The Real Estate God Profile picture
Institutional RE ($500MM+) turned REPE firm founder. Apply to work 1-on-1 with me to buy your own deals: https://t.co/IgNreCEwzF
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Apr 23 16 tweets 3 min read
Most people treat real estate like a numbers game

That’s the wrong way to look at it. Real estate isn’t just numbers in an excel file. It’s living and breathing

Here’s what to look for in a property to make sure you don’t make that mistake: First thing most investors do when they see a deal is open excel and look at the numbers

“What’s the cap rate?”

This is extremely stupid. You’re not buying numbers in excel, you’re buying real estate

If you buy solely based off numbers, you’re going to make a costly mistake
Jan 16 4 tweets 9 min read
// $0 to $1MM in 5 Years //

Probably the most common question I get from younger guys is “How would you do it all again if you were my age?”

I’ll do you one better. Here’s an extremely realistic gameplan to get from ~$0 to $1MM in 5 yrs

I’m going to assume that you have a W2, are roughly 22 and have limited capital coming out of college

We’re going to get you from $0 to $1MM in just 3 deals

// Deal 1 //

You’re broke and have no skills. Everyone was here at some point. You can either whine about it or you can get moving

Reason most people think making money is hard is that they focus on how hard the end goal is (making $1MM) instead of focusing on the first step of the process – gaining the knowledge necessary to start making money

This first deal doesn’t matter at all. The only reason it matters is to “get you in the game”. Once you buy a deal you start accruing market knowledge, you start accruing relationships (lender, investor, broker, etc) – you start to become “dangerous”

You obviously want it to be a good deal but it doesn’t need to be a *great* deal. Because the purpose isn’t to make money, it’s to gain knowledge/skills/relationships so you can make real money on future deals

So what does this mean in a practical sense?

Step 1: Figure out how much equity you either have yourself or can raise

I was literally dead broke for my first deal so was only able to put $2,500 of my own money in. I reached out to my entire network and was only able to gather ~$100k. That wasn’t enough to buy a triplex all cash in my market (which is what I was targeting)

So I reached out to friends who could possibly partner up in the deal. Meant splitting the GP profits but didn’t matter to me. Was going to do whatever it took. If I needed to take on 10 more partners, I would have. It wasn’t about the profit, it was about the skillset

I finaly found a partner and using our combined networks, we were able to muster $200k, which allowed us to buy a triplex

I’m going to assume you can raise a similar amount, but if not, no problem. Whatever amount you can raise, you back into a deal of that size. If you truly can’t raise any money (this is probably a severe character flaw if no one you’ve met in 20+ years of life would be willing to give you any money – but that’s a separate point), start up a real estate social media account, share your thoughts/analysis, create a network and raise the money that way

Step 2: Finding the deal

-          The market: You’re going to go into a market where deals sell for less than $150k/unit. Additionally, deals in the market should be selling for 6% cap rates at minimum otherwise you’re going to find it too difficult
-          You’re going to search on Zillow/Redfin for duplexes, triplexes and quads (loopnet and crexi only really work for bigger properties)
-          Open up excel. Make a list of every property listed in the market. Track the price per unit it’s listed for and note the price per unit it sells for. There should be 50+ properties on this list or you’re doing it wrong. Download any and all financial information that’s included in the listing. If there’s no information in the listing, call up the broker and get it from him. By the end of this process, you should know exactly what price per unit properties sell for in the market and exactly what cap rate they trade at. You’ll be looking to buy a property below the market price per unit and above the market cap rate (stabilized yield). Simple
-          Market rents: Same thing. First use the mls/costar if you have access to it. If not, get comps from brokers (still have to vet them yourself). Worst case scenario, use Zillow/apartments.com for active comps. Put them all in excel, discard any outliers and take the average. You’ll still need to run the “market rent” for each new deal you look at as each property differs slightly, but this should get you close initiallyImage -          Expenses: Use the P&L information you now have. Line each individual P&L up next to each other in excel & for each individual line item, note the cost per unit, cost per square foot & the overall expense load as a percent of revenue. Now you’ve figured out both revenue & expenses. You now should be able to create a brand new P&L for new properties you look at from scratch
-          Brokers: Every time you see a broker on a listing, you’re going to call him up, ask him a few questions about the deal, tell him your criteria & ask him to add you to his mailing list. You should start receiving “passive” deal flow to your inbox every morning. Should also set Zillow/redfin alerts for your criteria. You’ll probably have to look at over 100 deals before pulling the trigger
-          Underwriting. You’re going to underwrite 3-5 deals a week minimum. You’re going to underwrite them based on their stabilized yield (if you don’t know what this is, search my tweets for it). You’re looking for a 200 bps+ spread between your stabilized yield & the market cap rate. The higher the stabilized yield, the better. The goal is to understand exactly what price per unit & stabilized yield you’d buy a property in this market for so you’re ready to pull the trigger when the time comes

