Election postmortem:

Platforms didn't matter much this election. Maybe they never do but they should.

I believe in future elections if we are to stave off Conservative wins ideas and results need to be much more at the forefront of messaging during the campaign and in-between. Liberals had the best and frankly the only serious platform that addressed actual issues but failed to communicate this effectively.

They utterly failed to fend off the NDP's characterization of them as having accomplished nothing on climate, poverty, boil water advisories, etc

Election prediction based on my own pseudo poll election tossup meta analysis spreadsheet:

LIB: 172 (33.2%)
CPC: 112 (32.2%)
NDP: 26 (17.3%)
BQ: 27 (6.9%)
G: 1 (2.1%)
PPC: 0 (6.9%) I computed the last polling averages along with those pollsters errors vs actual election results.

Based on this I determined following national corrections to the polls:
LIB: +1.5%
CPC: +1.7%
NDP: -1.8%
BQ: 0%
G: -1.1%
PPC: 0%

We talk about how leaders will respond to a crisis: The "finger on the button" moments.

We saw how Trudeau handled a crisis first hand and the unprecedented measures he had the courage to take.

The pandemic has been hard on everyone. I remember who helped us get through it. Liberals procured vaccines, PPE, and ventilators.
They provided supports to make sure we could stay home and safe.
They stepped up with the army, nurses, doctors, vaccination clinics, and any other request from the provinces.
They provided the lion share of funding (80%+).

Reading through the NDP costing. I find it most interesting what isn't there.

We've all heard the complaints that the Liberals cut the overall health transfers (not true BTW).

The NDP are not increasing the health transfer. There have allocated no funds for it. NDP also complain that the Liberals cut the pandemic supports and they never would.

Yet they are planning on cutting the Canada Recovery Benefit, CEWS, and the emergency rent subsidy by the end of the year.

People tell me not to believe the Liberals on the economy. I should listen to BNN Bloomberg for the truth.

Okay:
bnnbloomberg.ca/robust-job-gai… "Report depicts a labor market that strengthened over the summer as high vaccination rates allowed businesses to reopen and hire back staff.

It may also quell fears that generous support programs from PMJT’s government kept some workers from seeking employment."

Debate commentary:

Overall the debate was milquetoast. There was no real opportunity to have meaningful interactions. Too many people. Too horrid a format.

As to actual content and memorable moments? The only things that stuck out for me were details and lack thereof. O'Toole kept repeating his $60B health transfer and no one was able to articulate that it is entirely back-loaded and will provide no meaningful investment for an entire first term.

That was disappointing.

Overall Trudeau was very fired up. I think he gave good answers on covid, climate, gun control, and the importance of the election. I don't like Blanchet's politics much so I'm perhaps skewed but I think he was effective for those who believe in Quebec sovereignty.

He pounded home the individual powers of the province and railed against interference in that.

Random Debate Commentary Thread:

O'Toole argues that daily tests are a preferable alternative to vaccination.

Singh says that despite claiming Trudeau is pocketing student loan interest the gov't is working and no need for an election. O'Toole says we are in a health crisis and now is no time for an election. A health crisis he doesn't want to help along with vaccine mandates.

"Liberals steal NDP ideas and implement them!"

The NDP have never been able to implement any of their policies without the help of the Liberals. That's not an attack - it's just the truth.

Despite what Singh says the Liberals are not the enemy. Some on the extremes of the political spectrum want us to believe that everything is simple. That solving long standing problems can be resolved with a simple yay vote in the House of Commons.

It would be great if this were true... but it isn't.

I keep seeing comments today comparing the Liberal platform to the NDP's Guaranteed Basic Income.

Problem is: There is no proposal in the NDP's platform for such a program. There are no numbers, no details, no timelines.

This is from the NDP's platform, pg 28 The NDP are calling this Guaranteed Livable Income but if you look at it what they are actually proposing is expanding income security programs until everyone in Canada HAS a livable income.

