Long-Term Investor with a Value Mindset 📈 |
Market Analyst and Commodity Trader |
15% off https://t.co/tcYsRwuSqG : https://t.co/vmheAb5XgC
Jul 14 • 16 tweets • 9 min read
15 companies to buy and hold for the next decade!
And no, this is not just a list of the Mag 7 😉
How many do you own? ✅
🧵
1/ $BN | Brookfield Corporation 🇨🇦
Brookfield Corporation is a global alternative asset manager. They invest in various sectors including real estate, infrastructure, renewable power, private equity, and credit.
They have shown incredible performance over the last decades. They have delivered 18% annual returns for the last 20 years. Management thinks they can continue this trajectory and double in size over the next 5 years.
They have a very experienced management team and their strategic positioning allows them to capitalize on major global trends such as energy transition, urbanization, and the growth of digital infrastructure.
Simply put: do you think you can invest your money better than they do? Most of us can't. So why not put your money in $BN?2/ ASML 🇳🇱
ASML is the Dutch semiconductor giant most of us know by now. They design and produce lithography machines. Their biggest consumers are: $TSM, $INTC and Samsung.
To me, this one of the easiest buy and holds in the market right now, because of their highly monopolistic position and AI tailwinds that will benefit them in the upcoming years.
We will need these machines for all our electronic devises, whether it's now or in 2030. Without the machines, we simply cannot make the chips/semiconductors needed to progress.
Do not focus on short-term news or quarterly setbacks with ASML. ASML is playing the long game, and so should you.
Jul 11 • 13 tweets • 9 min read
Here are my 12 favorite NON-US companies! You should be watching these!
🧵
1/ $NBIS
Nebius is highly specialized in AI-centric cloud infrastructure and services. When you buy Nebius, you buy a stake in:
✅Nebius core: AI-centered cloud platform + data centers
✅Avride: Autonomous driving and delivery robots
✅Clickhouse: open-sourced, column-oriented SQL database management system
✅TripleTen: Online education platform that provides coding bootcamps
✅Toloka: Crowdsourcing platform that provides human-annotated data for training and evaluating AI models
All of these together make them a very strong AI play, and that's why they are up over 100% in the last year.
Valuation
It's hard to properly value Nebius now as they are still early in their scaling phase, but if I do a sum of parts analysis I get a fair value of $93.43 per share. All will depend on their execution in the upcoming years. So far, so good.2/ $DLO
$DLO provides payment solutions for some of the world’s largest companies like $AZMN, $UBER, $MSFT $SHOP and $GOOGL. I like to refer to them as the mini- $ADYEN, with a specialization in and a focus on emerging markets.
Sentiment: Attractively valued. $DLO is one of my latest buys. I think this company is mispriced and deserves to trade at a lot higher valuation. It's priced like a dying dividend company while still growing 25%+ CAGR.
Jul 9 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
I found EIGHT companies where the stock price is severely lagging its fundamentals.
All of them are out of favor right now. Most of them unloved. 💔
A momentum shift could lead to significant upside.
The question is, do you believe in their stories?
🧵
1/ 3/ $DLO | DLocal
Since IPO
Revenue: +1307%
EPS: +787%
Stock price: -65%
$DLO is one of my favorite companies right now, and I've recently taken a position.
The hold a strong position in the emerging market payment solutions sector, and have been increasing their TPV incredibly fast.
Can they keep their take rate under control and will they fight of their many competitors? If so, this company looks really undervalued and provides a great risk/reward.
Hiring Pedro Arnt certainly was the right thing to do, as I think he is the right man to keep this ship straight and make the story happen, just as he did at $MELI.2/ $NVO
Since Q1-2022
Revenue: + 112%
EPS: +98.2%
Stock price: +25.86%
We all know what's happening here: $LLY came to join the party and execution has not been great. Therefore, they are losing market share.
Novo Nordisk is however taking matters into their own hands, and they started by firing their CEO.
Their steady and fast growth, strong pipeline the tailwind from the growing obesity sector still provide significant upside potential.
The two main questions are: can they keep up with $LLY and will the new CEO turn things around?
Jun 26 • 12 tweets • 6 min read
My $DLO thesis 🧵
I recently opened a position in $DLO. Here is why!
1/ What does $DLO do?
$DLO is like a mini- $ADYEN, but specifically aimed at emerging markets.
They provide payment solutions for some of the world’s largest companies like $AZMN, $UBER, $MSFT $SHOP and $GOOGL (and many more)
They help these companies navigate the difficult landscape of payment processing in emerging markets. They aim specially at: Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. They currently operate in 43 countries.2/ One-stop Shop
$DLO acts as a one-stop-shop. The below picture perfectly captures how that works.
They basically connect a huge scala of payment methods through one API. They make all these different payment methods, in all of the countries they operate in, easily accessible to their clients.
Jun 16 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
1/ Is $EVO , a buy now?
The stock price went flying today (up 8.5%), after CEO Martin Carlesund bought €6M worth of shares.
Is this the catalyst we've all been waiting for, after the disastrous earnings from last quarter?
