The Most Important Silver Charts Right Now

A Holiday 🧵

Let's Gooo! 1) Silver Historical Chart

Simplicity is beauty.

Silver is setting up for the greatest breakout in the history of capital markets since 1972, when Gold broke out from an over 100-year-long base.

Silver itself broke to new all-time highs in 1973 (circle).

The historical chart dates back 170 years.

Breaking $50/oz is going to be extremely significant and lead to spectacular moves and volatility.

Silver breaking $50 = 2nd Greatest Breakout of All-Time

& The Greatest Breakout in 52 Years

How Does This Compare to Other Breakouts?

A Thursday 🧵

The 7 Greatest Breakouts of All-Time 1) 7th Greatest Breakout of All-Time: Copper 2005

Copper in 2005 broke-out from a 31-year base.

Copper exploded 170% in the first 12 months post-breakout.

I would have expected it to run more but the GFC had an impact.

It made additional gains after the GFC but it was a breakout where all gains came from the initial move post-breakout.

5 Gold Charts Catching My Eye Right Now

A 🧵

Here we go..... 1) Record Number of Fund Managers Think Gold is Overvalued

The Bank of America Fund Manager Survey shows the highest amount of fund managers in 18 years think Gold is overvalued.

Keep two things in mind here.

First, the survey dates back to 2008.

So, 2008-2011 and 2024-2025 are the only points during which Gold was in a secular bull market. And those are the points that need to be compared to today.

So there is not enough data for a proper comparison.

Second, in a secular bull, sentiment data like this will run hot.

October/November 2024 had one of the highest readings ever. Gold corrected less than 10%, then exploded higher in early 2025.

Friday 🧵

Gold's interim peak is in and a correction is underway.

Usually that means gold stocks, juniors and Silver will perform worse than Gold.

Not this time.

Let's see why.... 1) Let's look at a few historical precedents.

Starting with 2003

In late 2002 and into 2003, Gold made a big breakout move, clearing the low $3000s and a 5.5-year-long base.

It was very significant at the time.

Then Gold corrected and consolidated for a good 6 months before it began to break from its correction.

At one point, Gold was at the same price as it was 9 months earlier. No progress.

But the miners and juniors, after an initial selloff surged higher. Juniors really launched.

(GDXJ data pre 2004 is my own index).

Silver to Gold ratio bottomed in the middle of this period.

Tuesday 🧵

Yesterday was the end of the quarter.

Time for quarterly charts!

Let's goooooo..... 1) Gold Quarterly Chart

Gold closed the quarter on the high, which is a sign of strength.

The RSI compares to 1972, 1979, 2006 and to a lesser degree 2009.

The 2006 peak was after a huge breakout of a 23-year base but was not at all-time highs.

The extreme RSI in 1979 was in the middle of a blowoff top.

1972 is the best comparison because that peak followed a significant breakout to a new all-time high.

Gold corrected 13% then before exploding much higher.

Gold is only 12 months removed from breaking out of a 13-year base. This is critical to keep in mind.

When Silver's Big Move Against Gold Begins

A 🧵

Let's Goooooo! 1) Background

It has been a heck of a last year for precious metals. A year ago, Gold broke out from its 13-year cup and handle pattern, and days ago, it reached its measured upside target of $3,000/oz.

Quality miners and quality junior mining companies have surged higher.

Silver has moved higher alongside Gold but has not outperformed Gold yet. It has gained roughly the same amount as Gold in the past 13 months.

However, since the May 2024 peak, Silver is up only 4% while Gold is up nearly 25%.

Part of the issue is that Gold, after clearing $2100/oz, has been able to enjoy blue sky territory (no overhead resistance) while Silver has had to chew through multiple resistance levels between $26 and $35/oz.

Thursday 🧵

Gold & Silver Bull Analog Charts Updated

Let's Go! 1) Gold All-Time High Analog

This chart plots Gold's performance after the 3 breakouts to All-Time Highs that held. (2007 & 2020 breakouts did not hold).

There are four: 1972, 1978, 2009, 2024

Current move is hugging the top average line. The two average lines are close together.

Even if Gold follows the weakest of the other three, it could be at $4000/oz in 11 months.

The Most Important Indicator for Gold is Turning Bullish

...For the First Time in Almost 25 Years

A 🧵 1) Introduction to Critical Gold Relationships

We have written about the importance of Gold outperforming the stock market for nearly a decade. In addition, we expanded this concept by including Bonds to construct a 60/40 Portfolio.

In recent years, the bull market in precious metals has not felt like one due to the stock market’s strength, which has limited capital flows in precious metals.

However, that is beginning to change as capital has already started to move out of the Mag7, tech, and conventional stocks in favor of Gold.

Gold against the stock market has broken out and reached a 4-year high, while Gold against the 60/40 conventional investment portfolio is breaking out of a 10-year-long base.

Precious Metals Weekly Chart 🧵 1) Strong weekly close for Gold, but rest of sector not so much.

High of $2973, Gold has measured upside targets of $3000 and $3050.

Weekly support is in the low to mid $2700s.

200-day moving average is almost at $2600.

A Near-Perfect Setup in Miners for the Next 12-18 Months

A 🧵 1) Starting with Fundamentals...

Current Margins are Strong

Note the difference between the blue and red