This is a long thread: it summarizes an even longer set of interview (8 and a half hours!) that @lexfridman conducted with the founders and leaders of Neuralink, and with Neuralinks first patient, the indomitable Noland Arbaugh.

This remarkable set of interviews about the incredible achievement by Neuralink and Noland is worth every minute of a day long watch. My purpose in summarizing the interviews in this thread is to give the reader a map of the interviews so that they can understand where they are on the journey, and as a convenient record of the key points made; I hope it whets the reader's appetite to watch: I guarantee it will inspire and teach. Part 1: A Conversation with Elon Musk, Co-Founder of Neuralink

Introduction

Elon needs no introduction, but it is interesting how he relates his vision for Neuralink to his vision for humanity, and how his enterprises all fit into the plan. As we go on with not only his interview, but with the others we get a sense of just how deep his involvement is with the Neuralink vision, technology, product and business model.

Musk and Fridman discuss the caffeine they’re drinking, leading to a light-hearted conversation about nitrogen in drinks.

Fridman congratulates Musk on successfully implanting a Neuralink device in a human, marking a historic milestone.

Musk shares the progress of the second implant and discusses the future scaling of human participants depending on regulatory approvals.

Telepathy
The conversation delves into the potential of Neuralink to enhance communication speeds between humans and machines.

Musk envisions a future where the communication bandwidth could reach a level where communication happens faster than typing or speaking, potentially achieving telepathic-like interactions.

Power of the Human Mind
Fridman and Musk explore the role of the human mind, particularly the limbic system, in guiding human actions and desires.

Musk explains that the human cortex, while advanced, largely serves the primitive limbic system, leading to extensive computational efforts for basic human desires like reproduction.

Musk compares human brain function to a computer with a tertiary compute layer (technology like smartphones), suggesting that humans are already cyborgs to some extent.

Future of Neuralink
The conversation shifts to the dual focus of Neuralink on medical and non-medical applications.

Musk emphasizes that the initial focus is on treating neurological issues, such as spinal cord damage, blindness, and other neuron-related conditions.

Neuralink aims to restore basic functions first, with the potential for augmentation, eventually surpassing normal human capabilities.

Ayahuasca
Lex Fridman shares his personal experience with ayahuasca, a hallucinogenic brew, leading to a discussion about the human perception and experience.

Musk acknowledges the potential for Neuralink to replicate such experiences by manipulating brain signals, suggesting the brain's electrical signals govern all human experiences.

Merging with AI
Fridman and Musk discuss the potential of Neuralink in AI safety, emphasizing the importance of increasing the bandwidth of human-computer communication to align human will with AI.

Musk believes that enhancing human output capabilities could help in a world dominated by AGIs (Artificial General Intelligences).

They speculate on a future where hundreds of millions of people could have Neuralink implants, offering superhuman abilities and memory retention.

xAI
The discussion moves to Musk's new AI venture, xAI, and the challenges of building the most powerful AI systems.

Musk compares AI development to a Formula 1 race, where both the car (compute power) and the driver (human talent) are critical.

He mentions the importance of unique data access, citing Tesla's real-time video data from millions of cars and the potential of Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot, as a significant source of real-world data.

Optimus
The conversation focuses on Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, and the challenges of mass-producing humanoid robots.

Musk explains the complexity of designing the robot's hand, which requires extensive engineering to replicate the dexterity of human hands.

The discussion highlights the significant engineering effort required to create a robot that can perform tasks as well as a human.

Elon's Approach to Problem-Solving
Musk shares his problem-solving philosophy, emphasizing the importance of questioning requirements, deleting unnecessary steps, simplifying, optimizing, and automating processes.

He explains that the process often involves overcorrecting by deleting more than necessary and then adding back what is essential, which is crucial for innovation and efficiency.

History and Geopolitics
Musk discusses his endorsement of Donald Trump following an assassination attempt, citing Trump's courage and strong leadership qualities.

He reflects on the role of politicians in steering humanity, comparing them to captains navigating the tides of history.

Musk emphasizes the importance of reducing government spending and maintaining a secure border for the prosperity of the nation.

Lessons of History
The conversation concludes with a discussion on the importance of technological innovation in shaping civilizations.

Musk and Fridman discuss the history of writing, starting with the ancient Sumerians, and its role in the development of civilization.

Musk underscores the need for governments to support technological advancements rather than hinder them, as innovation is key to the rise and success of empires.

Introduction to the Next Tesla Revolution

What are the revolutionary aspects of the Cybertruck? Stainless-Steel exoskeleton? The unexpected design language? 4680 V2 Batteries? Massive front and rear castings? Massive windscreen wiper?

One or another of these may make the cut. But I think history will choose a different, and rather surprising one.

Cybertruck may be memorialized as the vehicle that began the revolution that ended the worldwide, 70-year reign of the 12-volt electrical system in over-the-road vehicles, and the 100-plus year long reign of the lead-acid battery. This is a very big deal, one that will ultimately have a profound effect on the design, and even on the functionality, of all future trucks and autos, and ushers us into the true digital age of transport.

