I am not an election forecaster. But I have some gut sense of what's happening. And I think there's been a realignment over the past 2 years.

And I have a formula for where we end up.

1/ Certain trends have made states more dem leaning, others less dem leaning.

College educated voters have become much more Dem leaning. Latinos less Dem leaning. Blue state voters less Dem leaning. Swing state voters more dem leaning.

2/

This is a dumb argument because people don’t understand education. What your kids gain in a public school isn’t just Math & English (they will learn that no matter where they go). Socialization, leadership skills, a magnet program are much more beneficial than an all white class.

https://twitter.com/kelseytuoc/status/1817335817515532694

The way you know racism is alive & well is because parents will send their kids to a wealthy all white school where 90% of the class has a drug problem, 10% of the class OD’s or dies in a drunk driving accident every year, and they will fight you to death that’s a good school.

People will really be like…Obama had a veto proof majority and all he did was:

End the Global Financial Crisis and end double digit unemployment, pass free Medicaid for the poorest Americans, banned insurance companies from letting you die because you cost too much money… …Ban insurance companies from refusing you because you had a chronic illness, capped profits at 15% of premium, made birth control free, stopped insurance from overcharging the sickest patients and kicking children off insurance for getting sick, appointed 2 women to SCOTUS…

The Biden cycle:

1. Bad thing happens.
2. Leftists lose their minds, say Biden has betrayed them, Trump will win.
3. Some leftists say Trump is better and Biden deserves to lose.
4. Biden has no idea who any of these people are & works on a solution.
5. Biden delivers a huge W. 6. Leftists take credit despite doing absolutely nothing except yelling and enflaming tensions.
7. Everyone rolls their eyes.

Rinse, repeat.

My friend’s mom is on life support. She‘s in her early 70’s. She has lupus. But even so she‘s an active woman. She keeps a home, takes care of her husband, is a wonderful grandmother to her beloved granddaughter. Over the holidays she insisted on making her usual big feast. 1/x My friend’s mom had COVID last month. She was vaccinated. Due to a tireless pressure campaign from my friend and her doctors, my friend’s mom relented and got the vaccine.

She was anxious, but not stupid.

However, she never got boosted.

2/x