Turner Novak.🍌🧢 Profile picture
havin fun at @BananaCap_
popthetop Profile picture Vamsi Duvvuri Profile picture MichaelLitman.ethᵍᵐ Profile picture Michael Carroll Profile picture Sunyan Lee Profile picture 6 added to My Authors
Sep 23, 2021 15 tweets 6 min read
Very excited to invest in VINN and support @calebbernabe_ and team!

They have built an incredible product and the foundations of capital efficient business in a trillion dollar market.

Quick thread on my largest publicly announced investment to-date:

forbes.com/sites/ninawolp… VINN has a crazy business model: they help consumers buy cars online but hold zero of their own inventory.

It’s an online marketplace with a very simple and effective product connecting consumers and cars at local dealerships.
Sep 12, 2021 11 tweets 4 min read
Here’s the story of how I almost sold my company to Time Warner in 2000 for hundreds of billions of dollars - but instead walked away with nothing.

🧵 🧵 👇 👇 It was Nov 19th, 1999. I had spent the last 34 hours (maybe 35 hours) coding.

But that wasn’t the full story - I‘d been building non-stop the first 34 years of my life.

I learned to code in the hospital the night I was born and have been inseparable from a PC ever since.
Apr 16, 2021 9 tweets 3 min read
Quick update thread on the Stitch Fix thesis: The tl;dr is Stitch Fix has permission from 3.9m consumers to auto ship them products. It’s ecom’s “recommended bar” but IRL and converts at 10-20%. They know what will sell before its even produced. Can monetize this from suppliers, with private label, + their Direct Buy app.
Feb 25, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
“Online friend finding and social discovery is currently growing twice as fast as online dating, and we think it will be a 2x larger market as well" - Match Group

👀 👀 👀 fwiw, all these apps will add audio rooms (long $API), video rooms, games, messaging tools that reduce friction of self expression (AR filters, stickers), subscriptions, etc.

Winners will figure out moderation at scale, move fastest on new features, and crack long-term retention
Feb 23, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
Spotify's Stream On event:

"By 2025, we could have 50m creators on our platform, whose art is enjoyed by 1b users around the world. We want to be the place educators, entrepreneurs, storytellers, and artists can touch the world through audio" - @eldsjal

Spotify says it has 40% market share of music streaming and will get to a similar share in podcasting.

Paid-audio increases from $7b to $40b/yr. Combined with podcasting, becomes a $55b opportunity.

Feb 13, 2021 5 tweets 1 min read
looking at my 25 startups investments in 2019-20, the two best performing consumer social co’s are literally just built on top of slack and WhatsApp. The founders created for a new format that was underserved, moved quick building, and gradually built their own app over time. tbt to this tweet, thank you to all the awesome people and founders I connected with over this!
Feb 6, 2021 10 tweets 4 min read
Quick thoughts + charts on $SNAP Q4 earnings For the first time ever, Snap's largest user base is now Rest of World, or users outside North America and Europe
Jan 25, 2021 5 tweets 1 min read
For everyone asking, current positioning:

Cash 18.4%
SNAP 27.1%
GME 12.0%
PDD 8.2%
SNAP Calls 7.2%
SFIX 6.5%
DIS 6.2%
SQ 5.9%
TWLO 4.7%
UBER 2.0%
SHOP 1.9%

Sold all my GME calls on the 22nd. Dumb luck easing into the stock on the 11th + 12th. Going to start trimming it today. I also took 2x profits off the table on the FUBO puts, sold the rest at a loss a week later. This is why I very rarely short 😂
Nov 16, 2020 6 tweets 2 min read
Pinduoduo recently launched Duo Duo Maicai, which lets customers pick-up online orders from local shops. It was all analysts talked about on its Q3 earnings call last week and its stock jumped 30% the following two days.

Quick thread: A pick-up ecommerce model pools multiple last mile delivery legs into one trip. 20 orders becomes just one delivery.

This lowers logistics costs significantly, which unlocks ecommerce for lower priced products, new behaviors, and makes it more accessible for low income consumers
Aug 22, 2020 13 tweets 3 min read
Stitch Fix is likely a $100b company within 10 years. Quick thread: Stitch Fix owns a direct channel to recommend and ship products to 3.5m users (growing 20%/yr). Many are caught up in Pinduoduo’s "social commerce" model, but the real beauty is its ability to directly influence demand and thus optimize its operations and supply chain accordingly
Jul 22, 2020 16 tweets 4 min read
Snap Q2 earnings:

- 239m DAUs, up 10m in Q2 (4% QoQ, 18% YoY)
- $1.9b TTM revenue, Q2 up 17% YoY (32% thru July 19th)
- Implied 4.7b snaps sent per day, 20 per user (highest ever, growing 2x faster than DAUs)
- Time watching Snap Shows and AR playtime growing 2x faster than rev Snap Q2 usage metrics:

- DAU’s open 30x per day (up from 25 in Q3 ‘18)
- DAU growth smooth every month in Q2
- Android rebuild in 2019 drove 37% You RoW DAU growth
- India users up 100% YoY
- Thinks Snapchat's user opportunity is 2b (at 239m DAU's today)
Jul 20, 2020 9 tweets 5 min read
The first batch of Snap Minis launched today. This is an early step in Snap's app ecosystem that will help almost every company that uses the internet to acquire and retain customers.

