Macro without the BS.
Data-driven trends & cycles that actually matter.
My posts are opinions, not financial advice.
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Jul 28 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
1/ The Nasdaq just completed a massive rising wedge.
Every previous touch = selloff.
This time looks worse.
Way worse.
Charts don’t lie.
People just ignore them.
🧵 2/ Momentum is fading. Structure is complete. The poster child of the rally is stretched thin. Yet everyone thinks it's “just consolidating.” They’re sleepwalking into the edge.
Jul 18 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
S&P 500 to 3,000.
Nasdaq-100 to 7,000.
Not a guess. Not a chart fantasy.
Just structural math, debt cliffs, and denial.
The 2026–2027 crash isn’t coming.
It’s loaded.
The full breakdown 🧵👇 1) The top doesn’t announce itself.
It lulls you in.
February’s 20% drop was the first crack. It recovered. That’s the trap.Complacency is the tell. Liquidity is the lie.
Jan 12, 2024 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
🧵 The 1999-2000 stock market crash, a timeline of the dot-com bubble’s burst, where fortunes were made and lost: 1/ Late 1999 - The Climax of Exuberance: The Nasdaq surges, driven by tech and internet stocks. It’s a frenzy of IPOs with valuations based on potential rather than profit. Alan Greenspan, then Fed Chairman, warns of “irrational exuberance” in the markets.
Jan 10, 2024 • 17 tweets • 3 min read
🧵2008 Financial Crisis: A Dramatic Timeline
🔻 1/ "We have got the most dynamic financial markets in the world." - Early 2006, the market is buoyant, housing prices soar, and new complex financial products multiply unchecked.
Jan 9, 2024 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
🧵1929 Crash: A Timeline of Economic Catastrophe
🔻 1. Early 1920s - The Roaring Prelude: A false dawn of prosperity. Post-WWI euphoria fuels a rampant stock market, setting the stage for disaster.
Jan 7, 2024 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
🧵 The Alarming Parallels: Tesla’s Bubble & Yahoo’s Collapse 1/ Tesla’s spectacular rise in the market is starting to mirror one of the largest speculative bubbles in history, alarmingly similar to Yahoo’s dramatic burst during the dot-com crash.
Dec 11, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
🧵 Contrary to popular belief, rising debt levels are more likely to trigger deflation rather than inflation. Let’s dive into why debt will be deflationary. 1/ Debt accumulation by consumers, businesses, or governments means future spending is brought forward. This spending creates a temporary boost in economic activity but at the cost of future demand.
Nov 26, 2023 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Why I believe Tesla is going to CRASH -90% over the next 2 years.
THREAD🧵
1/10 Overblown Valuation?: Tesla's staggering $744.82 billion market cap overshadows BMW's $67.47 billion and Mercedes's $68.48 billion by over 10 times. Considering Tesla's lower car sales volumes, this valuation discrepancy is hard to justify.
Jan 7, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Don't be fooled by the old pattern. A weak PMI number may not lead to the bond rally everyone think it will as we're seeing a shift towards an inflationary cycle🧵
Here is why:
1/ Over the past decade, investors have become accustomed to a certain pattern in the market: when PMIs weaken, the FED tends to ease monetary policy, and stocks go up in response.
Jan 6, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
There has been a lot of talk recently about the end of the disinflation cycle and the beginning of the inflation cycle. So what exactly does this mean and why might it be happening?
🧵
1/ Disinflation has been the dominant trend in the global economy for the past few decades, thanks in large part to technological advancements and globalization. However, there are a few factors that suggest we are shifting towards an inflationary cycle.
Dec 29, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
We are on the brink of a global meltdown! My analysis shows that the equity market will experience a steep decline in the first half of next year. By the end of Q2, the market could be down a shocking 50% or more.
A thread🧵
1/ While we are currently experiencing a commodity bounce due to a dollar correction, ultimately the dollar will go back to its previous highs while commodities sink to new lows. This will drive the global economy into a deep recession and financial crisis.
Dec 28, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
The housing market is in decline, as we all know, but many people are under the impression that the worst is over and the "bottom is in". This couldn't be further from the truth.
🧵
1/ Housing prices tend to move slower than stock prices and take longer to correct themselves. This current housing cycle took prices farther out of their normal range than any other housing cycle in history, which means we are only in the early stages of this down cycle.
Dec 27, 2022 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
Precious metals like gold and silver are likely to shine in the next economic cycle.
Here is why:
🧵
1/ As the current debt levels are unsustainable, there are three options for addressing the situation:
*Raise taxes and pay off the debt(unpopular)
*Do a debt jubilee, forgiving debt(unpopular)
*Inflate away the debt by raising the Federal Reserve's inflation target(likely)
Dec 26, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Buckle up, because we're in for a bumpy ride. There are a number of factors that suggest we may be headed towards tough economic times, possibly even a depression.
Here are a few key reasons why:
🧵
1/ DECLINING CONSUMER SPENDING
Consumer sentiment is currently at HISTORIC lows, which indicate that people are becoming more cautious about spending and may be less likely to make major purchases in the near future.
Dec 25, 2022 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
🚨Get ready for a massive crash!🚨
I'm predicting that the S&P 500 and other indices will plummet an additional 40% from their current levels. Here's why:
1/ The recent rally was due to a decline in yields, as the market thought the FED would cut rates. But during the last FOMC meeting, J. Powell made it clear that more rate hikes are likely and the job isn't finished. Yields are now reflecting this and starting a new upward trend.
Dec 18, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Why I believe Tesla is going to $15-20 per share next year.
A thread🧵
Let's look at the market cap of Tesla, BMW and Mercedes.
Tesla: $470B
BMW: $54B
Mercedes: $66B
Tesla has a much larger market cap than its peers.
Oct 1, 2022 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
ANOTHER INFLATION THREAD(SEPTEMBER INCLUDED) 🧵
I have collected the average data on a basket of things that has an influence on the Consumer Price Index(CPI).
Do you think CPI comes in lower or higher than expected for SEPTEMBER? Let me know in the comments.
1) NATURAL GAS
SEPTEMBER: 7.89$
AUGUST: 9.02$
JULY: 7.425$
Sep 11, 2022 • 16 tweets • 5 min read
Oversold to overbought in 3 trading days. The market can go a little higher but I see this rally as a last hurrah.
HERE IS WHY
THREAD🧵
Before the GFC, almost all economists were saying no recession and hard landing in sight. A couple of months later we were in the biggest financial crisis since 1929.
Sep 10, 2022 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
I have collected the average data on a basket of things that has an influence on the Consumer Price Index(CPI).
Do you think CPI comes in lower than expected for August(8.1% forecasted)?
THREAD 🧵
1) NATURAL GAS
AUGUST: 9.02$
JULY: 7.425$
Jul 7, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
THREAD
1) A strong dollar getting much stronger in the coming months is going to trigger a major reversal in the global economy and global markets. This is the last thing a highly leveraged economy needs. 2) Emerging markets are the leading edge of this implosion but the U.S. equity markets will suffer as well. High quality bonds, particularly Treasuries, will be in big demand as investors seek shelter from the storm.
Mar 12, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
A thread on why I think we are in the topping phase. (Mind blowing charts)
1) The $NDX/ $RUT ratio is in a big decline. The structure looks very similar to the dotcom bubble. The MACD indicator has a bearish cross-over. 2) Dow Jones Industrial Average hit the 1929-2000 crash trendline.