Partner at Flint Global. Policy fellow at Onward. Former adviser to Chancellors Philip Hammond and Sajid Javid.
Jun 15, 2023 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Large scale Covid and energy support packages were the right policy response. But they have cemented the idea that the government can and should act to take away all economic pain. It can’t and shouldn’t.
Short🧵w/ 4 reasons why subsidising mortgage payments is a terrible idea:
1/ Inflation. Mortgage payments are one of the main transmission mechanisms the Bank of England has to cool demand. Subsidising mortgage payments acts against that, making it harder to get inflation down. This is terrible economics and bad politics.
Nov 8, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
We have fundamentally different views of Conservatism
Yours seems to take its starting point as 1979 + wants to use the same ideological template in all circumstances
Mine believes Cons history is much deeper + is about applying enduring principles to changing circumstances 1/
On tax, Cons history littered w/ examples of Tories raising tax when necessary: Pitt first introduced income tax, Peel made it permanent, Austen Chamberlain introduced corp tax...
...and obvs more recently Howe / Lamont / Clarke / Osborne / Sunak have all done big tax rises 2/
Nov 7, 2022 • 23 tweets • 6 min read
Easy to dismiss Trussonomics as an aberration, but was just latest iteration of Conservatism having become unmoored from its econ foundations
I've published a report for @ukonward today setting out a proposed updated framework for Conservative econ🧵 1/
ukonward.com/reports/the-ro…
For over 40 years, foundations of Conservative economic policy stood firm, succinctly put by Lawson in his ’84 Mais Lecture:
British experiment consists of seeking “to provide increasing freedom for markets to work within a framework of firm monetary and fiscal discipline” /2
Sep 28, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Lots of focus understandably on the immediate crisis today
But w/in weeks seems likely HMG is going to need to set out an Osborne-scale fiscal consolidation plan
Tory Party needs to get real fast about what doing this through spending cuts alone would actually mean🧵1/
W/ markets volatile hard to know exactly how big a consolidation will be needed. But RF analysis last week suggested c£35b to get debt falling + things have obvs got worse since
That's Osborne 2010 levels of savings. See this from @TorstenBell et al 2/
Hard to overstate the hit to living standards the UK faces over the next couple of years - and the potentially grim political consequences for the Tories
🧵on Rishi Sunak's choices at next week's Spring Statement - now an exercise all about political + economic damage limitation
Ukraine crisis means cost of living crunch which was coming will be even worse - potentially biggest squeeze on incomes in 50 yrs
Will obviously be v difficult for millions of households - see below from IFS - and inevitable Tories take a serious political hit
Sep 17, 2021 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
No great surprise if the Chancellor goes for this fairly tried and tested approach on the fiscal rules.
But I do think it throws up an interesting question - and potential opportunity - for Labour. THREAD
2/ March Budget saw biggest tax rises in 25 yrs + the Tories ended up getting a poll bump from it (albeit there was no manifesto breach). Public are receptive to a government willing to make tough choices, particularly given Covid has heightened their concern re: public finances
Jun 12, 2020 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
Good news: the Chancellor will never see a worse month than April (bookmark this). Minus 20% is about x10 worse than the worst quarter in the GFC. Only way is up. But clearly huge challenges for Rishi Sunak as he works on HMG's recovery plans due to be set out in July (THREAD)
HMT view will be this isn’t a one shot game. Not all support needs to/should be unleashed asap. Big uncertainty as to path of recovery, needs an agile response. July “moment” best seen as the start w/ autumn Budget/SR also crucial, esp since tax measures likely to wait until then
Apr 27, 2020 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
6 weeks ago there was optimism econ could bounce back quickly post-lockdown. Reality is now that next phase will be “new normal” of learning to live with Covid until a long-term exit (eg vaccine, comprehensive test + trace). Clearly has big implications for econ response (THREAD)
Challenge is how we get the economy from where we are now (operating maybe at 2/3rd normal levels) to as close to full capacity as possible while keeping people safe, until that long-term exit is achieved.
Dec 5, 2019 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
If the Tories win,HMT is going to have a real job managing expectations ahead of Budget. By historic standards there is v little headroom against the new fiscal rules: 5b a year against c700b current spending. Hammond left office with 27b of headroom against his deficit target 1/
This could easily be wiped out if the OBR downgrade their forcecast for the economy/public finances. HMT will therefore want to build up a much bigger buffer to guard against future forecast moves / unexpected spending pressures. That means raising some tax at some point 2/