Quick thread:

mashable.com/article/snap-m… If you're unfamiliar, Snapchat is used by over 88 million people in North America per day. The total time spent in the app by all Snapchat users in the US is nearly identical to Instagram.

👀The US is where IG, valued at ~$200 billion, makes most of its money
Jun 23, 2020 11 tweets 3 min read
I actively started writing on Substack in May and this week I'll cross 3,000 subscribers. Here's an update on:

- the strategy I used to break into VC
- what I’ve learned so far
- how I’m thinking about writing and investing moving forward Living in Michigan, Twitter has been essential. The playbook I initially used was:

- tweet and go deep on differentiated insights
- respond to everyone
- reach out to people with <10k followers I thought were undervalued
- hop on too many last minute flights
May 27, 2020 14 tweets 6 min read
A TikTok clone called Zynn suddenly appeared at the top of the US App Store today.

It looks like a giant referral pyramid scheme, but also may be getting bankrolled by one of TikTok's biggest rivals in China, which just raised $2 billion from one of its OTHER rivals. Zynn, which just released on Android yesterday, has been climbing the iOS charts for two weeks. It just hit #1 this morning.
May 21, 2020 7 tweets 2 min read
I wrote deep dive on how TikTok suddenly became the most culturally significant product in the world. It rode the tailwinds of AirPods and memes to reach over 1 billion DAU’s and is now the best way to create and consume video on mobile.

Some takeaways:

turner.substack.com/p/the-rise-of-… TikTok's parent company, ByteDance, is one of the fastest growing companies of all time. Most of its estimated ~$16-20 billion in 2019 revenue came from China, and most of it wasn't even from TIkTok.

Using Snap and Facebook as comps, ByteDance is likely worth over $200 billion.
Apr 28, 2020 10 tweets 3 min read
Shop is Shopify’s most significant product ever

- Launches with 16m users
- Aggregated supply to aggregate demand
- Each purchase spurs notifications that pull customers back into the ecosystem
- Gets it deeper into SMB + consumer finance

Quick thread:

techcrunch.com/2020/04/28/sho… Shopify originally launched this as Arrive, a convenient way for customers of independent Shopify merchants to track their packages.

Arrive had 16 million downloads before it rebranded to Shop today.

Apr 22, 2020 23 tweets 7 min read
Q1 earnings from Snap today:

- Added 11 million DAUs (up 5% from Q4, 20% YoY)
- Hints at 30-50% user growth in March
- Revenue up 44% in Q1 (was 58% through end of Feb)
- 75% of DAU's interact with AR daily (up from 70%)
- Arguably best quarter since IPO

investor.snap.com/~/media/Files/… Snap reported DAU's were up 11 million in Q1 (5% QoQ)

Very significant because Snap reports DAU's as an average over the ENTIRE quarter (FB + Twitter report as of final month, Pinterest as of final day)

It's possible Snap’s DAU's were up 30-60 million to end March (30-50% YoY)
Feb 24, 2020 4 tweets 1 min read
These #’s highlight YouTube’s ad load problem compared to TikTok:

15 second videos with a built-in ad break between each one (TikTok) > 15+ minute vids with long pre-rolls + some awkward mid-rolls (YouTube)

Don’t be surprised when TikTok is eventually valued higher than YouTube Just by the nature of how advertising works, YouTube also leaves a ton of value on the table to be captured by advertisers.

CPM’s have to rise + these video platforms will strategically move further into their own advertisers’ turfs (commerce, gaming, etc) to increase margins.
Jan 30, 2020 12 tweets 5 min read
Here's a thread with some charts based on Facebook's 2019 Q4 earnings that were released yesterday.

These first two charts highlights that the core $FB app hasn't grown much in North America over the past five years. This is important because... Facebook (the company) generates over 73% of its revenue in the US and Europe. Meanwhile, these countries only represent 29% of its the core Facebook app's user base. FB keeps the data close to its chest, but it's likely its other apps have a similar user / revenue breakdown.
May 10, 2019 8 tweets 3 min read
I just finished putting together my second fantasy VC portfolio. Here’s a quick thread with an overview of my process and a link to read the full PDF that includes a one-page write-up on each investment.

docs.google.com/document/d/1FN… My portfolio includes plays on restaurants, elevators, last mile delivery, computer vision, groceries, direct mail, weddings, school lunches, flowers, circular consumption, bees, taxes, employee perks, data management, stories for enterprise, micromobility, and digital avatars.
Apr 23, 2019 45 tweets 18 min read
Uber S-1 thoughts:

-AWS for transportation is its final form
-It's a modern day temp agency; driver churn is 3-5x below industry avg
-Eats cities profitable in 4-6 quarters, aggressive expansion impacted 2H‘18, 40% of users are new to Uber, and is a wedge into last mile delivery If you’re reading this, I’m assuming you’ve read other Uber S-1 takes. We all knew Uber was burning cash, but a lack of cohort data (both drivers and riders), and its core business metrics collapsing to end 2018, was surprising.