There's no CERB like replacement program being proposed here.

Reading through Liberal platform. Will make some comments in this thread as thoughts occur.

There are probably better sources for this info than me but I like to do it anyway! Platform starts with Covid.

Mandatory vaccination for modes of transport that are under federal regulation (trains, flights, cruise ships, etc).

Same for federal public service.

The vast majority of Canadians I know are appalled at the behavior we've seen by these racist, hate filled protesters.

I find it unfortunate that some are so beholden to partisan ideals as to dismiss this mob and what it means for our country as a scheme or unimportant. We need only look to the south to see how democracy can get wildly out of control if the anger and conspiracies take hold in a significant segment of the population.

We do not want this here... but it's already here.

I don't understand why Singh has to make everything personal and make everything into an attack.

He can't detail his own plans but he's got lots of detailed misinformation to attack Trudeau with.

He says he'll fight for us but he spends all his time fighting Trudeau. In terms of actual platform a very large portion of what Singh proposes is already underway.

Yet if you listen to Singh it sounds like the country is a disaster and we've accomplished absolutely nothing.

This is of course demonstrably false.

We talk about the importance of evidence based policy. That is relying on experts and data to draft effective policy.

Why also need evidence based political coverage. That is relying on experts and data to report on topics of import.

Why is coverage dominated by columnists? I don't mind the occasional insider political story. I don't mind the occasional political breakdown/impact analysis of policy.

But that's like 90% of the coverage right now. It's dominating and influencing the election.

Canada's current emissions target is 40-45% below 2005 by 2030.

NDP propose 50% reduction. NDP propose creating a Climate Accountability Office to "make recommendations on how to achieve our goals."

They will continue with carbon pricing but make it "fairer."

There will never be an NDP government.

This is not because the NDP will never win an election. It's because after they do within short order the core of the NDP declare them as failures and not true to NDP beliefs. I believe for the most part the Alberta NDP under Notley governed quite well. I think Horgan too has governed fairly well.

Neither of them are/were perfect but they managed the economy, addressed important issues of the day all while trying to advance social causes.

Just my privileged opinion, naturally, but I find many people are missing the whole point of building a fair and just society when they say stuff like, "I hope white men become the diversity hire!" or "We need every vote to count so those conservatives never have a voice!" The point of this whole incredibly hard and long process of building a worthwhile society isn't just to swing back and forth over what group it is acceptable to marginalize.

CPC should have no objection to corporations being able to redact trade secrets and other private details from the contracts. Those details have nothing to do with enhancing the govt's response to the pandemic.

The efficacy of the response is based on science not personal info. The CPC instead want to get the costs, ownership, trade practices, and employment details so they can create a narrative of their choosing. They seek to tarnish the gov't for their own purposes and not improve the pandemic response in any way.

People too often forget in their rush to score political points that there are real people involved.

We should've had a sobering reminder of this during the pandemic with so many relying on the govt for their rent and food. The real political winners would've been those that put aside their personal political motivations and chose to cooperate to help get Canada through this.

During the worst of times people's character comes out. Do they rise up and lead or look out for their own self interests?

There are legitimate reasons I do not support the NDP this election. And it's not fear.

NDP want to re-open NAFTA. This is a fools errand. This is risking Canadian jobs and livelihoods for nothing other than pandering to the anti-trade crowd. Harper tried the party of one thing. It didn't work. Sadly for Mr. Singh he lost 1/3rd of his team. They quit. He has demonstrated a distinct lack of knowledge on complex matters. His team is not ready.

Some fact checking of the LPC claim that they've reached 75% of the target to 2030 already. This chart below demonstrates the claim. The projected result of the policies (2018 additional measures) vs doing nothing under Harper.

It's about 75% of the way there. This chart does not include the additional measures announced by LPC this campaign. It also does not include the clawbacks by Doug Ford, which will make the situation somewhat worse (ON was doing more than the backstop program would do by itself).