At FLOW, we have been following a unique situation involving the San Juan Basin Royalty Trust. What follows is not investment advice, it's information to create awareness. We think $SJT has become the wrong vehicle, and the undeveloped value has become much more valuable. 1/n This thread is an outreach, contact us if you are already involved and are interested in talking about strategic options.

In mid-2023 we noticed that Logos had drilled some really good gas wells in the Mancos formation.

With data through August, we can see that these wells are outperforming EOG's Dorado. The sample size is still very small, but Logos is onto something.

Note: there is a ton of vertical well control in this area, it's unlikely Logos just took a wild chance.

Dorado is an interesting comparison, because it's well known, and is probably the best "slightly out of the money" gas asset in the L48

So, now that a year has past and the $XOM $PXD deal has closed, it's a good time to review how FLOW understood the deal in real time, connected the capital markets to the subsurface, and predicted not just the deal, but also the premium. Importantly, this frame work drives out understanding of the Permian today.

Start with the rumor in April of 2023 as published by our friend @CollinEatonHC "How is XOM and PXD 1+1=3?" That's what appeared in my inbox.

In oil and gas, we are very good at thinking the other industry silos are idiots. This hedge fund manager knew that there had to more to value creation than M&A cost cutting... He wanted to understand the engineering that so seldom gets explained

Good article from @CollinEatonHC !
Draws on FLOWs research and analytics.
...A little more to know, because the "sky isn't falling", but it's getting more difficult.

-Commodity prices and capex control will need to reflect the situation ... more...

wsj.com/articles/u-s-s… The Permian is so good, we've become spoiled.
Anyone remember 2017? The failure rate was really high.

The Permian gave us consistency, and we got used to it

Lots of well performance discussion!

Here's the thing, just get it right the first time

If you are a Midstream Co - you can't just grumble, you still need to transact (We do a lot of this)

If you are in public equities, you might still find long value with lower results 1/n In our known resource plays, the variables are known.

It's just a matter of harnessing the data and the workflow, and having a bit of direction.

But right now it seems like most people have hit the iceberg in one way or another

Show you a couple things:
-How good are FLOW's models
-What the impact of hedging POLICY does to a stock

FIRST:
Here's an oil name that trades off the front month price deck. Even with natty running. Right on the model.
Management gets a lot of credit (see next) Here's a name that trades off the 12-mo contracts.
This company has a stupid hedging policy, and the stock trades worse

So on a day like today, here's how FLOW is assessing the moves. First, what is cheapening on our models. We look at the comparison of moves in real time. Of those names that are moving, what is rich and what is cheap.

Had a great time yesterday at the AAPG Mid-Continent Section Convention. I presented on the importance of using data to make uncomfortable decisions.

I titled the presentation, Oil & Gas Data is not your Friend.

I'd like to share some of my slides. I used Ross from Friends to represent how we want to interact with data. Ross is wishy washy, but he wants you to like him. This is the wrong approach. Coach Taylor wants his team to have "Clear Eyes" - This is the whole point.