Here are my thoughts and let me know yours in the comments!
🧵2/ Sign of confidence
Insiders buying back shares is about the biggest sign of confidence an investor can get. And when the CEO does it? It means even more.
And that's exactly what happened last Friday. CEO Martin Carlesund bought €6M worth of shares, which is about twice his yearly salary.
There is no reason for him to buy back shares now, if he thinks next quarters earnings will be terrible. If anyone knows what's up, it's him.
Jun 6 • 11 tweets • 7 min read
These 10 companies are perfectly set-up to benefit from the upcoming AI-boom!🤖
How many of these do you own? 🧵
1/ $NBIS Nebius
Nebius is one of my highest conviction plays right now. To meet all the AI-compute, we're gonna need a shitload of computing power. And that's were Nebius comes in.
Nebius provides the underlying cloud computing power and specialized infrastructure that AI developers and companies need to create, train, and run advanced AI models and applications.
They're sitting on $1.5B in cash, raised $1B through convertiable bonds yesterday and they have another $1.8B in ClickHouse equity. And on top of that, their self-driving unit, Avride, is racking up autonomous miles at a rate second only to Waymo.
If they continue this growth, and live up to their expectations, $NBIS could be a 5X or 10X within a relatively short timeframe.2/ $CRWV Coreweave
I see quite a few people on X, including myself, debating whether to invest in Coreweave or $NBIS.
Don't worry, there is a place for both!
CoreWeave is a specialized cloud provider that has carved out a niche by focusing on providing the raw power needed for the most demanding computing tasks in the modern digital world.
CoreWeave's main service is providing access to a massive number of high-performance Graphics Processing Units (GPUs). In essence, CoreWeave positions itself as a specialized, high-performance alternative to traditional general-purpose cloud providers, like AWS, Azure, Google Cloud.
$CRWV has had a massive run-up already after it's IPO, up over 200%. Investors clearly see the potential.
For now, I see more potential in $NBIS, but $CRWV could be a great long-term AI play. If you can handle the volatility that is.
May 30 • 20 tweets • 10 min read
$ASML, the strongest monopoly in the market.
They face zero competition, have high margins and yet they are still very much underappreciated.
Here is my full thesis 👇
🧵
1/ The Company 🇳🇱
$ASML is THE leading manufacturer of lithography machines for the semiconductor industry.
They are headquartered in the Netherlands and have just over 44.000 employees. They continue expanding their campus and manufacturing facilities to meet future demand. The whole Eindhoven region in the Netherlands thrives on ASML.
Of course they have different sites all over the world as well (US/Germany/Taiwan), where they do R&D, manufacturing and refurbishing.2/ $ASML's Core business
ASML develops and produces lithography machines that use light to print incredibly intricate patterns onto silicon wafers. These patterns form the billions of transistors and connections that make up a microchip.
These machines are used by the likes of $TSM, $INTC and Samsung to produce their highly advanced semiconductors.
The two main types of machines ASML produces are: 1. DUV (Deep Ultraviolet): these systems use DUV light (e.g., 193 nm wavelength) and are widely used for mass manufacturing of many types of logic and memory chips.
2. EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet): This is ASML's flagship and most advanced technology. EUV systems use much shorter wavelength light (13.5 nm) to create the smallest and most complex features on cutting-edge chips.
Just a sidenote: the EUV machines are banned from export to China, the DUV machines are subject to restrictions, but can still be exported
May 28 • 12 tweets • 7 min read
The US Healthcare system is far from perfectly balanced. And that's where $OSCR comes in!
Oscar Health is a fast growing health insurance company, disrupting the US medial insurance industry.
Here is my $OSCR thesis:
🧵
1/ The company
US hospitals and doctors are among the best in the world. However, they are incredibly expensive and therefore not available to a lot of Americans.
$OSCR's mission is to ''fix'' this incredibly broken system, and make good healthcare available for everyone in the US.
They do this through an app and digital tools to offer and manage health plans for individuals and small businesses.
Therefor they've build their own health insurance platform.2. The platform
$OSCR built a DTC (direct-to-consumer) health insure platform.
This platform is easily accessible through their mobile app.
The app works as the primary interface through which they deliver on their promises of user-centricity, transparency, and cost efficiency.
The app is aimed at making healthcare more simple.
They do this by offering 24/7 virtual care, personalized health management (with data and AI), and a dedicated "concierge" (which is a sort of personal nurse) support team.
May 13 • 15 tweets • 8 min read
Nebius is up 70% this month, but what the hell does $NBIS actually do?
I'll explain (short and simple) in this thread:
🧵
1/ What does Nebius do?
Imagine you want to build something really complex with artificial intelligence. Maybe like an AI that can write stories, create art, or help scientists discover new medicines. You need a shit-ton of computing power to realize this, WAY more than your average computer can provide.
Nebius provides that super-powered computing infrastructure, and they design it specifically for AI. And that's just their core business. There's a lot more!
