Founder & CIO, Totem Macro. Zero bullshit uncorrelated alpha. Flows-based macro, lovers of linkages, scotch egg enthusiasts. Keep calm and jamon. Not advice.
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May 18 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
@PauloMacro
After watching this it’s much worse than just the rate cuts advice…line by line it’s almost entirely the opposite of true. Low income wages are rising the fastest not the slowest. Floating rate consumer debt is a tiny fraction of overall income and debt, not a large one. High rates of debt service due to rates largely get paid to foreigners given the huge gross external debts (therefore not impacting domestic spending much at all). The fiscal deficit didn’t blow out due to rates. It blew out because of a lack of capital gains in 2023 after the bubble bust.
Dec 9, 2022 • 8 tweets • 1 min read
Gonna do a little thread here (will not use the emoji to suppress gag reflex) about US money printing and deposits...a couple misconceptions are bugging me.
1) When the Fed buys a bond from a commercial bank, no deposit is created. It's an asset switch. One fewer bond, one more reserve asset (base money).
