Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
UMass Amherst Political Science, Int'l Rel & 中文 Minors. JD Univ. Hawaii. Liberal. Still have my Kennedy/Johnson button. Jin Jiyan Azadî
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Apr 30 5 tweets 1 min read
1. I think it's unlikely there has been no Kremlin role in stoking the antisemitism on US campuses. Possible impairment of 702 during period pro-Kremlin members of Congress blocked its reauthorization, the Ukraine war based on disinformation of a Nazi-Jewish president, 2. Donald Trump's constant stoking of Nazi hate nationwide as an extension of the 2016 Russian influence campaign all strongly suggest a Kremlin role. The Senate Intelligence Committee needs to gather IC and make pointed inquiry whether this insurgent antisemitism has a Kremlin
Apr 28 10 tweets 2 min read
1. I remain a student of #Mideast affairs but the one thing I have known for certain for many years is that #Hamas does not seek to fix the Palestinians' plight. Hamas, like all antidemocratic forces in the region, seeks to exploit Palestinian injustice & misery to destroy the 2. #Jewish state. It is the thing that binds #Shia and #Sunni on a single mission, the same mission that #Hitler adopted: #Genocide. Sadly, #Netanyahu and his racist #warcabinet decided to use #agressivewar in response to the #Oct7Massacre to immediately flip
Apr 27 6 tweets 2 min read
1. I see reports of a diplomatic snub inferred from no Chinese high official being at the airport as @SecBlinken left after his three -day visit to Beijing. What I found astounding is that Xi gave Blinken 3 days of his time. I can’t recall ever witnessing that in my life. 2. Then Blinken reportedly gives Xi an ultimatum to cut Moscow off on assistance to conduct its Ukraine invasion. To me a big send off would have seemed odd. There has to be a sense of outrage & panic in Chinese official circles trying to grasp what is coming if they fail to cut
Apr 27 6 tweets 1 min read
1. My opinion on the situation in Gaza.

First, Hamas' brutal invasion of Israel was an act of war and authorized the Israeli invasion. Second, the Israeli battle plan engaged in the prohibited crime against humanity of agressive war and there is evidence that could support the 2. element of specific intent required for conviction of crime against humanity of genocide. Third, my initial analysis concludes that Netanyahu and members of the war cabinet and top military commanders could be targets of a charges in the Hague.
Apr 26 6 tweets 1 min read
1. Oral argument today made me recall how curious the question presented was and how even the Court seemed to acknowledge that they were not addressing it. I missed bits and one bit I missed I just heard on MSNBC was Alito saying he didn't want to discuss the facts of the case. 2. That was astounding thing to hear an appellate judge say: facts of the case don't matter. My impression when it was over was that the liberals were not speaking as they might if the six conservatives were all onboard with the Trump dictatorship. Alito and Thomas sounded angry.
Apr 22 7 tweets 2 min read
1. Trying to imagine what would be so urgent as to cause Putin to rush to the Kremlin on Sunday night. A quick survey of Russian press and I found one report that confirmed something that I had thought might happen now that the aid money and weapons are certain to come in days. 2. Ukraine had to be holding a cache of weapons for a massive Russian offensive. Things like ATACMS, HIMARS, 155 mm smart munitions, Javelins & Stingers. They would be limiting offensive operations and focused waiting to hold the line from and offensive. I think they went all in.
Apr 21 6 tweets 2 min read
1. In February the KRG PM visited DC. No official meeting with @POTUS @Joebiden. At the time I wondered if the Barzani family relationship with Erdogan might have them on the outs with DC. 2. This cold shoulder contrasted with the recent meeting between the US President and the Iraqi PM.

Erdogan arrives in Erbil Monday at same time he's reported to have begun attack on Northern areas of Iraqi Kurdistan in violation of Iraqi sovereignty.