Do you like a company that grew their revenue at 466% YoY? Keep reading!2/ Yandex Origin
They were once part of a larger tech company called Yandex, but they are now headquartered as an independent company in the Netherlands. 🇳🇱
While Nebius has historical ties to Russia through its Yandex origins and some of its leadership's roles, they have taken legal, structural, and operational steps to sever ties with Russia.
They did however take a lot of the knowledge and experience from Yandex with them. So even though this is a fairly ''new'' company, they have a lot more experience than you might think at first glance.
May 13 • 10 tweets • 7 min read
10 high-quality, capital-light companies, with HUGE moats
🧵1/ $FICO
FICO is mostly recognized for its credit scoring business, with the FICO Score being the leading credit risk metric in the U.S.
FICO also operates a software division, offering analytics platforms for fraud detection, marketing, customer management, and debt recovery.
FICO's competitive advantage is built on strong brand recognition, network effects, and high switching costs.
▶️ Currently trading at a forward P/E of ~64
▶️ 80% gross margin, with a 44% operating margin
▶️ 8,5% revenue growth (10-year CAGR)
▶️ 36.7% ROIC!!!
▶️ Significant TAM driven by increasing demand for data-driven decision-making and risk management solutions across various industries
This is a great business that I'd really love to own. But usually it's quite expensive, so I am going to wait for a better entry. Great stock to buy when the overall market dips.2/ $SPGI
$SPGI /S&P Global is mostly known for their rating division. They provide credit ratings and research for governments and corporations.
They also have a ''Market Intelligence Division'' that offers data, analytics, and software solutions to institutional investors, corporations, and financial institutions
▶️Currently trading at a forward P/E of ~29
▶️ All business segments posted revenue growth in the latest quarter
▶️Gross profit margin of 69%
▶️ Operating margin around the 40% level
▶️ Massive TAM as financial markets digitize and demand for data/analytics accelerates; their global mobility division will be spun off for sharper focus
▶️ Dividend yield 0.8%
Proud shareholder of this one, and it seems reasonably priced currently as well!
May 8 • 10 tweets • 9 min read
10 Undervalued High Quality Companies You Can Buy Right Now and Hold Forever!
🧵How many do you own?
1/ $ASML
What does $ASML do?
ASML develops complex machines used in the production of microchips, which power everything from smartphones to data centers.
Their machines are used in a process called photolithography, where patterns of circuits are printed onto silicon wafers using light. ASML is especially known for its cutting-edge EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography systems, which use extremely short wavelengths of light to create the tiny, detailed structures required for the most advanced chips.
Growth
Rev Growth 5 yr CAGR: 20.6%
Rev Growth 10 yr CAGR: 17.5%
EPS Growth 10 yr CAGR: 19.5%
ROIC: 23.6
Gross Margin: 52%
Operating Margin: 33.8%
Why is ASML a Buy?
ASML arguably has the highest moat of any company in the world. They are currently facing some headwinds, but the overall trend looks very promising. ASML is perfectly set up to benefit from the AI boom, because ASML is the only company that produces the machines to make the chips that are used in many of the AI-related products. Valuation is not cheap, but you'll always pay a premium for a high quality company like this. Down 40% from it's all time high currently.2/ $HIMS
What does $HIMS do?
Hims & Hers is a fast-growing telehealth company that makes it easy for people to access treatments for things like mental health, hair loss, sexual wellness, and weight loss, all from their phones.
Recently, the company rose on after partnering with Novo Nordisk to offer a popular weight-loss drug, and its subscriber base and revenue have jumped sharply. Q1 earnings were very good as well, and the price rose almost 20% after the earnings release.
Why is HIMS a Buy?
Hims has seen absolutely stellar revenue growth. They have a huge TAM still to explore. Partnering with $NVO was a smart move and it took away many doubts that investors had regarding the obesity segment. Even after the recent price increase HIMS is still down almost 30% from it's all-time high. Nice long-term hold, with a bit more risk and volatility.
Apr 28 • 11 tweets • 6 min read
$ASML - arguably the most important company in the world - is now on sale.
Imagine being able to buy this juggernaut of a company at a fat discount!
Here is why! 🧵 (1) What does $ASML actually do?
ASML is a dominant monopolistic company in the lithography machine sector. They have no competitors and are perfectly set up to dominate in the semiconductor sector.
It's a common misconception that they are the ones making chips. That's not the case. They design and manufacture the lithography machines that are an essential component in the chip manufacturing.
These machines are extremely expensive, ranging from $50M for the older versions, to $350M for their HIGH-NA EUV machines.
Apr 1 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
1/ $EVO $EVVTY 🚨PLAYER DATA UPDATE🚨
In this monthly update on $EVO player data you can find:
- YoY comparison
- YoY numbers
- Comparison to competitors
- Average amount of players per month
- Segment distribution
- Total marketshare
- Comments and remarks
Enjoy! Let me know what you think!
2/ $EVO $EVVTY YoY Numbers
Player numbers continue to grow. March was a good month for Evolution, also when taking seasonal effects into account.
Growth should be coming out of South-America as US and China numbers don't seem amazing currently.