Focusing on economic cycles, the markets & occasionally politics. Always try to remain objective & focus on exchanging ideas, but don't always succeed.
Apr 27, 2023 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Important for industry experts to provide housing forecasts to the decimal for current year. However, I think these forecasts will be more helpful for individuals making housing decisions: 1) Selection & prices will be better over the next 2 yrs than it is now. Better to wait.
2) It will be cheaper to rent than own for most markets for the next 5-10 yrs. 3) It's not too late to sell & capture equity before it's lost. 4) Hottest pandemic markets likely to see home prices drop 40+% from peak, most others 10%-20%. 5) No boom following this bust.
Feb 15, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Hard to believe, but lows may be in:
Most market lows follow this pattern: 1) Spike in volatility & bearish extremes: ✔️ 2) Strong rebound: ✔️ 3) Retest: ✔️ 5) Market shrugging off bad news: Today's PPI ✔️ 6) Strong upside follow through: TBD
