the only thing that changed in recent days is; the number of coins that look good on HTFs has diminished

only a few holding up well

so I get to consolidate my focus on a few, and if the rest want my attention they have to prove why they deserve it

pretty comfy position tbh

gm what your feed won’t tell you is that the attention economy in a bear market is easier to navigate because it’s not as diluted as it is in a bull

there’s like a maximum ~2 things worth discussing at any given time

kinda same concept now but not as extreme

"Comparison is the thief of joy".

Probably one of the most important threads I'll ever write: Most of you reading this likely spend a large portion of your time on the internet communicating with, or viewing other people's thoughts.

It's incredibly easy to compare yourself to pseudo-anonymous people who seem like they're always doing well.

"Don't buy coins from the previous cycle. Just buy the new coins. They're more likely to rip since there are no bagholders."

You hear this statement all the time, but is it true?

New Coins vs. Old Coins for the next bull market.

Let's discuss. > "Don't buy coins from the previous cycle. Just buy the new coins. They're more likely to rip since there are no bagholders."

Okay cool.

I did, and my account is down -99%.

Now what?

market is boring, let’s do a smol thread:

you may not even realize it, but your bad habits are enabled by ‘ease of access’ in today’s era of trading. Before we get into it, let’s acknowledge that it’s easy to develop bad habits in trading to begin with.

Think about it.

Even if you’re unprofitable, every time you’ve entered a trade; you had hope.

At times like this, not uncommon for people to reach out to me and ask for help.

"I'm underwater. I oversized. Idk what to do. What would you do if you were me?"

Breaks my heart, but we've all been there before, so I'll tell you what I told myself once upon a time... "Do what allows you to sleep best at night".

Compiling all the threads I've written on trading/markets.

A thread of threads.

Hope you get value from it.

Much love🖤 Discretion:

https://twitter.com/TraderMercury/status/1658494697998888963?s=20

A lot of trading has to do with trying to refrain from succumbing to recency bias, whilst avoiding getting lulled into a state of complacency.

Quick thread on this phenomena, and how it's relevant to today's market. "What is Recency Bias?"

The greatest edge in discretionary trading.

A thread🧵: It's no secret that your edge in discretionary trading will always be...

wait for it...

...

your discretion!🤯

But, your discretion in the form of what, though? What exactly is intuition? and how does more experience actually benefit your discretion?

Let's answer that.

> I speculate on $BTC fundamentals driving price at $20k

> My system flips in agreement with my bullish thoughts at $23k.

> Trend sustains until 31k, then shifts entirely at ~29k.

From there, all bullish arguments I’ve had are invalid, so I’m able to argue the bearish side. For me as a trend trader; the same way I’m able to justify an expectation is the same way I’m able to invalidate that expectation.

So for the entire rally since $23k, I’m arguing that Daily Market Structure is bullish, we’re trending above key MAs, and flipping horizontal levels

~impulsive profit taking~🧵

Relating this back to 2019 me, it’s something I struggled with terribly.

I previously mentioned that overtrading would be the downfall of many in ‘23

that applies for profit taking too. I know too many people personally who’ve absolutely nailed this move from an analytical perspective, but have failed in the execution department due to overtrading.

I can’t blame them, it’s a difficult task.

https://twitter.com/tradermercury/status/1616780125369933824?s=46&t=L5bTXKhorMZuVbnf_HPQCw

"NOOOO YOU CAN'T BE BULLISH ON CRYPTO, WHAT ABOUT THE STOCK MARKET?😭"

yeah, it's bullish too. What about it? Fun fact: Every time in the past 11 years when we've reclaimed 200DMAs after testing 200WMAs, we've gone on to continue a multi-year bull market.

RSI traders - you’re probably better off just removing the indicator for awhile.

The market didn’t care about your bull divs on the way down.

It’s not gonna care about your bear divs on the way up. By “not care”, I mean; you might get a -5% pullback, sure. But the market will probably force you into buying back higher.

Recency bias is a hot-topic. Your RSI is *literally* calculated in such a way that it automatically succumbs to it in the current environment.

I spent all year playing the rallies, and adjusting to the downside thereafter.

I was called an idiot and told I was coping for being just as bearish at the bottom as I was since $60k. Even after saying $17.4k = ---> $18.5k the same day it happened. The ridiculing continued

https://twitter.com/TraderMercury/status/1613203263448399873?s=20&t=LMr_wl_ojZZJ_LSxRqJGtw

Forests <> Markets 🧵

[Repost] The fire has long been extinguished.

The forest has since continued to feel the residual effects of ash cementing the ground.

Amidst the chaos, fungus was allowed to thrive.

There comes a time where the market has every reason to go down - FUD, news catalysts, ‘logical’ resistance areas, extreme momentum, etc. but still finds it’s way making a higher high.

If that time is now, you don’t want to be the one coping on sidelines/revenge shorting. Give yourself a quick history lesson and go back and look at range breakouts of previous cycle bottoms (or even just macro bottoms).

Price doesn’t ‘need’ to pullback. It doesn’t ‘need’ to make sense. And there doesn’t ‘need’ to be a narrative behind the buying.

On a serious note,

I’ve read the Bitcoin white paper. I understand what Ethereum does. I’m a strong believer of the fundamentals.

And yet my reasoning for Crypto’s long-term success has nothing to do with fundamentals themselves. Let’s be real for a second:

ADA has an 11B mcap.

DOT has a 6B mcap.

You’ve never been betting on fundamentals.

You’ve been betting on good marketing, memorability, and human greed.

Quick thread consisting of some random tips that might be helpful to my fellow traders. Stuff to think about: Copytrading others can make you some cash, but I’d imagine you’re here to generate wealth. Big difference between the two. Nobody gonna manage your portfolio for you. Figure it out

I get a lot of questions along the lines of "Merc, we're testing ______ are you gonna look for shorts?".

In a bear market, I never really look for shorts, I just let them find me instead.

Few reasons: - Shorting in a bear market is, on paper, comparable to longing during a bull market, but in reality the two aren't even close.

You don't have to be a genius to understand that upside is infinite* (undetermined*) and downside is limited.

Complacency.

An emotional state that every person reading this will eventually find themselves in regardless of their current positioning.

Come learn how to acknowledge your emotions with me to better counteract them when you catch yourself lulling.

Let's dive into it: There's 2 key ways that complacency will effect you.

1) As a winner

2) As a loser

You're not fighting the expansion of a 4-month long value area, are you anon?

I haven't shutup about this thought process since before it even was relevant.

https://twitter.com/TraderMercury/status/1524023074621992969

Exhibit A:

https://twitter.com/TraderMercury/status/1522583503833075712?s=20&t=cdMJHNyN2o3NvspqMkFDww

Part of me wants to sit at the screen and wait for tae Kwon dont to tweet something.

Part of me wants to leave the house and go enjoy the nice weather/maybe go to the gym.

What do. Timing is everything, innit