Step 3: Pulling the trigger

Your “buy box” should already be established, only thing left to do is find a deal that fits it. You should be tracking the aggregation sites daily, have plenty of broker contacts at this point & have a lot of deal flow hitting your inbox

When you see a deal that fits your criteria, pull the trigger
Since this is your 1st deal, you may have a hard time getting a loan. Instead of whining about this (like most people do), you can
1. Do the deal all cash
2. Use seller financing
3. Get a guarantor to hop on the loan

Doesn’t matter which one you use, just get the deal done. As quickly as possible

Deal 1 Summary: Depending on your access to capital, your first deal should be 1-5 units in the $200k to $500k range. The timeline should be quick (doesn’t take long to renovate 5 units or less) & the profit doesn’t really matter so I’m not even going to bother listing it. The idea is to “get you in the game”

// Deal 2 //

While you’re stabilizing Deal 1, you should be working on Deal 2. It’s not hard to operate a sub 5-unit property so you’ll have plenty of time. Idea is to close Deal 2 ~18 months after closing Deal 1. This is a very realistic timeline (I know because I’ve done it)

Deal 2 is different. You’re no longer a beginner. This makes life a lot easier. You’ve already established your market, you know your buy box, you have lender relationships & broker relationships. The only thing that’s changing is the deal size, which should now be bigger

This is the big mistake people make. Instead of scaling up after Deal 1, they do a similar-sized deal. They stay in their comfort zone. This is the opposite of what you want to do. Instead, you want to treat the first deal as a stepping stone to larger deals

This next deal should be in the 10-20 unit range, $500k - $2.5MM size range. The timeline should be roughly 18 months and your personal profit should be $38k - $188k. Honestly think this is a low bar but we’ll go with it anyway (you can beat a 2x return on a deal this small)

So how will it work?

You’re going to buy another value-add multi deal using the same process laid out above. Stabilized yield 200bps+ above the market cap rate (gets you to roughly a 2x return)

Let’s say you buy a $2.5MM deal. 75% debt, 25% equity. You don’t have to syndicate this deal but I’ll assume you’re still capital constrained & need to

$2.5MM * 25% = $625,000 total equity. I’ll assume you’re putting in 10% of the equity or $62,500

I’ll assume you’re able to 2x your equity in the deal over the course of 18 months (short timeframe again because of the low number of units), which is very doable for a deal in this size range. 2x means $625,000 in profit
Dec 14, 2023 5 tweets 4 min read
“A Roadmap For The Future”: How to not only avoid being left behind in today’s world, but a step by step process on how to thrive (next 5-10 yrs will be one of the easiest times in history to get rich)


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Dec 11, 2023 4 tweets 9 min read
// $0 to $1MM in 5 Years //

Probably the most common question I get from younger guys is “How would you do it all again if you were my age?”

I’ll do you one better. Here’s an extremely realistic gameplan to get from ~$0 to $1MM in 5 yrs

I’m going to assume that you have a W2, are roughly 22 and have limited capital coming out of college

We’re going to get you from $0 to $1MM in just 3 deals

// Deal 1 //

You’re broke and have no skills. Everyone was here at some point. You can either whine about it or you can get moving

Reason most people think making money is hard is that they focus on how hard the end goal is (making $1MM) instead of focusing on the first step of the process – gaining the knowledge necessary to start making money

This first deal doesn’t matter at all. The only reason it matters is to “get you in the game”. Once you buy a deal you start accruing market knowledge, you start accruing relationships (lender, investor, broker, etc) – you start to become “dangerous”

You obviously want it to be a good deal but it doesn’t need to be a *great* deal. Because the purpose isn’t to make money, it’s to gain knowledge/skills/relationships so you can make real money on future deals

So what does this mean in a practical sense?

