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Taniel Profile picture
Taniel
@Taniel
Daniel Nichanian. Editor-in-chief and founder of @BoltsMag. (Follow us!) Local politics & elections, criminal justice, voting rights, and drag race.
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Sep 5 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
JUST IN: France has a new Prime Minister.

Macron chose Michel Barnier, a conservative politician from the LR party.

This makes explicit the long-tacit alliance between Macronists + conservatives. *And* Macron is choosing someone he thinks the far-right (RN) won't bring down. Step-back: Left coalition (NFP) won most seats on July 7 (roughly 190). But a priority for Macron was to avoid NFP governing.

Barnier's LR (right) have roughly 40 seats. Macronists only have roughly 170. Even combined, that's far from the majority of 277.

RN has 140.
Aug 30 • 14 tweets • 6 min read
This month was maybe the best stretch of content since we launched @boltsmag 2 years ago.

I'm really proud of all of these stories, & how they're bringing so many different facets of local politics, and their high stakes on criminal justice & voting rights, to life! ↓ Image 1. Arizona voters face major choices in November, on whether election deniers will take over some of the most important election offices in the state — nay, in the country.

@alex_burness laid it all out: boltsmag.org/maricopa-count…
Aug 29 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
New Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls (RVs here):

Wisconsin: Harris 52/44
Pennsylvania: Harris 51/47
Nevada: Harris 49/45
Michigan: Harris 49/46
[that's 270+]
Georgia: Harris 49/47
North Carolina: Harris 49/47
Arizona: 48/48 The article only gives the margins among likely voters, take or remove one point depending on the state, but not the numbers in an easy way. (link via @JoshuaGreen) bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Aug 27 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Political situation in France is fairly jaw-dropping.

1. Elections were 7 weeks ago, & in France transition is quick. But still no new government, & it's not just bc there's no solution: Macron stalled, then announced a bizarre "Olympic truce," & is now stalling again. 2. The PM + Cabinet resigned promptly... but remain in office. There's something called "regime of ordinary affairs" in France, where a resigning Cabinet just does routine stuff. But this has been longest such regime ever in France. & resigned Cabinet working on next budget.
Aug 25 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
Things remain stalled in France since July 7th elections.

Those saw Macron's party lose roughly 100 seats, & so any semblance of majority or plurality. And yet his outgoing cabinet remains in office despite ostensibly resigning in July.

But things moving more quickly now. ⬇️ No bloc or coalition got ANYTHING near a majority (277). An unprecedented situation in this institutional regime.

Left coalition (NFP), you'll recall, won most seats on July 7—around 190.

Macronists ≈170. Far-right ≈ 140. Conservatives ≈40.
Aug 13 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
BFD: Arizona officials announce that an abortion rights measure, the Arizona Abortion Acess Act, *will* be on the November ballot.

It would enshrine abortion rights in the constitution.

If you care about this measure—here are 3 more related AZ elections you must know about. ⬇️ 1️⃣ Remember when the Arizona Supreme Court revived a 19th century abortion ban earlier this year?

Two of the justices who participated in that decision are up for retention this fall.

boltsmag.org/your-state-by-…
Aug 7 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
There was a big election night yesterday with many interesting results—but a wild amount has happened this week, so I can't blame you if you've missed them.

So let me walk you through them with a quick thread: ⬇️ 1️⃣ in Kansas, a Dem lawmaker was ousted in the Dem primary after providing the GOP the decisive vote on a anti-trans bill, and a lot else.

more in my thread:
Aug 7 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
RESULT: Marvin Robinson, a Dem state Rep. in Kansas, was just *ousted* by voters in his Dem primary.

Who is Robinson? He provided Kansas Republicans the decisive vote to override the Dem governor's veto, and pass an anti-trans bill into law. Robinson also voted for abortion restrictions & against Medicaid expansion.

The winner is Wanda Brownlee Paige, a retired teacher.

She said: "You lied to us. You told us you were a Democrat." kansascity.com/news/politics-…
Jul 30 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Today is Arizona’s primary! And it really is far-right fest.

Arpaio, Lake, Masters, and many more, are bidding for comebacks.

Here are some of the top primaries you should be watching. ⬇️ 1. The senate race! Two years after she lost the governor’s race and refused to concede, Kari Lake wants to replace Sinema. Her opponent is Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, also known for fanning unfounded conspiracies and nativism. ()boltsmag.org/arizona-sherif…
Jul 20 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
France's hyper-fragmented Assembly has been voting all day for its new leadership, & finished choosing its 'secretaries' at 4-5am. I'm not quite sure how but Left coalition won 10 of the 12 final spots, giving it an out-of-nowhere majority in chamber's overall leadership council. Since France entered its latest constitutional structure in 1958, nothing like what's unfolding now has ever happened—there's never been a situation where a bloc hasn't effectively controlled proceedings (even in rare hung parliaments). So IMO no one really knows what's going on.
Jul 7 • 44 tweets • 14 min read
JUST IN: Polls closed in France. Exit polls show surprise:

—Left coalition (New Popular Front) projected first. (!)
—Far-right (RN) has lost its bid to take power. Anti-RN front appears to have worked very well.
—No bloc close to majority.

