“Real estate is not savings — it’s the amortization of a liability.”

🧵

Everyone thinks they’re rich because their house price went up.

But real estate wealth = borrowed money + falling interest rates.

When the credit tide goes out, you’ll see who actually owns equity. 💡 When you “buy a home,” what you’re really doing is entering into a long-term loan agreement (mortgage), often spanning 25-30 years.👉

Each monthly mortgage payment isn’t saving — it’s repaying principal (the loan) + interest (the cost of borrowing).

🇨🇦 Canadians Are Jumping From One Fire Into Another 🔥➡️🔥

They’re fleeing the most overvalued real estate bubble in Canadian history… straight into the most overvalued U.S. stock market in over a century.

Here’s why this is dangerous. 🧵 1

In the first 5 months of 2025, Canadians poured an unprecedented C$59.9B into U.S.-issued securities — the biggest spike in 35 years. 📈

Source: NBC, StatCan.

👴👵 Boomers… You and I Rode the Wave 🌊 — Now Comes the Crash

Canada’s Great Credit Paradox 🧵

🇨🇦 THREAD:

Canada’s Great Credit Paradox.

In 1982, mortgage rates hit 18%.

Today they’ve been under 3%.

Logic says Canadians should be borrowing like crazy, right?

WRONG.

Despite rock-bottom rates, household credit growth has been in freefall for 40+ years.

Here’s why this matters—especially if you’re a Baby Boomer holding big assets… 🧵 📊 The numbers don’t lie:

1973: +21% credit growth

1987: +17%

2007: +13%

2021: +6.7%

All while interest rates fell from 18% → under 3%.

This is no fluke—it’s a perfect logarithmic decline.

Something structural is at play.

🌪️ LongWave Perfect Storm -

RARE CONVERGENCE ALERT:

All four major cycles aligning simultaneously 🎯

• Kitchin cycle (3-5yr): Inventory/business peak ✅

• Juglar cycle (7-11yr): Fixed investment saturation ✅

• Kuznets cycle (15-25yr): Real estate/infrastructure climax ✅

• Kondratieff Wave (75-100yr): Centralization exhaustion ✅

This hasn't happened since the 1930s.

Winter is coming ❄️

"What does 'economic winter' actually mean?" 🧵 What does 'economic winter' actually mean? 🧵👇

It's not just a recession - it's a complete RESET of the economic system.

Think 1930s-1940s level transformation, not 2008 financial crisis ❄️

🧵Toronto Real Estate Bubble: 🚨

Part 1

A Comprehensive Analysis Through Economic Cycle Theory 🏠📊

The Magnitude of the Crisis 💸

The Toronto housing market has reached unprecedented levels of unaffordability, with the price-to-median after-tax income ratio at 17.8 times.

This represents a catastrophic departure from historical norms of 3-5 times income, creating what economists would classify as a severe asset bubble 📈 The underlying mathematics is staggering: between 1976 and 2022, real home prices increased by 512% while real incomes grew by only 15%.

This 34:1 ratio of price growth to income growth represents one of the most extreme housing affordability crises in developed world history.

Toronto Housing vs Gold: The Shocking Truth 🧵

🏠💰 THREAD:

I analyzed 20 years of CREA MLS data and what I found will blow your mind...

Toronto home prices in GOLD reveal the biggest monetary illusion of our time. The Numbers:📊 2005: $335k = 558 oz of gold

📊 2022 PEAK: $1.27M = 267 oz of gold

📊 2025: $1M = 217 oz of gold

That's a 61% COLLAPSE in real purchasing power!
🤯

Toronto Real Estate Prices in Gold 👇

Thread 1/15 🧵

The Great Canadian Reset is coming.

Three of history's most powerful economic cycles are converging on our $2.6 trillion housing market. This isn't just another correction—it's a complete system rewrite.

Here's what you need to know 👇 2/15 📊
Ray Dalio's new "Big Debt Cycle" study reads like a roadmap for Canada today.

We're 80 years into a debt supercycle that always ends the same way: with a massive deleveraging.

Our household debt is 180% of our income.

We're in the danger zone.

Will Canada have a Sovereign Debt Crisis Reality Check

1/8 🧵

This chart shows what a sovereign debt crisis looks like 📊

Greece's borrowing costs went from 3.5% → 65% in just 2.5 years 📈💥

Yet many Canadians think "it can't happen here"...
Why? 🤔 2/8

When investors lose confidence, it happens FAST ⚡
Look at that yellow line 👆

Greece essentially got locked out of borrowing markets. At 65% interest rates, you can't afford to borrow anymore 🚫💰

It's like having your credit cards maxed out at loan shark rates 💳