The never-ending suspense in Lebanon has inevitably rattled our team, especially given the long succession of other crises it adds into.

It’s not just us: We see distress peaking all around. We thought a small contribution would be to open up about steps we’ve taken to cope 🧵 From the start, we set up an information system to track events. It’s a daily update: factual, short, dependable. It helps us reduce individual scrolling, and fits events into a coherent arc.

After a few weeks, we trained a young analyst to relieve our team from this task.

The Gaza war has triggered an unprecedented malaise in the civic sector across the Middle East.

Many local NGOs question their financial dependency on countries and donors whose values and positions conflict with their own. 🧵 Most have come to expect a pro-Israel bias from Western countries.

More shocking is the disregard for Palestinian rights, indifference to the conflict’s history, endorsement of excessive violence, and the labeling of anything and everything as antisemitic.

Lebanon witnesses a dangerous uptick—and not just on its border.

In Beirut and beyond, we see a rise in chaotic, citizen-led violence. It targets Syrians for now, but reflects a broader breakdown in law and order which everyone will suffer from 🧵 For context: Earlier this year, the Lebanese army swept up Syrians at checkpoints, and deported those without valid residency.

This state-led crackdown has now shifted toward a bottom-up campaign of violence, harassment, and theft, notably in Meten and Keserwan.

THREAD: The area around Lebanon’s Lake Qaraoun is known as much for its stunning views as its levels of pollution; but our fellow @mortada29 discovered that, unlike the rest of the country, it also enjoys electricity almost round the clock This is where Lebanon invested most in hydroelectric power, building three plants to harness energy from the Litani River in the 1950s. “At first they covered the country’s entire needs,” said an employee of the plant on the lake. “Now it’s between 3 and 10%.”

THREAD Lebanon has yet to take any steps to start building a productive economy. By contrast, it is moving fast to salvage what’s left of its rent economy by tapping international aid Given Lebanon’s weak exports and dismal environment for foreign investments, the aid sector represents a rare source of hard currency, which may easily land in the wrong hands

THREAD Lebanon has continually warned of a looming covid crisis over the past six months, while doing very little to shore up its capacity to manage one. The reason is not a lack of resources, but an inefficient (albeit time-tested) way of allocating them Amazingly, the crisis has not served to revive public health infrastructure. Several public hospitals remain abandoned, such as the Turkish-funded hospital in Saida and the Emirati equivalent in Shebaa, along with facilities in Qartaba and Saksakiya

THREAD Beirut’s fast-moving, bottom-up disaster response has given the capital a much-needed injection of practical support and collective purpose. But this model also has pitfalls, which may prove self-defeating unless local and foreign actors adjust The speed and energy of Beirut’s response effort have been remarkable: An army of volunteers of diverse backgrounds instantly stepped into the void left by the state, and cleared large areas buried beneath glass and debris

THREAD As donor states gather to pledge aid to Lebanon, they must tread carefully, or risk rewarding a regime that has proven not just corrupt, but unwilling and incapable of serving its people For years, Lebanese factions have profited from countless foreign-funded development projects—from redundant infrastructure to vacuous “capacity building” programs

Given the scale of destruction, we feel it is relevant to share these raw excerpts from a short, informal interview we conducted on 6 August 2017 with a low-ranking port officer in Beirut. It says volumes about the state of affairs that led to this calamity. "As a customs officer, I make just 900 dollars per month, working only night shifts. The only reason why I do this kind of thing is that I must support my two parents, who are old but alive, and depend on me. [...]

THREAD Since March, the Syrian government has reacted to the covid epidemic primarily through measures designed to hide the problem from view. The result is that—as Syria now buzzes with stories of a growing outbreak—the country is less prepared than ever Mirroring other governments, Damascus’ first move was to restrict traffic into and around the country. The lockdown was both implemented inconsistently and tremendously costly, halting the already strained flow of dollars from neighboring Lebanon

THREAD As Lebanon’s suffering seems to swell endlessly, it is important to remind ourselves that the country is in fact undergoing a transition from one model to another. The former was always unsustainable; the latter is begging to be born The political class will predictably hamper this transformation, but cannot prevent it altogether. It will occur to a large extent mechanically, driven by forces which no amount of propaganda, obstruction, or clientelism can hold back

THREAD For years, governments who describe themselves as “friends of Lebanon” groomed the country’s ruling class to behave as it is doing today. Foreign officials now condemn Lebanese politicians for the exact same behaviors they used to condone Constant foreign meddling has fueled the Lebanese establishment’s tendency to blame all its problems on external schemes—even the country’s financial collapse, which is straightforwardly due to a homegrown, well-documented Ponzi scheme

THREAD After the war, collapse: Syria’s currency is tumbling. Hyperinflation has brought its broken economy to a halt, rendering essential goods like food and medicine scarcer by the day. Paradoxically, Syria successfully defended the pound throughout years of vicious conflict Now it is losing control for reasons that are only partly obvious. The timing suggests a link to Lebanon’s bankruptcy and escalating US sanctions. But other factors are likely at play, which Syria’s lack of transparency make difficult to parse

THREAD Lebanon’s negotiations with the International Monetary Fund introduce a novel dynamic: Unlike other external parties who have spent years bailing Lebanon out, the IMF would demand much in return for its money Over the years, donor states, development banks, and aid agencies working in Lebanon have mostly thrown good money after bad. They disbursed their budgets by funding projects that were usually dead on arrival

THREAD Amid all the uncertainty and anxiety, here are things we’ve seen change for the better in Lebanon. The list, as the events themselves, is disorderly, open-ended, and subject to constant questioning. Feel free to jump in but please keep it civil! -A level of economic awareness and sophistication among the general public that predates the crisis, but now shapes a vivid, open debate

1/ Lebanon’s turmoil is spilling over into Syria is ways that are acutely felt but only partly understood. Syria’s economy relies massively on the Lebanese market: As the latter breaks down, Syria faces an escalating crisis for which no one seems prepared. 2/ Lebanon’s liquidity crisis has already hit Syria hard. Heavily sanctioned and starved for dollars, Syria needs Lebanon as a conduit for foreign currency: via remittances sent by wire, cash carried across the border, or capital stashed in Lebanese banks.