For the Tesla investor, it may initiate another major milestone: the launch of Tesla’s role as a key supplier of intellectual property to a rejuvenated Auto industry.

This important finding is just another breadcrumb trail I found in the 2023 Investor Day Presentation. Since then, statements by Elon, and the 171-slide deck, the recording of the presentation of the deck on investor day, and the accompanying Master Plan Part 3 document are together an amazing source of information. It’s surprising how little they have been studied, even by Tesla cognoscenti.

For readability, I have divided this discussion into multiple parts:

This, the intro
Part 1: A (brief) history of the Auto battery (Skip this part if you wish, but I found it fascinating, and it informs the future.)
Part 2: The advantages of the 48 Volt battery, and Tesla’s role in its adoption
Part 3: The Tesla revolution in vehicle E/E (electrical/electronic) architecture
Part 4: Tesla supporting a digital auto revolution (and establish a new stream of income) Part 1: A (brief) history of the Auto battery. (Skip this part if you wish, but I found it fascinating, and it informs the future.)

The invention of the battery may go back to ancient times, but in modernity the story picks up with experiments being done in the 18thcentury, and more importantly in 1859, when Gaston Plante’ of France created the first crude rechargeable battery using lead-acid chemistry. From there we jump to 1912 when this type of battery became central to the evolution of the automobile.

That was the year that Henry Leland, a brilliant engineer, made a critical decision. Leland was CEO of Cadillac, which he had founded in 1902 on wreckage of Henry Ford’s first, failed auto venture, and had sold to GM in 1909 for $4.5m (approximately $135m in today’s value). When a Cadillac engineer was hit in the head and killed by a starting crank propelled by an engine backfire, Leland drove his chief engineer, Charles Kettering, to design an electric starter motor. Thus in 1912, with the advent of the Cadillac and its electric starter, was born the need for a rechargeable battery for the automobile, and the evolving lead-acid battery fulfilled this need.

By the mid-teens of the 20th Century most vehicles were equipped with starter motors, making the lead-acid battery a basic component of the automobile. In 1920 the Hudson Car Co. was the first to adopt the new Battery Council International (BCI) standard for battery specification (6-volt) and size. The BCI standard has evolved significantly but is still the battery industry standards-body today.

Until the mid-1950s, cars used 6-volt lead-acid batteries, which proved quite sufficient, considering the starter was initially the only electrical device on the vehicle. Soon enough electric lights, and then electric horns were added. Over time the higher compression engines – requiring more powerful starter motors – and larger suites of electrical equipment led to a transition to 12-volt systems, so that by 1960 12V became the standard which remains in force today, 60+ years later.

12 Volt Lead-acid technology has also advanced through several generations to the point that the batteries are highly reliable, vibration resistant, sealed and spill free, requiring minimal maintenance, all of which features address many of the shortcomings of earlier 12-volt batteries. 12-volt auto systems have evolved over 60 years to power almost every aspect of the modern ICE vehicle.

General David Sacks’ (@DavidSacks) recent claim on the All-in Pod that Ukraine has “lost the war” led me to examine his claim. Here are the facts I have uncovered, leading me to a very different conclusion (Warning: long 🧵) War is generally about the gain of territory. On this count, given their success in the first two weeks of the war, the subsequent months have been disastrous for Russia. A reasonable judgement on the matter of territorial gain is that neither side can yet claim a “win”.

1. So. Buybacks. Some final words. 🧵 2. Tesla outlined its capital expenditure plans for us in their 3/1 Investor Day Presentation (slide 171). It sets up 4 priority categories of Capital Allocation, of which Share Buybacks/Dividends is the 4th. Ahead of it is 1. Daily Operations, 2. Growth and 3. Opportunities .../

Yesterday Nehal Trivedi and I appeared on the @RandyWKirk1 channel to talk about the prospects for a Tesla Gigafactory in India. I discuss the slides we presented on that subject in this 🧵 Nehal is eminently qualified to speak on the subject, born and raised in Gujarat, the province of India's powerhouse Prime Minister, Narenrda Modi. He received his undergrad engineering degree in India, and his graduate degree in US, where he has many years experience.

Supercharging. Is it profitable? What will the Ford deal impact be? TL:DR: A small, profitable, and rapidly growing corner of the Tesla empire that has a significant future. The Ford deal gives us a clue to the huge potential of this business.🧵 Our forecast of Supercharging profit of $648m in ‘23 doesn’t much move the profit needle, but has the hallmarks of a Tesla business:
· Strategic: key mission enabler
· Incredible capital efficiency
· Standalone profitability
· Huge upside potential
· Industry leader (naturally!)

@garyblack00 pushes back on @farzyness forecast of Tesla reaching 20m auto deliveries by 2030. Gary’s forecast is half that. He may be correct, but I did some research, and here are my findings. A long🧵but a few nice diagrams on the way!

https://twitter.com/farzyness/status/1640385454951235584

Stand by. Twitter ate my thread again!!! I am going to retweet it...in stages...and put and end marker when its done! Damn...@elonmusk let's get this fixed.