Step 1: Figure out how much equity you either have yourself or can raise

I was literally dead broke for my first deal so was only able to put $2,500 of my own money in. I reached out to my entire network and was only able to gather ~$100k. That wasn’t enough to buy a triplex all cash in my market (which is what I was targeting)

So I reached out to friends who could possibly partner up in the deal. Meant splitting the GP profits but didn’t matter to me. Was going to do whatever it took. If I needed to take on 10 more partners, I would have. It wasn’t about the profit, it was about the skillset

I finaly found a partner and using our combined networks, we were able to muster $200k, which allowed us to buy a triplex

I’m going to assume you can raise a similar amount, but if not, no problem. Whatever amount you can raise, you back into a deal of that size. If you truly can’t raise any money (this is probably a severe character flaw if no one you’ve met in 20+ years of life would be willing to give you any money – but that’s a separate point), start up a real estate social media account, share your thoughts/analysis, create a network and raise the money that way

Step 2: Finding the deal

-          The market: You’re going to go into a market where deals sell for less than $150k/unit. Additionally, deals in the market should be selling for 6% cap rates at minimum otherwise you’re going to find it too difficult
-          You’re going to search on Zillow/Redfin for duplexes, triplexes and quads (loopnet and crexi only really work for bigger properties)
-          Open up excel. Make a list of every property listed in the market. Track the price per unit it’s listed for and note the price per unit it sells for. There should be 50+ properties on this list or you’re doing it wrong. Download any and all financial information that’s included in the listing. If there’s no information in the listing, call up the broker and get it from him. By the end of this process, you should know exactly what price per unit properties sell for in the market and exactly what cap rate they trade at. You’ll be looking to buy a property below the market price per unit and above the market cap rate (stabilized yield). Simple
-          Market rents: Same thing. First use the mls/costar if you have access to it. If not, get comps from brokers (still have to vet them yourself). Worst case scenario, use Zillow/apartments.com for active comps. Put them all in excel, discard any outliers and take the average. You’ll still need to run the “market rent” for each new deal you look at as each property differs slightly, but this should get you close initially
Image -          Expenses: Use the P&L information you now have. Line each individual P&L up next to each other in excel & for each individual line item, note the cost per unit, cost per square foot & the overall expense load as a percent of revenue. Now you’ve figured out both revenue & expenses. You now should be able to create a brand new P&L for new properties you look at from scratch
-          Brokers: Every time you see a broker on a listing, you’re going to call him up, ask him a few questions about the deal, tell him your criteria & ask him to add you to his mailing list. You should start receiving “passive” deal flow to your inbox every morning. Should also set Zillow/redfin alerts for your criteria. You’ll probably have to look at over 100 deals before pulling the trigger
-          Underwriting. You’re going to underwrite 3-5 deals a week minimum. You’re going to underwrite them based on their stabilized yield (if you don’t know what this is, search my tweets for it). You’re looking for a 200 bps+ spread between your stabilized yield & the market cap rate. The higher the stabilized yield, the better. The goal is to understand exactly what price per unit & stabilized yield you’d buy a property in this market for so you’re ready to pull the trigger when the time comes

Step 3: Pulling the trigger

Your “buy box” should already be established, only thing left to do is find a deal that fits it. You should be tracking the aggregation sites daily, have plenty of broker contacts at this point & have a lot of deal flow hitting your inbox

When you see a deal that fits your criteria, pull the trigger
Since this is your 1st deal, you may have a hard time getting a loan. Instead of whining about this (like most people do), you can
1. Do the deal all cash
2. Use seller financing
3. Get a guarantor to hop on the loan

Doesn’t matter which one you use, just get the deal done. As quickly as possible

Deal 1 Summary: Depending on your access to capital, your first deal should be 1-5 units in the $200k to $500k range. The timeline should be quick (doesn’t take long to renovate 5 units or less) & the profit doesn’t really matter so I’m not even going to bother listing it. The idea is to “get you in the game”

