1/12 (antivaxxers, read the entire thread or get ignored/blocked)

This bit of theater from Sen Ron Johnson has been floating around this week.

He is lying. He used made-up numbers and mischaracterized VAERS)

I'll break it down with source links.

https://twitter.com/liz_churchill10/status/1998227056811999262

2/12

He holds up this sheet with a bunch of made-up numbers. None of these numbers are in VAERS. They are entirely made-up.

1/8

"They reported other deaths as COVID" is blowing up after RFK's testimony.

This is FALSE. If other causes of death had been reported as COVID, OTHER CAUSES WOULD HAVE BEEN DOWN. They weren't.

I will IGNORE and BLOCK all objections from people who didn't read the thread. 2/2

The increases in total deaths in 2020 and 2021 substantially EXCEEDED the number of reported COVID deaths. This, inarguably, PROVES that there was no detectable substitution from other causes of death to COVID.

Updated US mortality table.

Population, deaths, death rates.

Source links follow in the thread. Population 2009: census.gov/data/tables/20…
Population 2010-2019: census.gov/data/tables/ti…
Population, 2020-2023: census.gov/data/tables/ti…
Deaths 2009: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24974587/#:~:t…
Deaths 2010: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24979972/#:~:t…
Deaths 2011: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26222597/#:~:t…

Definitive "flu disappeared" thread, dispelling the myths.
1. The flu didn't disappear
2. The CDC never reported that the flu disappeared
3. There were MORE influenza deaths in 2020 than 2019
4. COVID deaths weren't created by swapping for influenza. The flu didn't disappear. Yes, starting in the summer of 2020, the impact of influenza almost vanished in the Southern Hemisphere. There is no doubt that this was due to the combination of a near-total stop in air travel, closures of public gatherings, and sanitization.

Very stable genius, indeed.

"We're gonna get down, not 30% or 40%, which would be great, not 50 or 60, no. We're going to get them down 1000%, 600%, 500%, 1,500%, numbers that are not even thought to be achievable." In case you're wondering, how this Very Stable Genius it's going to get drug companies to start paying us to take their drugs, well, he's got all that figured out too. He's going to force German automakers to give us free drugs.

Not joking.

A thread

A week of traumatic indicators for the US economy. It’s not one thing, but everything all at once
-Dollar DOWN (=inflation)
-Consumer confidence DOWN
-Consumer spending DOWN
-Hiring DOWN
-Layoffs UP
-62K government jobs CUT
-Unemployment UP
-Stock market DOWN Starting with the most consequential.

The US dollar dropped 4.2% against the Euro this week. This is the literal definition of inflation. The dollars in your bank account are worth almost 5% less than they were on Monday morning.

Beautiful irony.

The GOP loves them some DOGE, as long as it's somebody else getting punished.

mediaite.com/tv/jesse-watte… In related news. GOP Sen, Shelley Moore Capito, WV: Please don't cut funding for the EPA's green bus program, because those buses are made in my state.

politico.com/news/2025/02/0…

I need to post an apology and retraction. It appears that I was mis-informed regarding the CDC Wonder platform.

The data updated last night, a day late. But, there are still some disturbing signs in the platform. Queries still do not save and multiple links are disabled. I had been given information from a data engineer that it was taken down, yesterday's standard update didn't happen (although, it eventually did - thank you, @Jean__Fisch for keeping me honest)

I have confirmed, that the death certificate reporting systems of the United States, which have been publicly available for decades, are now shut down, per the orders of the Trump Administration. I'll do my best to assemble year-end reports, from all the states, as soon as they're available.

Unfortunately, Texas hasn't updated their reporting in years.

Every day, there are posts, claiming that hospitals were paid to report COVID deaths.

These posts never specify, who would have been making these payments.

This is false. No program ever existed to pay hospitals for COVID deaths. And, the numbers prove it wasn’t happening. Some posts even specify an amount for reporting a COVID death. I’ve seen numbers ranging from $25K to $300K. People actually believe there was a program that paid $20B to $200B to over 6,000 hospitals in 800K transactions, yet ZERO documentation of this program exists.

Paradox Explained:
Q: How can the majority of COVID deaths have occurred in ages 75+, yet the biggest impact of COVID was among those 25-54?