Follow this 🧵 for results and more: Image 2nd leading pollster projects a similar result—if anything a higher range for the Left coalition.

This wld be a much stronger result than expected for the Macron bloc as well. Still, a big drop for them from outgoing Assembly (250, enough for governing with plurality). Image
Jul 7 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
France is holding its parliamentary elections today.

Clear stakes: Will far-right end up governing France?

And if it fails, what possible coalition will end up governing given fragmentation?

You can follow me for results starting at 2pm ET; but a quick context 🧵: Let’s start with: In France, president runs the show… as long as their party controls the Assembly. If presidential party loses that control, the president has few domestic powers—no veto, for instance. This isn’t a US-style split government. That’s why stakes today so high.
Jul 5 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Details reported in piece for those who can’t read it

—Macron’s team mostly shrugged off results on Sunday. They started celebrating a birthday as returned still coming in
—He didn’t bother watching as Prime Minister, Attal, gave forceful speech calling to block far-right.
(1/?) —Attal began calling Macronist candidate who came in 3rd but made runoff, asking them to drop out to consolidate vs far-right.

—Attal surprised to realize Macron was calling some in parallel, asking them to NOT drop out. This would risk RN wins.

(We have other confirmation:)
Jun 30 • 48 tweets • 14 min read
JUST IN: Polls closed in first round of France elections. Two main French TV estimates (combines early results & exit poll) show strong far-right.

Far-right bloc: ≈34%
Left bloc: ≈28-29%
Macron bloc: ≈20-22%

What does this mean? What'll happen? Follow this thread ⬇️
Image
Image Both estimates project that far-right will dominate the upcoming National Assembly — falling short so far of absolute majority, but not unattainable next week.

Left bloc projected 2nd. Macron's bloc, to collapse < 100 seats.

NOTE: This is projections of what'd happen NEXT WEEK.
Image
Image
Jun 9 • 60 tweets • 15 min read
‼️ Shock news : French President Emmanuel Macron just announced he was dissolving the country's National Assembly.

He's calling national elections, which'll decide who'll run the country.

The elections were supposed to be in 2027. Instead, they'll be in early July (!!!). The runoff of these parliamentary elections will be on July 7th... so 3 days after the UK elections! An extremely short campaign.

More context:

#1: This comes an hour after disastrous election results for Macron in the EU elections. (The far-right got 31% and Macron at 15%.)
May 25 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
bolts just covered 2 big criminal justice reforms that became law over last week.

let's jump in:

1️⃣ Minnesota ended prison gerrymandering. This is the practice of counting incarcerated people where the prison is located, which skews political power. boltsmag.org/minnesota-ends… 2️⃣ Oklahoma passed a bill that gives incarcerated survivors of domestic violence a new shot at freedom, when the crime they were convicted for stemmed from their abuse.

Law went thru twists and turns as lawmakers (in this GOP-run state) navigated a veto: boltsmag.org/oklahoma-survi…
May 20 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Three Glenn Youngkin stories in @boltsmag that capture how much a governor matters. (And who he is.)

1/ He ended all automatic rights restoration in Virginia. VA's default now is permanent loss of voting rights, one of single harshest systems in nation. boltsmag.org/virginia-gover… 2/ He recently vetoed a bill that would have barred prosecutors from pressuring defendants to waive away their constitutional rights... for many years! boltsmag.org/fourth-amendme…
Apr 9 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Don't sleep on this: *2* state justices who just voted to make all abortion illegal in Arizona are on the ballot this year.

They're each up for retention, as I had detailed here last week: boltsmag.org/your-state-by-… I skipped the headline story here assuming you've seen it elsewhere, but if not: the Arizona supreme court just declared abortion illegal. 12news.com/article/news/p…
Apr 4 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
A thread about a messed up situation in Mississippi.

It's on how state officials have voided direct democracy thru an absurd excuse, and how they keep refusing to yield that power back to people. The state constitution gives people the right to ballot initiatives.

It outlines how they should do so, & how they should collect signatures in each of MS's five congressional districts.

The language was written into the constitution in 1992.
Mar 5 • 17 tweets • 5 min read
Tomorrow is extraordinary busy election day... and you may have missed critical battles.

So here's a thread with the 15 races I'll watch most closely, across 4 states. It has some of everything: school boards, local politics, DAs, voting rights...

↓ 1️⃣ Let's start with the Arkansas supreme court races.

Because they're so odd. 2 seats, 4 sitting justices running for them, none of which are their current occupants, plus two outsiders. Depending on the results, the big winner may be Huckabee Sanders.

boltsmag.org/arkansas-supre…
Feb 10 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
not all about the Santos seat and Trump/Biden: there are a ton of critical elections coming up literally in coming weeks.

here are just four you should know about. 1. the former sheriff of Los Angeles, ousted after protecting police abuse, is trying a comeback in 3 weeks: boltsmag.org/los-angeles-co…