// Deal 2 //

While you’re stabilizing Deal 1, you should be working on Deal 2. It’s not hard to operate a sub 5-unit property so you’ll have plenty of time. Idea is to close Deal 2 ~18 months after closing Deal 1. This is a very realistic timeline (I know because I’ve done it)

Deal 2 is different. You’re no longer a beginner. This makes life a lot easier. You’ve already established your market, you know your buy box, you have lender relationships & broker relationships. The only thing that’s changing is the deal size, which should now be bigger

This is the big mistake people make. Instead of scaling up after Deal 1, they do a similar-sized deal. They stay in their comfort zone. This is the opposite of what you want to do. Instead, you want to treat the first deal as a stepping stone to larger deals

This next deal should be in the 10-20 unit range, $500k - $2.5MM size range. The timeline should be roughly 18 months and your personal profit should be $38k - $188k. Honestly think this is a low bar but we’ll go with it anyway (you can beat a 2x return on a deal this small)

So how will it work?

You’re going to buy another value-add multi deal using the same process laid out above. Stabilized yield 200bps+ above the market cap rate (gets you to roughly a 2x return)

Let’s say you buy a $2.5MM deal. 75% debt, 25% equity. You don’t have to syndicate this deal but I’ll assume you’re still capital constrained & need to

$2.5MM * 25% = $625,000 total equity. I’ll assume you’re putting in 10% of the equity or $62,500

I’ll assume you’re able to 2x your equity in the deal over the course of 18 months (short timeframe again because of the low number of units), which is very doable for a deal in this size range. 2x means $625,000 in profit
Sep 28, 2023 9 tweets 19 min read
// Why losing money in your 20s is near meaningless and why people who focus on maximizing earning capacity instead are the wealthiest by far //

When I was 22, I lost $30k on a real estate deal. At the time, it was pretty much my entire net worth.

According to every official "personal finance" rule ever, I’d committed a cardinal sin by losing my principal.

But it ended up being one of the best things that ever happened to me.
 
In order to understand why this was the case, you first have to understand why “personal finance gurus” are wrong about everything. And the reason they’re wrong about everything is that they view everything from a purely financial perspective – as if it’s all happening in the cells of an excel model.

What pretty much no financial guru gets is that losing money doesn’t happen in a vacuum. In my case, they would tell me – “you invested $30k and lost $30k, so you had a 0x return”.

The next thing they would do is plug that $30k into a compound interest calculator and show me how much money I lost out on over the next 40 years. “$30k at 8% over 40 years would be $650k. So you didn’t just lose $30k, you actually lost $650k. Yadda yadda yadda, yap yap yap.” From a purely financial perspective, they’re right.

Unfortunately for them, that’s not how life works. Life isn’t played in a box. It can’t be accounted for in a model. You can color outside the lines.

The results of your prior investments are linked to the returns of your future investments. This is a critical thing to realize. Although the investments appear to be separate on paper, they’re not – they’re connected by you. And you’re a living, breathing, changing organism. When you lose $30k, $50k, $100k, $1MM, the return on that capital doesn’t stop the day that the investment is toast. It’s not etched as a zero for all of eternity.

The lessons you learn from a failed investment are crucial to helping you make better investments and better returns in the future.

Once again, this doesn’t show up in an excel model because it’s intangible – the “change” is occurring in your brain (in the form of becoming a better investor) and your brain can’t be reflected in an excel model. It's a 0x return on paper but a massive return in terms of future earning power.

In the most simple terms possible – the reason why losing $30k was one of the best things that ever happened to me is that I lost money in the short-term but gained earning capacity. And the earning capacity that I gained far outstripped the money that I lost.

The thing that I’ve always found odd is that people tell you that, in the beginning, learning is more important than earning when it comes to your job (“learn in your 20s, earn in your 30s”) but they never talk about the importance of learning when it comes to investing. They just tell you that you need to start early and you need to be compounding. But what if you were able to learn skills that made you capable of out-compounding the average person? Wouldn’t it be worth losing some money to learn those skills?

That’s where earning capacity comes into play.

**Earning Capacity**

This concept of earning power is extremely important. High earning power is actually quite literally the most important trait you can have financially. We’ll get into why that is more at the bottom of this section, but first off let’s define the concept.

What is earning capacity?

