQ-9 Reaper, & an $80M F-35. /2

SWARM WARS: Pentagon holds toughest drone-defense demo to date. Eight counter-UAS systems — wielding a mix of radars, machineguns, missiles, jammers, and more — were tested against swarms of up to 50 drones of different types attacking simultaneously from different directions. /1 Read our full story online at breakingdefense.com/2024/07/swarm-…

Well, crap. I wrote last year that jamming was so effective against drones over Ukraine that there was no point in hardening them & it’s better to just buy lots of expendable ones, but I’d hoped the US might square that circle. Per @WSJ today, the answer is a resounding no [1/n]:





Here’s that @WSJ article (link buried in second post to deceive evil algorithms): [2/n] wsj.com/world/how-amer…

What do Dune, Star Wars, Star Trek, Rome (the empire), Hamilton (the musical), and Hazbin Hotel (also the musical) tell us about the American Dream & the deep roots of US strategic power?

Yes, my idiosyncratic obsessions really do intersect here, bear with me. [1/n]

One thing that struck me about #HazbinHotel is how -wholesome- it is. Yes, this foul-mouthed musical by a proudly bisexual woman (@vivziepop), whose protagonists are the literal daughter of Lucifer, her girlfriend, and a drug-addicted gay porn star with spider arms…. [2/n]

A sobering article indeed on Ukrainian tactical shortcomings in @WarOnTheRocks , excellently summed up by @BrynnTannehill in this thread:

https://twitter.com/brynntannehill/status/1665338635019771904

The big unanswered question: Are the elite assault brigades pulled off the line for intensive Western training able to free themselves from the dysfunctional post-Soviet legacy? washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/…

Ok, this Russian TV analysis is a gleaming pearl of bullshit grown from a single grain of truth. This gets technical, but TLDR: Russian tank guns can also shoot guided missiles for long-range targets… in theory. [1]

https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1618589496802516993

So, back in the 1950s & 60s, there was a school that said long-range anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) would make tanks obsolete. (Sound familiar?) One bright idea tank designers came up with in response was dual-mode tank cannons that could fire regular shells -or- ATGMs. [2]

Wait, ⁦@washingtonpost⁩ says #Leopard2 weighs 15 tons more than #M1 #Abrams? That…. can’t be right? From this otherwise solid article by @mradamtaylor @wneff & Daniel Wolfe @sadbumblebee : washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/…