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Tom Fletcher Profile picture
Tom Fletcher
@TFletcher
Principal, Hertford College, Oxford. Ex UK Ambassador, No 10, NYU Prof. Author, The Naked Diplomat, Ten Survival Skills For A World In Flux, The Ambassador.
Dec 17, 2023 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
I’ve been listening to friends in region/policy makers.

After horror of 7th October in Israel and long weeks of retribution in Gaza, several grim realities are becoming clearer to international policy makers, and to Israelis/Palestinians who crave an end to the violence. 

1/ 1. Neither current Israeli nor Hamas leadership want two state solution that would give Israelis/Palestinians security and opportunity, and deliver regional peace deal. 

2. Private persuasion doesn’t work with Netanyahu cabinet or Hamas.
Dec 9, 2023 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
This tweet inevitably prompted a range of responses and questions. It is a raw and difficult debate. So some responses to the more polite ones …

1/12 ‘Situation different now to Israel/Hamas war of 2008/9.’

Yes, brutality of 7 Oct Hamas attacks and IDF retribution are different scale. But ways out of horror show are same: new, moderate leadership in Palestine and Israel; normalisation with region; two state solution.

2/12
Oct 10, 2023 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
In touch with so many friends in Lebanon, Israel, Palestine. A grim and terrifying moment for so many civilians, who did not choose this horror. Somehow, amid the anger and fear, they are telling me there has to be space to recognise the humans on the other side of the fence. 1/7 I hesitated to tweet, and will probably quickly regret it, as neither X nor the region seem places that encourage nuance right now.

But also because as a Brit – as allies and opponents in the region always reminded me – our history doesn’t allow us much moral high ground.

2/7
May 7, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
There will a temptation in some chancelleries to pressurize Zelensky to back down on this. If negotiation has any chance of stopping the carnage, surely try? But, grim as it is, our experience of ‘peace talks’ in Syria show there are four questions he is right to ask. 1/7 1. Will Putin’s hand be stronger or weaker in a week? A month? Does a fig leaf process help him rebuild, buy time and legitimacy with his unsteady allies, and capital and bragging rights with his steady ones? 2/7
Mar 1, 2022 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
Putin’s military escalation is underway: he is once again doubling down on brutality and violence. Sadly we have seen this before, and need to learn the lessons of our failures to respond in Syria. 1/ 1. Stop analysing him like great strategist, but opportunist thug. Not chess master but tipping over board. Hits when thinks opponents are weak/distracted. In Syria he established narrative that he was outthinking opponents. He wasn’t: he just cared less about killing people. 2/
Aug 20, 2021 • 17 tweets • 5 min read
Officials in Afghanistan, like @laurie_bristow, are doing work of immense courage and compassion. Grateful to US/UK for help with individual education cases. Each one matters and we should not underestimate tough choices to be made. Much has been said more eloquently about our moment of reckoning in Kabul.

Much to be said about the politics of the exit debacle should wait until we have as many to safety as possible.

I hesitate to add to noise. But we must move from anguish to lessons to next phase.
Mar 10, 2020 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
Important call from @MrKRudd, who was crucial in G20 response in 2008/9.

But as Trump’s mind elsewhere, G20 troika should corral it: Canada, Saudi, Italy. With 🇸🇦 focused on their November summit, 🇨🇦 could host?This month.

Agenda writes itself: global economy, #COVID2019, oil. A reminder from @GeorgeWParker
of what that G20 did for reassurance and confidence. No time to lose.

google.ae/amp/s/amp.ft.c…
May 29, 2019 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Sensing a brief hiatus between the EU election fallout and #CricketWorldCup2019. So slipping in my preview for @Independent of Trump state visit next week:

independent.co.uk/voices/trump-u… These US/UK moments nerve shredding for many involved, even when PM not in process of quitting. UK media scavenge any hint of Presidential indifference (pool spray? CD set? Did he say 'special relationship'?) or chumminess (shared prayers/toothpaste?). Can't win. 2/