I like to quantify people’s abilities into a specific “earning capacity”. Everyone on earth has a different earning capacity based on their skillset, their resources, their work ethic and their network. Someone who works at McDonalds has a very different earning capacity than the CEO of a publicly traded company. Just like a tech sales rep has a very different earning capacity than a hedge fund analyst.

I define earning capacity as your ability to generate net worth over a 10-year time-span. So if your current abilities allow you to add $3MM to your net worth over a 10-year time-frame, that’s your “earning capacity”. There’s some fluidity between ability to add income and ability to add net worth, but for the purposes of simplicity, let’s just stick to ability to add to your net worth right now (the ability to add value to your net worth is far more important anyway).

Earning capacity can be gained but it’s very rarely lost. Because it’s hard to lose the knowledge once you have it. In a sense it’s like a video game. You perform a task and you “level up”. It’s hard to track the upper bound of your earning capacity, but it’s relatively easy to track the lower bound of your earning capacity. The lower bound is the minimum amount you should be adding to your net worth every 10 years

As a baseline, this number should at least be in the 7-figures. If it’s not, you have a major earning capacity problem (we’ll address how to solve this problem later on). A sub-7-figure earning capacity should be considered crisis mode – not even kidding, I would put everything on hold in your life until you work your way into 7-figure plus range

So why is earning capacity so important?

For a few reasons. The first is for downside protection. If you get zeroed out and you have very high earning capacity, it’s not even a big deal. It’s actually pretty close to impossible for being zeroed out to affect you for long if you have serious earning capacity because…you can simply earn your way out of the problem

And that’s a good way of testing how powerful your earning capacity is as well – if you got zeroed out tomorrow, how quickly would you be able to make it all back? The quicker the better obviously

If the answer is that you wouldn’t really be able to make it back, that’s a huge problem. That means you got lucky making your money and you can’t repeat it. It means your earning capacity is poor & that you need to develop skills ASAP

The second reason why earning capacity is so important is the obvious one – it’s how you make a lot of money

So the question really becomes “how can you generate excess earning capacity?” – & the answer is almost exclusively from mistakes (experience).

Let’s dive into an example from my own life.

**Continuing the Example From My Own Life**

In my case, that $30k I lost was on a real estate deal. I lost the capital but I gained experience. I learned how to structure deals. I learned about risk & reward. I learned which deals to take down moving forward and which ones to avoid. I learned how to make money

The lessons I learned by losing my principal in that deal helped me in every single one of my future deals

How does this work?

Let’s look at an ex of a deal I’m currently doing. In Sep 2021, I bought a 48-unit multi deal for $2.6MM. Since then I’ve increased the rents from an average of ~$700 to an average of over $1,200. In turn, that has increased the NOI to over $500k, meaning that the building is worth roughly $7MM at a 7% cap rate. The details really aren’t important, but what is important is the returns at the new valuation.

Below are the real returns of the deal at the current estimated valuation (feel free to handicap the valuation as you see fit). I’m the “Sponsor” which means my returns will be 7.5x (disclosure – I have 2 partners so the promote is split 3 ways)

These are obviously not normal returns – they’re entirely abnormal. And do you know why that is? It’s because I haven’t lived a normal life. I’ve taken risks. I’ve made mistakes – a lot of them. Those experiences have made the person I am today - a person who’s capable of generating these types of returns. I don’t mean to brag but it’s important to emphasize – I’m the person I am today because of the mistakes I’ve made (including losing my principal on several embarrassing occasions)

Reason my earning capacity is so high is that I’ve learned from my experiences

[kept initial writing in place but deal has since sold for $6.4MM]
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Sep 26, 2023 4 tweets 8 min read
It’s always good to look at past deals to see if you passed on any deals that you should’ve bought

This is an example of a deal that I passed on in 2021, but in hindsight, probably should’ve bought

Why? Because I underestimated the upside case

The deal was a 16-unit multifamily property that was being offered for $1.5MM. The deal was interesting for a few reasons:

1.     It was good real estate. It was located in a great neighborhood with a great school district in the middle of a cluster of single-family homes (barely any other apartment complexes in the area). The units were 2 stories with a basement/ backyard which gave it more of a "home" feel than an "apartment" feel - felt like you could raise kids there
2.     The deal was hairy. It was in a tenant-in-common structure. Basically there were 7 buildings that comprised 4 units each and I’d be buying 4 of those buildings (for a total of 16 units). This tenant-in-common structure scared a lot of buyers, which meant opportunity

I generally try to structure deals with very low downside risk, high upside kickers and multiple exit strategies – I know this sounds obvious, but very few investors actually structure deals like this.