No-one does valuation analysis better than @aswathDomodaran. Both modest and learned, he presents values companies with great clarity, providing detailed spreadsheets that allow readers to plug in their own assumptions. This🧵critiques his Tesla Valuation: bit.ly/3leOUub I was turned on to @aswathDomodaran by @ICannot_Enough. He did an excellent video critiquing this latest valuation, pointing out that Professor Damodaran omitted, inter alia, the Tesla energy business from his analysis. The video can be found at bit.ly/3jBrmQ0

This is a long 🧵TL/DR: it replaces my usual projection format for Q4 (which is summarized in the next tweet). However, it does contains my personal analysis as to why $TSLA is better poised today than any other time in its history. (Not investment advice!) I am anticipating Tesla Q4 earnings of $1.17 for Q4, vs consensus of $1.13. At current SP of around $140, that is a surprisingly low TTM 35. (Q4 2021 was 148!) Even more stark, the Fwd. 12 Month P/E ratio has collapsed from around 90 in early 2021 to around 26 now.

In 2020 Tesla delivered 353 cars short of the 500,000 goal they had set for themselves in 2014, a goal considered impossible by critics and analysts alike. With this milestone behind them, they set themselves a new, and equally challenging goal 🧵 January ‘21 Tesla guidance: “over a multi-year horizon, we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries. In some years we may grow faster…The rate…will depend on our equipment capacity, operational efficiency and capacity and stability of the supply chain.”

Elon Musk is known for seemingly outlandish goals he sets. However, not many investors appreciate the quality of guidance that Tesla provides to its investors. This 🧵compares the company’s forecasts and guidance over a period of almost a decade to illustrate the point. 1/7 In Feb. 2014, Tesla issued a revolutionary document. Having delivered just 35,000 vehicles for 2013, it projected an astounding 500,000 production for 2020, and announced plans to build a battery factory with a capacity exceeding the world’s then total battery output. 2/7

WSJ’s “Heard on the Street” claims the "Tesla’s cool factor won’t take the Semi very far". This thread exposes the columnist’s willful blindness as the uncool factor. A🧵 in 2 parts.
Heard on the Street: Tesla’s 500-mile Semi truck may be too expensive bit.ly/3BLnEJx The article argues thusly: a 500-mile range truck is costly – the battery alone will cost over $100K – therefore the truck will not be able to compete with conventional ICE trucks which cost "roughly $120,000". Better would be the lower range (300 mile) truck.

Launch excitement is over; now let’s look at the Semi’s potential. TL:DR U.S. production is unlikely to reach the 40k units by 2024 in the US, but the golden opportunity lies in AsiaPac that could rapidly build the Semi in a business as large as Tesla is today. Let's get started! Research is difficult in this field as the best data are only available on paid subscription. This analysis relies on public data and my Statista subscription and is the deepest dive I can do not being in the industry and without paying big $$$ for research. Here goes.

Part 1: The Future of Twitter. TL:DR – Twitter could plausibly be a win for Elon and his investors (details provided), but the political risks are clouding the outcome. A long🧵in 2 parts “we simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful” (Warren Buffet, Berkshire Chairman’s letter 1986.)
The timing of Elon Musk’s Twitter bid may have been an act of greed when others were greedy!

We set off on the maiden voyage of our brand-new Model X, for which we had waited for almost a year. A 6,000+ mile road trip. Some comments on long-range journeys in EVs in the US today (plus my review of the X). TL/DR – in a Tesla, it’s a snap! X is great – with some caveats. Rogie, our aging but willing dog, and I drove out to Bozeman, MT. My wife flew out, and off we set on an ambitious agenda. We had only one month due to commitments but wanted to pack in much that we hadn’t seen in the 40 years we have lived in the US. And to road test the X!

This is tiresome. The likes of Moodys, Tony Sacconaghi, and even, yes, our own @garyblack00 second guessing Tesla's strategy is ironic. Tesla, having reinvented the auto business, are being held to measures and standards based on that outdated model!🧵

https://twitter.com/TeslaBoomerMama/status/1565720048521453568

It is incorrect to state that there are only 2 models in the Tesla lineup. There are 4. The S & X will deliver $2.5b of revenue in this quarter, a record Q revenue for 10yr old models at high margins, proving the timelessness of design when supported with modest refreshes

Just finished studying the Tesla Q2 10-Q. Found little in the details that haven’t already been discussed here. The overwhelming impression is outstanding execution as a matter of course! Other impressions are mainly about cash. A brief🧵 Amazing the lack of stress in the 10Q of the Shanghai forced shutdown. Looking at the results without any foreknowledge, one would have been astounded to hear of that news. It’s like the company just took it in stride. Also undeniable is that TSLA has become a money-printer.

Before Christmas 2019 Montana Skeptic (MS) wrote that Tesla “in many instances has allocated warranty expense to ‘Goodwill’ and other non-warranty expense categories” claiming this inflates gross margin and net income. bit.ly/2VQeDNl A friend asked me to look into these claims. @bradsferguson