A: The majority of ALL deaths occur in ages 75+, proportion of COVID deaths in that age group was LESS than the proportion of total deaths For this explanation, I'm looking at natural causes of death only. In ages 15-34, the majority (69%) of deaths are from external causes (accidents [including accidental overdoses], suicides, homicides).

To remove distortions from the data, I'm just looking at natural causes.

Leading causes of death series, #5 Influenza & Pneumonia

This one is sure to stir some controversy.

I'll answer a big question first:
Why Influenza AND Pneumonia, why not just look at influenza? Answer: The CDC estimates the number of influenza deaths, each year, in the "Disease Burden of The Flu" page. This is NOT the actual number of death certificates with Influenza as an underlying cause.

Disease Burden of the Flu page: cdc.gov/flu/about/burd…

Is influenza, "just the flu?" (a thread)

Seriously, I think that the mortality impact of influenza could be greatly underestimated. We saw how COVID drove excess non-COVID deaths.

Sure looks like influenza does the same thing. Note, it always looks like there’s a drop in Feb and an increase in Mar, that’s mostly an effect of the length of the month. 28 or 29 days vs 31.

Got a request to do yesterday's cancer mortality post by age group.

1st, proportionality.

Cancer mortality is concentrated above age 45. 2.9% of US cancer deaths are in the under 45 population.

Under 25 years of age show a huge amount of weekly variability, but that's not really meaningful with such low numbers. No real changes seen in annual numbers.

I was asked to take a look at this Dr Drew show video featuring John Beaudoin, from 5 months ago to examine the validity of what is being claimed.

Short answer: Beaudoin talks about meaningless metrics on a tiny sample.

Explained in the thread
The video starts with about 20 minutes of story-telling where Beaudoin runs through nonsense claims and antivax boasts such as:
- The pandemic only lasted 8 months
- Masks are tyranny
-How he's worked with Children's Health Defense

At about 21:00 he finally gets into the data

Excess deaths vs COVID vaccine uptake rate 2021 and 2021, comparison of European countries. I just discovered I had access to this data set all along, and didn't realize it. The Economist made all their data available in Github.

R-squared = 0.64 This shows a reasonably strong negative correlation, meaning the countries with the highest vaccine uptake rates had the lowest excess death rates.

Interesting to note that no country with uptake rates over 2 doses per person saw excess deaths over 300/100K pop.

Finally found a county, excess deaths data set. I ran it against COVID vaccine administration rates by county for full year 2021 and 2022. Clearly there’s a negative correlation between excess death rates and vaccine administration rates

As always: Source links follow the thread To make some sense of this, I split the graph in half vertically. Approximately half the country (53.0%) lives in counties with > than 2 doses per person and half in counties with < than 2 doses per person.

Trending today, cardiac arrest in athletes

Cardiac arrest deaths in young people (under 35) are extremely rare. Less than 300 per year in a population.

There as been no statistically significant change in card arrest deaths under 35, ever. The previous graph does show large, percent increases in 2020 (+20.2%) and 2021 (+18.1%). There was a 14% drop in 2022.

While these are big percents, the actual numbers of the increases are relatively small, +41 in 2020 and +40 in 2021.

The fact that there were MORE COVID deaths in 2021 than 2020 is NOT evidence that vaccines don't work.

A calendar year is a meaningless. It's an arbitrary start and end of a measurement period.

There were 41 weeks of COVID deaths in 2020, 52 in 2021. But there's MORE to it. There were 113 COVID deaths in the first 11 weeks of 2020, most weeks had zero.

There were 146,630 COVID deaths in the first 11 weeks of 2021.

Yeah!!

Michael Flynn is launching an ecommerce platform for purebloods.

You can find, "unvaccinated patriot businesses," purchase mRNA-free blood, mRNA-free sperm, find a fun event to attend, or grab a quick hookup with an unvaccinated partner. 4thepure.com At these prices, who can afford NOT to join in all the unvaccinated fun.

VAERS thread, Sorry, it’s a long one.

Those who follow me know that I’ve shown how VAERS isn’t a valid measurement tool.

But, I’ve just completed a deep dive into VAERS data, to see what’s really in actual VAERS reported deaths. Today, I’ll walk through the general information that I found. I also read every single report issued for someone under 18, and I’ll post on that in another thread later this week. I’ll probably read a number more, specifically looking under the age of 40 for that thread.