// The Low Downside Risk //

First off, it’s great real estate stabilizing to a conservatively underwritten ~9% stabilized yield. But why is the downside risk low - what makes it "conservatively underwritten"?

1. It included $20k/unit for renovations reserved up front
2. Stabilizing ~200 bps above the market cap rate is generally pretty safe
3. The stabilized DSCR was very high at 3.6x. For reference, banks usually lend down to ~1.2x DSCR
4. Low leverage. The deal was only 50% levered off the purchase price and the renovations were funded through equity

One thing I'd note though is that fractured condo/TIC deals typically have fewer buyers. So there's less potential liquidity on an exit. The downside is just cash flowing at a high DSCR so it's relatively capped but it's worth noting

// The Upside //

There are 2 upside cases in this deal:
1. Since the property consisted of buildings that comprised 4 units, they could be spun off/condo’d out to an owner-user for a higher price than they would have yielded as cash flowing multifamily (~$175k/unit to an owner user vs the base case ~$145k/unit to a multifamily operator after resizing the rents to market). Anytime you see a property with the ability to break it down to sellable pieces of 4 units or less (4 units is the max allowable units that the government allows to receive higher leverage gov financing – FHA loans, etc), that represents a significant opportunity to sell off to an owner-user for an increased price
2. There was a possibility of buying out the remaining 3 units, dissolving the TIC structure & converting to regular multifamily. It’s all speculation (anytime you’re betting on a cap rate at a point in time in the future, you’re speculating) but generally you can get ~100 bps lower (better) debt on multifamily vs multifamily units that are encumbered with a tenant-in-common type structure, which means a lower exit cap rate

// Exit Strategies //

In a normal deal, there's only one exit strategy, this deal has 3:
1. Exit as a 4-building (16 unit) portfolio fractured tenant-in-common deal
2. Buy up the other 3 buildings, exit as a 7-building (28 unit) multifamily deal
3. Spin off each building individually to an owner-user or as condos

Buying good real estate, investing in slightly more "complex" deals & structuring deals like this makes the deal way more versatile

Low downside risk, 2 upside cases and 3 exit strategies - gives you a lot of levers to pull if things end up going wrong. In most deals, if things go wrong, your only option is to sell as-is and take the loss

Now let’s discuss the tenant-in-common structure…
Image // The Tenant-In-Common Structure //

The tenant-in-common structure was interesting and made this deal very attractive to me. For those of you who are unaware, a tenant-in-common structure is basically an agreement that divides a parcel of land into ownership between more than one person

Any time the ownership of a deal isn't absolute (“fee simple”) or there's any bit of hair on the legal side, that scares away a lot of buyers. A lot of buyers just skip over the deal because they're too lazy to read the tenant-in-common docs. In this case, most of the ~10 initial bidders weren't willing to bid at ask because they read the tenant-in-common docs, didn't understand them & thought there was risk in them (not even kidding - the bar is that low - if you have basic reading comprehension skills you have a significant advantage)

Here's the gist of the docs:
- Each individual owner of the 7 buildings (in reality, it was a developer) agreed in the 1980s, to contribute their buildings to an Association which was to be a TIC. These buildings were then leased back as individual ground leases for $1/year
- The ground leases had ~10 years left on them but automatically renewed after that unless there was a unanimous decision between all of the members to revert (so there was no way to get out of the tenant-in-common structure after 10 years just by virtue of time elapsing)
- The Association is composed of 7 members who all have an equal vote and is governed by a board of directors composed of 3 individuals. Any member of the board of directors could be removed without cause by a majority of the members (4+). As owners of 16 units, I’d own 4/7 of the buildings, a majority, and I’d be able to elect the entire board of directors and control the entire Association
- In effect, the only things the board of directors/the majority couldn’t do is to change the documents or dissolve the association (which is very important because it means you can't force the other owners to sell)

