Global order over the past 2000 years: 🧵

Roman Empire was limited mostly to surrounding regions of the Mediterranean region, just like Bronze Age civilizations; Romans were not a global empire at all. It collapsed in two stages. The first stage was driven by Hun invasion from the East, which then stimulated Germanic tribes. The eastern power, today represented by Russia as well as near-internal region of Germany have not been traditionally in line with the rest of Europe. The entire 20th century was devoted to wars involving Germany & Russia, showing that European pursuit of common goals can be disrupted internally. The notion of globalization, namely use of global resources distributed in Middle East, Asia, Africa and Americas, dates back to Marco Polo, who was obviously a very curious man who mapped the Silk Road and much of global shipping routes between Europe and Asia some 800 years ago.

These two modalities of transportation of goods by land and sea have been used alternatively. For instance, Ottomans took taxes over the Silk Road, but when they occasionally blocked it, Europeans expanded their naval power and shifted to sea transportation, as Ottoman revenues declined.

Europeans always push for globalization while eastern powers block it since they are not the main beneficiaries of the profits.

Why is the gold price rising?

some thoughts follow... 🧵

Let's start in year 1965 (just because it is the year I was born in), which is when DeGaulle started complaining about Americans & $. Of course it is typical for French to complain 😂, but De Gaulle followed up by sending war ships to NY harbor to retake the gold that French sent over to NYFed before Hitler invaded in WW2. Other European nations followed & soon Nixon found himself incapable to fulfilling the collateral required by Bretton-Woods 1944 while conducting Vietnam war and had to give up gold/$ connection in 1971.

1971 can be viewed in several ways, depending on whom you ask: (i) the year when $ seized to be real money, (ii) the year when US declared themselves as New Rome - the Currency Empire, or (iii) the year when FX system was born.

Of these FX system to this day is not well appreciated by most central bank managers, even though it is the clearest way by which nations get poorer or richer literally overnight. Fed has weaponized FX system against Europe, UK, Japan, China, Russia, Turkiye, among others over the past few years, influencing directly the welfare of societies.

Some may say "Fed is just a domestic organization for US, why would they do such a thing?".

Well, not everybody was this naive, even a century ago. Below is a vision of what the Fed could end up being from a book published in 1912, the year before Fed was established and WW1 started.

You decide whether the vision for Fed was attained or not? Isn't whether the Fed is hiking or easing every talking head on TV/X/utube dwells on 24/7? Powell's words and nuances are discussed for months & months... Not so little local organization, ha?