c-span.org/video/?534931-…
Apr 2 4 tweets 1 min read
1. Random facts occasionally haunt me. A recent report that I think I heard on MSNBC said that Trump was not spending on a Michigan ground game. That struck me as so odd it lingered in my mind while I ponder to find some way to explain it. 2. Tonight on @11thHour I think I may have heard something that may explain what Trump is planning. If this pans out, the good news is that he thinks he's going to lose and is preparing for his next grift. On @SRuhle's hour there was discussion of Trump rallies and how they
Mar 31 6 tweets 2 min read
1. I find it unlikely that people like Scott Perry, who I think was part of a military coup plot, did not raise presidential immunity in the grand jury. I've watched several dockets in the DC Cir and I think at least one or two have made it to SCOTUS based on the 2. timing of sealed filings in the DC record. Could there already be a full discussion of the POTUS immunity in a sealed opinion? SCOTUS would all be aware of the case that might explain the liberals remaining quiet while the court as a whole moved the case slowly to conclusion
Mar 24 5 tweets 1 min read
1.Since 2014, I have consistently expressed my belief that Russia and ISIS (nka Daesh) were connected. Today, Daesh thrives in an area of Syria that is protected from US strikes due to a US deconfliction agreement with Russia. Image 2. Let's watch and see if Russia does anything to disturb Daesh in this area. The reporting on the attack and the fact that AMAQ is reporting in the manner it has not previously reported is consistent with my view that Russia and Daesh are at least tacitly affiliated.
Mar 23 8 tweets 2 min read
1. Bankruptcy is often used to perform the function of orderly liquidation of debtor assets to pay creditors through a process optimized to keep costs of liquidation low. Take a hotel that cannot be reorganized but needs to be sold. If a judgment creditor holding a huge 2. judgment levies execution and sell it on the courthouse steps it often gets a pittance where the sale is subject to senior liens and encumbrances. But in a bankruptcy section 11 USC 363(f) sale, the property can be marketed and, best of all, be sold free
Mar 23 4 tweets 1 min read
1. The capture of the alleged ISIS-K terrorists near Belarus makes perfect sense if Putin had planned this. He would be able to control information near the attack to make sure the attackers escaped but if he gave orders far beyond Moscow to allow them to escape at the border 2. that could risk the plan being exposed. So the dutiful Russian border forces did not stand down and when they saw the something suspicious made the stop then posted it, likely to Telegram, that the Kremlin uses and thus has opened a portal that can disrupt planning.
Mar 21 7 tweets 2 min read
1. When the the liens start hitting Trump assets and he's forced to sit for debtor exams the truth will emerge that the NY case has exposed, not just the instances of fraud in the allegations raised therein, but that his entire "empire" is simply a grift. I seriously doubt there 2. is more than $100m in equity once the costs of liquidation are deducted from sales proceeds. His fee burn in the litigation will eat that up in short order. I also suspect that he can't find sufficient unrestricted cash to retain a competent bankruptcy firm to try to save
Mar 21 4 tweets 1 min read
1. The Trump 2023 ethics disclosure tells me he's broke. First as you can see highlighted, he unloaded a ton of commercial real estate while the market was depressed. I would doubt he got anything but workouts to walk away from the assets. We know he sold the old DC post office. Image 2. somebody needs to run title reports on all these assets to see if he still owns any of them. The Chicago building is perhaps why he can't put his entities in bankruptcy that I thought he would have filed by now. Without seeing the loan docs it's impossible to be sure
Mar 17 7 tweets 2 min read
1. Did Trump's, there will be a bloodbath if he loses, statement violate his terms of release? Was that a crime of violence? Ordinarily such a statement would not be actionable because there is no imminent threat, but when a person is released pending charges for actions 2. that led to an insurrection, does that meet the Brandenburg v. Ohio imminent threat of lawless action test? Does it even apply in a case where the defendant is on pre-trial release?

The imminent lawless action test was addressed in
Mar 13 5 tweets 1 min read
1. I've been on social media long time. I also minored in Chinese with my major focused on Chinese politics. My parents and sister left Shanghai in 1949 on a refugee ship where my dad covered the Chinese Civil War. 2. I have never touched #TiKTok because I believe it's a Chinese Communist Party intelligence service operation. FARA needs to be amended to address hostile foreign influence in our media. Propaganda can be regulated but as technology advances the manipulation of
Mar 9 4 tweets 1 min read
One thing I never do is underestimate a known fraudster. Here's the address of the surety on Trump's Supersedeas bond. Image It's 3.6 miles from Trump's Bedminster course Image
Feb 29 10 tweets 2 min read
1. I've pondered SCOTUS' cryptic order. Breaking it down, the court asks whether a former president has presidential immunity from criminal prosecution for conduct alleged to involve official acts during his/her tenure in office. 2. And if the president has presidential immunity from criminal prosecution for conduct alleged to have involved official acts during his/her tenure in office, what is the extent of the immunity? My late brother investigated two former presidents for criminal acts committed while
Feb 26 5 tweets 1 min read
The reason Trump has to file bankruptcy is if he can't bond the judgments the judgment liens will likely attach soon and after 90 days will become unavoidable secured debt on his real estate junior to consensual mortgage debt but senior to Trump. The state being a judgment creditor creates an interesting dynamic because the state can also file tax liens. For instance if they think he has had Russian mob debt forgiven they could do a jeopardy assessment for unreported discharge of indebtedness income and file the liens.
Feb 25 4 tweets 1 min read
1. I looked at Trump's finances seven years ago and concluded he was likely insolvent back then. I think he's melting down because financial collapse gnaws at normal people and could consume Trump with his frail ego fed by a fictitious image of wealth that made him someone who 2. simple people will want to be near. When the reality of his fraud and imaginary empire becomes clear as it all comes tumbling down, it remains to be seen if the crowds will remain to be be around a financial failure who's coming unglued.
Feb 20 9 tweets 2 min read
1. Something about this photo bothered me, beyond the obvious. At first it was the Exit sign that looks like it's above a window. And old wood look was not Mar-a-Logo gaudy gilded gauche. Then I thought, why is Johnson there? It occupied my mind for a bit and here's my analysis. Image 2. First, the NY Post today confirmed my guess that they were at Trump's West Palm golf course today, not Mar-a-Lago. The style was all wrong. It's obvious that the Hitler Youth calendar boy didn't go there to play golf so why meet there? Of course that's where Trump was but Image