Essentially there was nothing "dangerous" about the docs given that I would own a majority of units and would control the entire Association

The "base-case" scenario, therefore, was actually pretty safe. The main negative was that the upside was less likely to occur because each upside scenario depended on owning all of the units and there was no way to force the current owners to sell

This is really the main reason why I wasn't willing to bid higher on the deal. There was no real "trump card"
The only way to take full control of the Association (and have the ability to dissolve it and turn it into multi) was to buy the units from the 3 other owners

So this meant a few things:
1. My conviction in the upside cases was significantly lower than it could've been. Since the base case was way more likely than the upside case, this meant I had to be way more comfortable with the base case
2. The deal could've ended up being a longer term hold than I wanted it to be if I had to wait for all of the owners to sell to me
3. The other owners had a lot of power over me. Needing them to sell to you obviously isn't an ideal position to be in. And they're 3 of them. Because even if I could convince 2 of them to sell, the last one can hold out on me and essentially extort me if he realizes how valuable his property is to me. There are obviously things you can do to make their life incredibly difficult (jack up the fees, pass laws to hinder their ability to conduct business) but that method really isn't ideal for a lot of different reasons
4. The last upside case was that the property could be sold off individually to owner-users. The issue with this is that I would only be buying 4/7 of the buildings. Since a majority of buildings controlled the Association, after selling off the first building individually I'd no longer have a majority and would be at the whim of the Association

Which means that…
Sep 5, 2023 19 tweets 4 min read
You want to start your own real estate private equity firm but you don’t know how much it’ll cost

Here’s how to think about start-up costs: There are basically 2 ways to set up a real estate private equity firm

1. First way is to start a fund. This means you raise the money first and find the deals later

2. The second way is to operate deal-by-deal, which means you only raise money for specific deals as you need it
Aug 7, 2023 18 tweets 4 min read
HOW PRIVATE EQUITY FIRMS ANALYZE DEALS:

Most important metrics:

1. Stabilized cap rate (yield):

Since we focus on value add, the entry cap doesn’t matter, as long as we can service our debt

The stabilized yield matters because it shows the intrinsic cash flow of the deal The stabilized yield is the stabilized (post-renovation) NOI divided by all the costs in the deal

Very simple calculation (see below for an example) but very important Image
Jun 22, 2023 17 tweets 3 min read
What's the relationship between cap rate, return on cost, and stabilized yield?

This is arguably the most important relationship in real estate and most people don’t understand it at all

It’s actually really simple

// THREAD // Let’s start with the basics

- The cap rate is the NOI divided by the purchase price. When you buy a deal, you buy it for an in-place cap rate

- The return on cost is the NOI increase of a specific action (usually a renovation) divided by the cost of that renovation
Jun 7, 2023 16 tweets 3 min read
Let’s say you’re looking to buy a real estate deal and want to use a community bank for the financing

These lenders will be looking to make sure you satisfy 5 main requirements in order to fund your deal: The 5 lender requirements are:

- within “the deal itself”
1. DSCR at or above 1.25x
2. LTV at or below 75%

- regarding “you as a borrower”
3. Net worth = loan amount
4. Liquidity = 10% of loan amount
5. Adequate experience (your “REO” schedule)
Jun 2, 2023 11 tweets 3 min read
Despite what most people would like you to believe, evaluating a property is actually incredibly easy

Here’s how you evaluate the financials of a building in the most simple way possible:

(Hint: You shouldn’t even be thinking about IRR in the beginning) Real estate is a cash flow business

The trick is to underwrite not on the in-place income, but based on the future cash flow of the property at the *current* market rents (assuming no rent growth)

The way to do this? You underwrite the current “stabilized yield” of the property
May 17, 2023 13 tweets 3 min read
1. Go to tertiary market
2. Find a product type that’s profitable to build
3. Check zoning code and figure out the zoning that allows for that product type
4. Reach out to every property zoned for that use but currently operating as a *different* use
5. Buy, profit

// THREAD // This takes the “off-market property” strategy one step further

The issue with most off-market strategies is that the owner actually has some idea of the value of the property

For example, most owners know approximately what a multifamily property should be worth in the area
May 15, 2023 11 tweets 2 min read
“Is BRR a good strategy?”

