Our updated Tesla model is now out! Autonomous driving likely will be one of the most life-changing AI unlocks in history, and quite meaningful for Tesla shareholders: ark-invest.com/articles/valua…
We conservatively assumed that Tesla does not sell Optimus externally in our model, and that Optimus manufacturing savings modestly impact Tesla’s costs in single digit percentages over the next five years.

1/ Our latest Tesla price target is out! $2,000 per share in 2027. Check it out! ark-invest.com/articles/arks-… Similar to last year, we believe autonomy will represent a significant portion of Tesla’s future enterprise value. 2/ The more Teslas on the road that are autonomy-capable, the better, because each can become a recurring revenue generating robotaxi, a business which we think will generate much more cash flow than electric vehicle sales alone.

1/ Drone delivery is having a moment. In 2015, I estimated that Amazon could deliver a package in less than 30 minutes for <$1. ark-invest.com/articles/analy… 2/ Since then, I've updated that work and estimated the market potential of both meal and parcel delivery. All in all, I think this could be a $1-2T market.

At Tesla's Investor Day, for the first time we saw the accident rate per million miles driven in FSD. Previously the Tesla Safety Report included only Autopilot statistics. 🧵1/10 1 accident per 3.2M FSD miles. Looks better than the national average, right? However, I'd argue the comparison is not 🍎to🍎 as FSD worked only on surface streets until v11.3. Also, how does this compare to a manually driven Tesla? Let's compare across surface streets only. 2/10

If you didn't catch ARK's #BIS2022 summit yesterday, here's some highlights from my latest autonomous technology research: In our original work, we estimated that an autonomous ride-hail service could be priced as low as $0.25 per mile for consumers, while still leaving room for operator profits.

1/ Waymo is on the cusp of making history with a fully commercial robotaxi launch. It must be VERY confident in fully driverless rides to make this push. blog.waymo.com/2020/10/waymo-… 2/ In the past 5 years we've seen a handful of automakers promise a 2020 launch and fail to come through. Today, many are not even close. group1nissan.co.za/blog/nissan-ne…

1/ Here's why we think Tesla and every other automaker should pursue autonomous driving - the market likely will be worth much more than the auto market today. We estimate autonomous ridehailing will be worth $9T, or more than today's energy sector, in the next ten years.

https://twitter.com/ARKInvest/status/1226929445061177345

2/ Why? Because we think autonomous rides will be much cheaper than today's taxis and personal cars. At scale, they could price at $0.25/mile. This is a big deal. The price of personal transport hasn't changed in over 100 years. These economics can drive widespread adoption.