Before launching the war, Trump told the Iranian people: “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take.”

That sentence—breezy, belligerent, untethered from reality—is the best summary of how this conflict began.

5 things he didn’t think through: 🧵 1. What if the regime doesn’t fall?

Trump wanted the Iranian people to do his dirty work. They didn’t.

The regime survived Khamenei’s assassination, rallied nationalist sentiment, and machine-gunned protesters in the streets.

Now Trump can’t find anyone to talk to. The strikes killed pragmatist leaders who might have done a deal.

It may be worth saying something out loud here.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is obviously the greatest international security crisis since 9/11.

And, at this point, it’s got to be said that Joe Biden and his team have handled it masterfully. 1/ From forging (mostly behind the scenes) a united NATO diplomatic front against Moscow, one that has not cracked; 

to the wrecking of the Russian economy, a process still in its early stages, which includes supporting European efforts to find alternative sources of energy; 2/