BRRR isn’t a strategy. It’s a way of realizing value once the value has been created

The actual strategy is in how you create the value

//thread// The way you create value in real estate is not by “BRRRing”

It’s by getting the stabilized yield above the market cap rate

You create a cashflow stream that yields you 8% that the market values at 6%. You can then clip the spread in value (the profit)

Here’s an example:
Mar 8, 2023 10 tweets 2 min read
One of the biggest mistakes I see beginners make is not understanding the market cap rate

If you don’t understand how the market values the property (the market cap rate), you’re going to lose money

Here’s why: Real estate properties are sold based on the value of the future cash flow

The cash flow is valued based on the cap rate (NOI / purchase price)

Higher the cap rate, the less valuable the cash flow stream (the property). Lower the cap rate, the more valuable the cash flow stream
Mar 3, 2023 14 tweets 4 min read
Most people think higher interest rate, higher LTV debt is always more dangerous than other types of debt

That line of thinking is flawed. Bigger risk with debt is actually a balloon payment coming due at the wrong time

Let’s talk through how RE investors typically go bankrupt The most common way for real estate investors to go bankrupt is by not being able to pay back their lender

In fact, it’s very very difficult (almost impossible) to go BK on an unlevered deal

So the real question is what about the debt makes investors go BK?
Mar 1, 2023 16 tweets 4 min read
Real estate is unique in that the return on cost on dollars re-invested into the deal is typically repeatable (due to the similarity of units)

This may not seem important but it can actually alter your personal "risk free" return rate

What does this mean?

// THREAD // For those of you who don't know, return on cost is the NOI change of a specific action (usually a renovation) divided by the cost of that reno

An example is below

Reno cost of $13k and NOI increase of $3,600 (($1,200-$900) * 12 months)

$3.6k NOI increase / $13k cost = 28% ROC
Feb 27, 2023 8 tweets 3 min read
// Understanding Risk //

“Risk” is a very misunderstood concept. Most people simply don’t get it

This is a problem because every decision you make is governed by your risk-reward calculator

To make effective decisions, you need to rethink how you think about risk - here’s how: **How Your Brain’s Internal Risk-Reward Calculator Works**

Risk is a relative term. It doesn’t exist within a vacuum

Your brain needs data points to calculate risk relative to other actions

There are two basic ways to accumulate those data points. The first is by engaging in… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Feb 24, 2023 9 tweets 4 min read
// Why losing money in your 20s is near meaningless and why people who focus on maximizing earning capacity instead are the wealthiest by far //

When I was 22, I lost $30k on a real estate deal. At the time, it was pretty much my entire net worth.

According to every official… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… So if your current abilities allow you to add $3MM to your net worth over a 10-year time-frame, that’s your “earning capacity”. There’s some fluidity between ability to add income and ability to add net worth, but for the purposes of simplicity, let’s just stick to ability to add… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
Feb 20, 2023 19 tweets 4 min read
// CASE STUDY //

This was a retail sale-leaseback deal I looked at a few years ago. List price was $1.3MM

Seller was in a bind and would lease back for 3-5 yrs at a 10% cap rate and would guarantee the lease

So what’s the best way to structure a deal like this? DEAL STRUCTURE - HOW TO ANALYZE A DEAL LIKE THIS:

Deals like this are all about:

1. How quickly you can get your money out
2. How "secure" the cashflow is

We'll go through both of these in order
Feb 17, 2023 26 tweets 5 min read
In real estate there are $200,000 job opportunities and there are $5MM job opportunities

The key is knowing what to look for

Here are the questions you should be asking: There are 6 main aspects to focus on:

1. The organizational structure of the firm (very important in terms of what you'll learn, what your potential comp could be, and what your responsibilities at the firm will be)
2. Triangulating what your in-place comp will be
Feb 17, 2023 26 tweets 5 min read
// HOW TO SELL A DEAL TO INVESTORS //

You don't want to start out by spouting numbers and statistics. You'll lull your audience to sleep

If you know any marketers, they'll tell you the best way to sell anything is a story

So that's what you're going to do as well... The basic structure is this:

Story of the property ---> background of the deal ---> merits of the deal ---> actual numbers